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A satellite image showing the assortment of disorganized cyclones across the Atlantic. (NOAA / RAMMB)
More rain is forecast in the far east of North Carolina because some of the residual moisture from Hurricane Florence is going backwards for a second pass into the already besieged area.
Three cyclones have formed in the tropical Atlantic since Friday: Tropical Depression Eleven, Tropical Storm Kirk and Subtropical Storm Leslie. Closer to home, however, part of what was once hurricane Florence now lies between the Bahamas and Bermuda – and could hit North Carolina again on Wednesday.
The evolution of ancient Florence was complicated, but after the lengthening of the storm and its melting with a hollow, some of the moisture and spin separated to the south and became an interesting feature of the big well predicted loop back to the east coast of the United States.
The forecast models do not suggest that the storm will be strong, even though it is forming, but the US and European models agree that it will likely bring unwanted rain in eastern North Carolina on Tuesday and Wednesday. An inch or less would be insignificant, but no matter what could exacerbate the already catastrophic flood that continues to flood the Carolinas.
In the lower end of the forecast spectrum, less than 0.5 inches of rain could fall in eastern North Carolina until Wednesday night. At the top, two to three centimeters of rain could fall in places such as New Bern, Morehead City and the outer banks, which were submerged by Hurricane Florence's destructive storm surge.
The National Weather Service forecast about one inch of rain for the region in the middle of the week on Monday morning.
Because these are not exactly the remains of Florence, the storm would gain a new name if it strengthened. Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave 40% chance to the storm zone to become at least a tropical depression this week.
Like Isaac before her, Tropical Depression Eleven sank in the deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles. On Saturday, Kirk became the southernmost storm since Bret in June of last year, but she is also fighting in the storm environment of 2018 and is now a disorganized tropical depression. However, at its speed of rapid advance, it will reach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night, bringing at least gusting winds and rain. It could then also regain the status of tropical storm.
On Sunday morning, the subtropical storm Leslie formed in the same neighborhood as Debby, Ernesto and Joyce. In a season dominated by adverse conditions in the tropics, Leslie became this year sixth subtropical cyclone – which means that half of the storms cited were subtropical at one time. It is 300 km to the west of the Azores and drifts to 6 mph.
A six-hour, five-day weather forecast, starting Thursday morning, shows the complicated evolution of numbered cyclones and potential cyclones across the Atlantic. (NOAA / NHC)
Until now, the activity of the hurricane season in the Atlantic was 106% of the average for the date and is expected to be behind the average by the end of the month . Although there were 12 named storms, they were generally weak and short lived. Florence is the obvious exception: the storm so far accounts for 45% of the cyclone activity of the season.
Of course, there are 9.5 weeks left in the season and we can not give up. But it is interesting to note that Isaac, TD11 and Kirk all dissipated or weakened in the deep tropics in September (usually the ideal place for action) and that there has not had a hurricane in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico this season.
The next two names on the list of Atlantic hurricanes are Michael and Nadine.
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