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A strong and rare tornado forecast is forecast by the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon and tonight. What is even rarer is the placement of the strong tornado threat.
To top it off, we're in the middle of the fall and not the heart of the months of the summer tornado season.
The severe weather forecast, issued at 2 am this morning, breaks down extreme weather threats into tornadoes, gusts, and hail.
It's where it gets interesting.
The diagonal black lines signify an area where a strong tornado is possible. Strong tornadoes are defined as tornadoes EF2 to EF5. Menominee, Iron Mountain, Norway and Iron River are among the areas most affected by the tornado. The strong tornado zone has a fairly high probability of 10% tornado.
Escanaba, Gladstone and Rapid River are among the 5% chances of a tornado.
There is a classic weather pattern for a strong tornado. A strong depression creates the southeast wind needed for surface wind shear, a necessity for tornadoes. A warm front extending east of the center of the storm will bring abnormally wet air into the western US. A large amount of moisture in the air is another violent fuel.
The storms should develop in the afternoons and evenings.
As the evening progresses, the risk of a tornado decreases. The storms could then be damaging to two-thirds of US-based linear wind turbine producers. and the lower north of Michigan as far south as Traverse City.
Thunderstorms are expected to decrease during the night as they move southeast to lower Michigan. When storms reach the southern half of the lower Michigan, they should be marginal.
Watch for updates. The next updated weather forecast is expected by 9:00 am. Do not expect much change in this forecast, as much of the new data is not available at that time. The midday update can dramatically change the forecast, with most new data stored.
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