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Notre Dame will host Stanford on Saturday night in South Bend for one of the most anticipated matches of the fifth day of college football. Both teams are 4-0, ranked in the top 10 in most polls and looking forward to another win to strengthen their resume as mid-season 2018 approaches. And although it's early to think of the CFB playoffs, no matter which team wins, this game will certainly bring a big win that could count for the selection of the four teams of the committee in December.
With two timely turnovers in Oregon, Stanford beat the Ducks 38 to 31 in overtime last Saturday. This victory allowed the Cardinal to go 4-0 in all and 2-0 in Pac-12 this season. Coach David Shaw's team has already won some great victories against the states of San Diego State and USC. She must therefore face many trials before the match against Notre Dame. As usual, Stanford wants to rely on his ground game to anchor the offensive. However, quarterback K.J. Costello is in full break-in and the defense has played better than expected after conceding nearly six yards per game in 2017.
Notre Dame started her 2018 season with a bang. The Irish Fighting beat Michigan 24-17 in one of the best duels of Week 1, but delivered slow performances against Ball State (24-16) and Vanderbilt (22-17). Coach Brian Kelly needed a spark of his fault during the fourth week and he went from Brandon Wimbush to Ian Book at quarterback. The move paid off as Book led the Irish Fighting to a 56-27 victory over the Deacons Demon.
Notre Dame holds a 19-13 lead over Stanford. However, recent trends in this match have favored the cardinal. Stanford won 38-20 last season and has won four of the last five games against the Irish Fighting.
Stanford to Notre Dame
Start: Saturday, September 29 at 19:30 ET
TV channel: NBC
Propagate: Our Lady -5,5
Three things to watch
1. The defense of Notre Dame against Bryce Love
Under the leadership of first-year coordinator, Clark Lea, Notre Dame has shown stingy against running in 2018. The Fighting Irish feature a talented defensive front, anchored by lineman Jerry Tillery and linebacker Te'von Coney. This duo paves the way for advanced defense limiting opponents to just 3.5 yards per race and has not yet allowed a 30-yard or more run.
Although Notre Dame's defense was tough against the race, it will be put to the test on Saturday night by Stanford's offensive line and offensive midfielder Bryce Love. Last season, Love collected 125 yards in 20 races against the Fighting Irish and has accumulated 254 yards on 59 attempts this year. The senior has only one run of 40 yards or more in 2018, down from 15 in 17.. Love is not quite reproducing its previous totals, but the offensive line has also been struggling with injuries and could play with more consistency.
The battle in the trenches Saturday night between the defensive front of Notre Dame and the Stanford offensive line will be critical. Can the fighting Irish control the love and prevent the senior from generating some big sticks? Lea's defense would probably live with 100 points for Love, but 25 passes to overshadow that mark. However, the Cardinal does not depend solely on Love to take offense. He ran for only 29 yards against San Diego State and had only 89 against Oregon last week.
Related: Predictions for every college football match at the 5th week
2. Stanford QB K.J. Costello and achieve the goals
While Love's production is a bit lower than last season, Shaw and the staff are not worried. The emergence and development of quarterback K.J. Costello helped Stanford's attack to have more balance and to prevent the defenses from playing too much on love and ground play. The sophomore went from 1,056 yards and 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions in Stanford's first four games. In addition, Costello finishes 64% of his throws.
Costello being more comfortable in his second year as a starter, the Stanford offensive can take full advantage of his weapons on the outside. This group of versatile players has many assets, including the receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside (6 feet 3 inches) and tight ends Kaden Smith (6 feet 5 inches) and Colby Parkinson (6 feet 7 inches). This size on the outside or midfield allows Costello to take advantage of ball jumping situations, especially in the Red Arcega-Whiteside area.
Notre Dame will counter with a second pre-season match with American Julian Love at the cornerback, with the transfer of Navy Alohi Gilman boosting security. The Fighting Irish rank 18e nationally in defense of pass efficiency and allowed only two touchdowns in four games.
Will Costello pick up where he stopped last week against Oregon? And if so, how will Notre Dame's high school counter the big arms outside in individual clashes?
3. Notre Dame's offensive with Ian Book at the controls
After attending Notre Dame's offensive fight against Ball State and Vanderbilt, coach Brian Kelly decided to change centers. Brandon Wimbush was chosen in favor of Ian Book to help revive the attack by the pass. It's only a match, but the first feedback is positive for Kelly and the coordinator Chip Long. Book set fire to a Wake Forest defense struggling for 325 yards and two touchdowns in the air and added 43 yards rushing and three points on the floor.
As Book reached its first start of the 2018 season, Stanford would likely offer more resistance in defense. The cardinal started the year with some holes to fill, but this unit limits fouls to 5.02 yards per game. However, this unit lost 6.4 yards per game in last week's Oregon win, so coordinator Lance Anderson still has some work to do on that side of the ball.
The emergence of Book as a starter allowed Kelly and Long to use all the ground and prevent the defenses from loading the box to make things happen. Notre Dame does not lack talent in skill positions, and the offensive line remains strong even with Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey in the NFL. The Fighting Irish have four players with at least nine catches this year, including Alize Mack (12) and receiver Miles Boykin (18.6). The ground game relies on Tony Jones and Jafar Armstrong so far, but Dexter Williams is expected to join the group for portering after suspending the first four games due to suspension.
Is the performance of Notre Dame last week a sign of the future of this offense? Book's ability to deliver in the air certainly opens the way to larger games and less dependent on ground game and defense. However, while Book posted a good performance last week, the Stanford defense will be a good test for the second year. Can Notre Dame build on last Saturday's performance? Or will the cardinal find a way to slow Book and prove that the production of Fighting Irish last week was only one increase?
Final analysis
Considering that five of the last six contests were decided by one touchdown or less, a tight match should be scheduled on Saturday night. Will the Stanford offensive line be able to clear enough leads for Love to beat two big games? And if not, will Costello connect to enough big passes against a Notre Dame high school? When the Fighting Irish get the ball, the second start of Ian Book and the improved attack in passing deserve to be watched. Notre Dame has already won a huge win at home (Michigan) this season, and Brian Kelly's team should find a way to win this showdown on Saturday night.
Forecast: Notre Dame 27, Stanford 24
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