Study reveals dramatic increase in deaths from heat wave 2080

LONDON (Reuters) – The number of people who died from heatwaves is expected to rise sharply in some regions by 2080 if policymakers fail to take action to mitigate climate and health changes. , according to the results of a study published Tuesday. Deaths from heatwaves could increase dramatically in the tropics and subtropics, according to the study, closely followed by Australia, Europe, and the United States

published in the journal PLOS Medicine, the results of the study suggest more stringent mitigation policies. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions because fewer greenhouse gas emissions are associated with fewer deaths from heatwaves.

Antonio Gasparrini, expert of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, noted that several countries are currently being hit by deadly heat waves and said that he was "very likely that the frequency and severity of heat waves increase in a changing climate

". (But) the good news is that if we mitigate greenhouse gas emissions … then the expected impact will be much reduced. "

The researchers said that they hoped that their research, which uses mathematical modeling, would help decision-makers in planning strategies. The model used different scenarios characterized by levels of gas emissions at greenhouse effect, preparedness and adaptation strategies, as well as population density to estimate the number of deaths related to heat waves in 412 communities from 2031 to 2080.

The results showed that compared in the period 1971-2020 and in the extreme scenario, the Philippines would experience 12 times more deaths due to heatwaves from 2031 to 2080.

In the same scenario, Australia and the United States could do faced with five times more deaths in excess, with Britain potentially seeing four times as many deaths in excess of heat waves in the same period.

These improved predictions, which oi When the scenarios have been modeled with the policies implemented to fulfill the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. In the least extreme scenario, and compared to the period 1971-2020, the study predicted that Britain would experience only about twice the deaths caused by heat waves from 2031 to 2080. [19659009] Researchers note that their work has its limitations because it can only model relatively simple assumptions about how countries can and can not adapt climate policies.

The results should therefore be interpreted as potential impacts in hypothetical scenarios and not as projections of the future. in a statement

(Report by Kate Kelland, edited by William Maclean)