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Stephen Hawking, the physicist whose physical paralysis made him a symbol of the growing power of the human spirit, feared a race of "superhuman" capable of manipulating his own evolution.
Before dying in March, the Cambridge University professor predicted that people of this century could acquire the ability to edit human traits such as intelligence and aggression. And he feared that genetic engineering capacity would be concentrated in the hands of the rich.
Hawking evoked this future in a series of essays and papers published posthumously on Tuesday titled "Brief Answers to Big Questions," a postscript from his 1988 book "A Brief History of Time: The Big Bang". to black holes ", which has sold more than 10 million copies.
An excerpt published two days in advance by The Sunday Times highlights the latest thinking of the successful physicist and author beset by a degenerative motor neuron disease similar to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or Lou Gehrig's disease.
Humanity, he writes, "entered a new phase of what might be called self-developed evolution, in which we can change and improve our DNA. We have now mapped DNA, which means that we have read "the book of life" so that we can start writing corrections. "
Initially, he predicted, these modifications would be reserved for the repair of certain defects, such as muscular dystrophy, which are controlled by unique genes and thus allow relatively simple corrections.
"Nevertheless, I am sure that during this century, people will discover how to change intelligence and instincts such as aggression," wrote Hawking.
It would attempt to pass laws restricting the genetic engineering of human traits. "But some people will not be able to resist the temptation to improve human characteristics, such as the size of memory, disease resistance and the length of life," he said.
"Once such superhumans appear, there will be significant political problems with unimproved humans, who will not be able to compete," Hawking said. "Presumably, they will die or become irrelevant."
In the end, he envisioned a "race of self-designed beings who are improving at a faster and faster pace. If the human race manages to redefine itself, it will probably spread and colonize other planets and stars. "
In the excerpt, Hawking did not detail the disparities between the "superhuman" and the "unimproved", but an article accompanying the Sunday Times extract suggests that Hawking was specifically concerned that "people rich people may soon choose to change their own DNA and that of their children. " The article in the journal 's scientific editor draws a parallel with the eugenic movement of the twentieth century, similarly based on the premise that human improvement could result from genetic manipulation.
Some researchers and ethicists already fear that the edition of DNA eclipses existing standards. The apprehension concerns mainly CRISPR – "palindromic repetitions in evenly spaced groups" – which has gone from an element of bacterial defense to a means of modifying specified DNA sequences for the sake of improvement.
Gene editing technology has already been at the root of major patent litigation. It is hoped that this tool could be used to detect low cost diseases. At the same time, applications in the food industry have alarmed consumer groups and environmental groups.
Although Hawking saw himself as an "optimist", as he wrote in "Brief Answers to Big Questions," the book warns of a crazy technological ambition. He was particularly concerned that the promise of artificial intelligence – the possibility of eradicating disease and poverty – would blind his developers to the long-term costs that humans could lose control of their growth.
"You can imagine such technology surpassing financial markets, human researchers, human leaders and the possibility of submitting with weapons that we can not even understand," he wrote. "While the short-term impact of AI depends on whoever controls it, the long-term impact depends on the ability to control it."
Artificial intelligence capable of improving without human assistance could provide an intelligence "far beyond that of snails," warned Hawking.
Hawking, whose exploration of gravity and black holes marked a transformation of modern physics, has brought answers to a number of other mysteries. Among these are the long-term feasibility of life on Earth ("I consider it almost inevitable that a nuclear confrontation or environmental disaster will paralyze the Earth at some point in the next 1000 years"); the existence of God ("If you want, you can call the laws of science" God ", but it would not be a personal God that you would meet and ask questions"); and the biggest threat to the future of the planet ("collision of asteroids").
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