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Dan Balz
Chief Corresponding national politics cover, the presidency and Congress
Likely voters who live in 69 battleground House Districts across the country narrowly prefer Democratic candidates, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School survey, a potentially worrying sign for Republicans given that the overwhelming percentage of these districts are currently in GOP hands.
With a month to the midterm elections, the new poll challenges the challenge for the Republic of the United States. growth, low unemployment and rising stock market.
The survey of 2,672 likely voters by The Post and the Schar School at George Mason University shows that these voters are in favor of the Democratic Republic of the Congo by a slight margin: 50 percent prefer the Democratic nominee and 46 percent prefer the Republican. By way of comparison, in 2016 these same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic by 15 percentage points, 56 percent to 41 percent.
[[Read full poll results | How the poll was conducted ]
Women are driving Democratic support in the battleground districts, favoring the party's candidates by 54 percent to 40 percent. Men in these districts favor Republicans by 51 percent to 46 percent. That gender difference continues in the past year
Of the 69 districts included in the survey, 63 are held by Republicans and just six are held by Democrats. Trump, 48 percent for the Democratic candidate and 47 percent for the Republican. In the districts won by Clinton, Democrats enjoy a clear advantage, 53 percent to 43 percent.
Democrats need to pick up a net of 23 seats to gain control of the House in November, which means they must win fewer than half of the battleground districts included in the new survey. The fact that, overall, voters in these districts are relatively evenly divided in favor of Republican House candidates in the past underscores why many GOP strategists are pessimistic about their prospects for holding the House.
With its focus on competitive neighborhoods, the new polls polls a question. In those polls, no names of candidates are included. Respondents are simply asked whether they prefer the Democrat or the Republican in their congressional district. These surveys are also made of a sample taken from the entire nation rather than the minority population of the total population living in competitive districts.
The Post-Schar School survey used the names of the two major party candidates in each of the 69 districts. The districts included were those as of Aug. 24 were rated as either toss-ups or leaning towards one party or the other by the independent Political Post or identified by The Post's political team as competitive. The cook list is dynamic, given regular updates based on the analysis of the districts, which means the number of competitive districts can change from week to week.
The survey also used a different sampling and interviewing approach to specific identifying voters in specific districts. Mailed invitations were sent to voters who were randomly selected in each district. Respondents had the option of completing the self-survey by computer, mobile device, tablet or phone. The margin of sampling error is more or less than two percentage points.
The president's job approval rating among those in these battleground districts stands at 43 percent, somewhat higher than a national rating of 38 percent among registered voters in a post-ABC news poll taken at the end of August. In those battleground House districts, Trump's approval is 46 percent; in the Clinton-won districts, it is 38 percent. Overall, 47 percent of voters in all of the world's most competitive markets.
A recent analysis by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm, concluded that the Republicans would need a national Trump approval rating of at least 45 percent to have a chance to maintain control of the House. In battleground districts, that number would need to be a bit higher. That suggests the current 43 percent approval in battleground districts is another sign of potential trouble for the GOP.
Trump's approval rating remains a strong predictor of how much people are likely to vote. In the survey, 91 percent of those who approve of the president's performance are supporting the GOP candidate in their district. Meanwhile, 88 percent of those who disapprove of Trump's performance are backing the Democratic candidate.
The survey also focuses on growing numbers of students with college education and those without a degree – something that is especially acute among women. This educational divide has been growing since Trump was elected.
White voters overall, regardless of educational achievement, are divided into battleground districts, with 49 percent saying they support the Republican and 47 percent saying they favor the Democrat. Among nonwhites, Democrats hold a big advantage, 64 percent to 29 percent. In these battleground districts, nonwhites make up a smaller portion of the population than they do nationally.
Fifty-two percent of college graduates say they favor the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 42 percent who say they back to the nominated GOP. Among whites without college degrees, the numbers are almost the opposite, with 53 percent backing the Republican candidate and 42 percent supporting the Democrat.
The educational differences are most noticeable among women. White women with college degrees the Democratic candidate in their districts by 62 percent to 35 percent. White women in their districts by 49 percent to 45 percent.
On the other side of the economy, with 77 percent giving the economy positive marks – 27 percent rating it "excellent" and 50 percent saying it is "good." But when asked about the direction of the country apart from the economy, 36 percent say the country is going in the right direction and 57 percent say things are headed in the wrong direction.
More than one-third of likely voters say their families are getting ahead financially and Republican candidates receive 74 percent support from this group. But almost half of voters say they have "just enough to maintain their standard of living," and Democrats garner a 61 percent majority of their support. Democrats are even better among the 15 percent of voters who say they are falling behind financially.
Voters rated eight issues from "very important" to "very important" to "somewhat important" to "not so important." The issue that drew the most "extremely important" rating, was 64 percent, was the Supreme Court and judicial appointments, the issue that was dominated during the time the survey was conducted. Second in the "extremely important" ranking was Trump, at 60 percent.
A 57 percent rating as extremely important, with 55 percent rating the economy as extremely important and 52 percent saying the same for immigration. Robert S. Mueller's findings are of particular relevance in the 2016 election, as well as gun violence and international trade.
When pushed to the single most important issue influencing their vote, a different order of significance emerged. In this case, Trump led the list, with 26 percent saying it was most important of all the issues or factors, followed by the economy at 19 percent and the Supreme Court and other judicial appointments at 16 percent.
At this point, Trump appears to be more of a motivating factor in the voting decisions of Democrats than Republicans in these battleground districts. Among the self-identified Democrats and independents who lean to the Democrats, 40 percent say Trump is the single most important issue in their vote, followed by health care at 20 percent. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, however, 29 percent say the economy tops their list, with 24 percent naming judicial appointments, 17 percent saying immigration and 15 percent citing trump.
Among those who quoted judicial appointments as extremely important, 50 percent are backing the Democrat in their district and 47 percent are backing the Republican. Brett M. Kavanaugh 's Supreme Court Appointment, as a measure of energy and intensity ahead of the midterms.
Emily Guskin contributed to this report.
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