T-X Trainer's Contract Expands Strategy

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And the winner of the T-X trainer contract is … Boeing, the US Air Force announced Thursday. This contract represents at least $ 15 billion – and probably much more in the long run – for them, their partner Saab and their suppliers. It also means that a brand new aircraft will come into production, which has not happened in the military market for some time. Congratulations to Boeing for taking a big risk on a sleek design.

Given Boeing's recent winning streak (the MQ-25 drone, the MH-139 helicopter), it is clear that the company is very aggressive and is ready to win. This is particularly true since their selling price required to overcome the risk adjustment of the Air Force, given that Boeing offered the only completely new design (and that the problems of the KC-46 tanker still weighed on customer perception). There is a high risk for Boeing of the initial losses here, as with the KC-46. But these victories go a long way toward strengthening the Boeing military camp, which has been under a lot of pressure for decades due to the losses of the joint fighter and the long-range bomber.

Second, our condolences to Lockheed Martin / Korea Aerospace and Leonardo. Losing the contest does not mean the death of their respective competitors, the T-50 and the M-346. The T-50 has a very strong domestic market and a nice set of export wins. The M-346 has also won several competitions of key foreign trainers including Israel, Singapore and Poland.

But considering the limited size of the market, win T-X account. As I wrote earlier this week, the basic T-X registration program (350 aircraft) is the total size of the state of the art jet jet market over the last 20 years. This stamp of approval from the US Air Force is important. It is also likely that Boeing will market its aircraft as a light fighter, a new product of interest on the market and a way to expand beyond the relatively small market of advanced trainers.

However, winning this approval from the Air Force does not guarantee market dominance. Even when the former Air Force trainer, the T-38 (and his fighter cousin, the F-5), was on the market, competing European contractors sold hundreds of variants of Alpha Jets, Hawks and Jaguar.

The Air Force deserves extraordinary credit. In a time of resurgence of economic nationalism and trade barriers, the service has traveled the world to find the platform offering the best value for money. The choice of the MH-139 helicopter earlier this week clearly demonstrates its commitment to global sourcing.

The last three competitors of the T-X were a Korean jet, a half Swedish jet and an Italian jet (with Russian DNA). Globalization is not suitable for all military markets, but building a trainer is not at the heart of national security or the health of the industrial base. Although all winners had to present a US production line, immigrant planes were welcome.

Finally, this could be the last plane of its kind. I have long doubted that remotely piloted vehicles would take over most of today's manned combat aircraft missions. But even I, I have to admit that this could be the last advanced trainer. After all, if the history of the T-38 provides guidance, the latest T-Xs could still be in service in 2090.

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And the winner of the T-X trainer contract is … Boeing, the US Air Force announced Thursday. This contract represents at least $ 15 billion – and probably much more in the long run – for them, their partner Saab and their suppliers. It also means that a brand new aircraft will come into production, which has not happened in the military market for some time. Congratulations to Boeing for taking a big risk on a sleek design.

Given Boeing's recent winning streak (the MQ-25 drone, the MH-139 helicopter), it is clear that the company is very aggressive and is ready to win. This is particularly true since their selling price required to overcome the risk adjustment of the Air Force, given that Boeing offered the only completely new design (and that the problems of the KC-46 tanker still weighed on customer perception). There is a high risk for Boeing of the initial losses here, as with the KC-46. But these victories go a long way toward strengthening the Boeing military camp, which has been under a lot of pressure for decades due to the losses of the joint fighter and the long-range bomber.

Second, our condolences to Lockheed Martin / Korea Aerospace and Leonardo. Losing the contest does not mean the death of their respective competitors, the T-50 and the M-346. The T-50 has a very strong domestic market and a nice set of export wins. The M-346 has also won several competitions of key foreign trainers including Israel, Singapore and Poland.

But considering the limited size of the market, win T-X account. As I wrote earlier this week, the basic T-X registration program (350 aircraft) is the total size of the state of the art jet jet market over the last 20 years. This stamp of approval from the US Air Force is important. It is also likely that Boeing will market its aircraft as a light fighter, a new product of interest on the market and a way to expand beyond the relatively small market of advanced trainers.

However, winning this approval from the Air Force does not guarantee market dominance. Even when the former Air Force trainer, the T-38 (and his fighter cousin, the F-5), was on the market, competing European contractors sold hundreds of variants of Alpha Jets, Hawks and Jaguar.

The Air Force deserves extraordinary credit. In a time of resurgence of economic nationalism and trade barriers, the service has traveled the world to find the platform offering the best value for money. The choice of the MH-139 helicopter earlier this week clearly demonstrates its commitment to global sourcing.

The last three competitors of the T-X were a Korean jet, a half Swedish jet and an Italian jet (with Russian DNA). Globalization is not suitable for all military markets, but building a trainer is not at the heart of national security or the health of the industrial base. Although all winners had to present a US production line, immigrant planes were welcome.

Finally, this could be the last plane of its kind. I have long doubted that remotely piloted vehicles would take over most of today's manned combat aircraft missions. But even I, I have to admit that this could be the last advanced trainer. After all, if the history of the T-38 provides guidance, the latest T-Xs could still be in service in 2090.