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Sweden will go to the polls Sunday in an election where the Swedish nationalist democrats should cope well, while massive Islamic migrations in the country are raising long-standing concerns – the last country to turn to the right migration crisis of 2015.
Sunday's vote will be the first since the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, which has sent hundreds of thousands of migrants from Europe to the Middle East and Africa. Sweden has hosted 163,000 in 2015, one of the highest on the continent.
But while Swedes are traditionally known for their openness and tolerance of migrants, and the country has been considered immune to the populist wave sweeping across Europe, the migrant crisis has started this consensus.
"Our question about mass migration and how to fight crime – everyone is talking about it now. This is of course in our favor, "Swedish Democrat leader Jimmie Akesson told The Wall Street Journal in an interview.
When, in 2017, President Trump spoke of the crime and terrorism problems facing Sweden, many media have mocked him. However, concerns about the crime of migration and terrorism are apparently shared by a significant number of Swedes.
According to the Journal, in 2017, the police reported more than 320 shootings, dozens of bombings and 7,226 rapes – an increase of 10% over 2016. Norway registered only one homicide in 2017, compared to 43 in Sweden.
Polls show that Swedish Democrats, who have focused on restricting immigration, are comfortably in the lead before Sunday's election, with 20 to 23 percent of the vote, or eight parties in contention.
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Although it is far from an absolute majority, it might be enough to stop the center-left Social Democrats, or center-right moderates, from being able to form their own coalitions without the Swedish democrats. This could lead to a political stalemate in the country after Sunday.
What might also be conceivable is a situation like Austria, where the center-right People's Party formed a coalition with the Freedom Party in December. Both sides had taken severe positions on the issue of migration.
If the Swedish Democrats found a way to enter the government, it would be the last – albeit the most surprising country – to be hit by the populist wave that is sweeping across Europe.
It was thought that this wave collapsed in 2017, when French President Emmanuel Macron defeated nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen, while Christian Democrats of German Chancellor Angela Merkel led German federal elections later in the year. year.
However, Macron's popularity has plummeted since taking office, while Merkel has been struggling for months to forge a working coalition and has struggled to retain power ever since.
In Italy, a populist coalition of the Five-Star Movement and the Nationalist League came to power after the March elections, adopting a strictly strict stance on migration from Africa and refusing to accept refugees' lifeboats on his ribs. The combined popularity of both parties in the polls is currently around 60%.
In Hungary, the Fidesz party of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, based on a strict anti-migration platform, has reinforced its majority in the last country elections since the migration crisis.