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It has been a long time since Texas entered an election day with so much uncertainty.
From the match to the blockbuster at the top of the ballot between US Senator Ted Cruz, R-Texas and US representative Beto O'Rourke, D-El Paso, to a crowd of potentially closer races further back in the polls, Predictions of what the results will look like at the closing of polls Tuesday night are everywhere.
The flood of advance votes has blurred all the historical precedents and what happens on polling day could reset – or reaffirm – the trajectory of Texas politics.
"The enthusiasm is absolutely real," said Lillie Schechter, Harris County Democratic President. "Our statewide survey and our turnout show that Democrats across the state are not happy with Republican leaders and are demanding changes."
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But Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican consultant with several clients registered on the ballot Tuesday, hinted that part of this increase early in the turnout was due to a Republican trend. Whatever the case may be, Republicans take nothing for granted.
"Everyone is on the same page in that it takes every race very seriously," he said. "Everyone is sprinting up to the finish line in a way that I have not seen since I work in the elections here.
"I think there is a mix of hope and dismay," he added. "The numbers we see coming back in the internal polls, the public polls and the county-to-county data are … that people are being pushed to vote, and we're seeing it on the Democratic side and the Republican side."
The US Senate race between Cruz and O & Rourke is at the center of Texas politics. Cruz led almost all the polls and has the structural advantage. But many political insiders are wondering whether O'Rourke, along with the $ 70 million donations he's attracted to as part of political rallies that have attracted crowds closer to rock concerts, has so broadened the Electorate that there is a way for a Democrat to win a race in the US Senate for the first time since 1988.
Geographically, the race is on track to test the influence of rapidly growing urban centers of the state. If Cruz survived, much of this success would probably be rooted in more rural communities.
The most guarded county of all will likely be Tarrant County, the last major urban republican bastion of the state. If Tarrant turns to O. Rourke, this could be a new day for politics in Texas.
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Aside from O 'Rourke's muscular challenge to the US Senate, much of the state-wide voting has been much quieter. Governor Greg Abbott, for example, has had a double-digit lead against Democrat Lupe Valdez, former Dallas County Sheriff, in some polls, and is devoting much of his campaigning infrastructure to helping Cruz and the United States. others in more difficult races. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton also led a reelection campaign largely under the radar against Democrat Justin Nelson, but a flurry of new announcements and important last-minute donations to the Paxton campaign suggest that the Republicans do not take it. race for granted in such an unstable environment.
At the bottom of the polls, there are three congressional races that are most watched, in Dallas, Houston and West Texas. In all three districts, more voters supported Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016, while re-electing GOP party holders to the US House. The US representative, Pete Sessions, is engaged in a high-profile battle against lawyer Colin Allred in the 32nd district of North Dallas. In Houston, US Republican Representative John Culberson is in deadlock against Democratic Lawyer Lizzie Pannill Fletcher in the 7th Congressional District.
US Republican Will Hurd is on his way to a third term, despite the efforts of retired Air Force Intelligence Officer Gina Ortiz Jones to overthrow him. Yet at the end of last month, the National Republican Congress Committee was back on television in the district after canceling reservations a few weeks ago, a sign that national Republicans remained worried about the race.
Elsewhere, Democrats should increase the score in the two largest counties of the state – Harris and Dallas – which could have serious consequences.
"We have always said that developing our electorate to develop our power was a long-term project and every cycle we add Democrats to the electorate was a successful election and a step in the right direction," Schecter said.
Sleeper races could also emerge on the front of Congress, given the solid fundraising of Democratic challengers across the state.
Beyond clashes between members of Congress, three races in GOP-dominated Senate seats have also sparked interest, with some Republicans fearing that Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick will lose his stronghold over the Upper House. if these seats were overthrown. In District 16 of the Senate, MP Don Huffines and Democrat Nathan Johnson are fighting over who will represent a district in Dallas County represented by a Republican for more than three decades.
Johnson's advantage is an obvious fanfare for O'Rourke and the fact that District 16 of the Senate straddles the 32nd Congressional District, where the latest polls show that the sessions follow Allred to one digit. The district also supported Clinton on Trump by almost 5 percentage points in 2016.
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A similar situation is occurring in the electoral districts in Tarrant County and in the Houston area, where Republicans sense. Konni Burton and Joan Huffman, respectively, vie for re-election. Burton, a Colleyville Republican facing a challenge from Democrat Beverly Powell, will face a historically competitive reelection bid. In 2014, she moved from Democrat Wendy Davis to Headquarters with just over 52% of the vote. Two years later, Trump beat Clinton in the district by just half a percentage point. In Huffman District, Trump won by less than one percentage point.
Further down, several state house seats are at stake. Dallas County, in particular, has been a central battlefield for several Democrats who have waged aggressive campaigns against the Republicans in place. If a "blue wave" overwhelms the region, Democrats are hoping for more than a handful of seats, including the seats currently occupied by state officials. Matt Rinaldi of Irving, Rodney Anderson of Grand Prairie, Angie Chen Button of Richardson and Linda Koop and Morgan Meyer, both of Dallas.
Two state chamber seats open in the Dallas area could also be replaced by Democrats. The House District 114 race in Dallas County will determine who will replace Republican state representative Jason Villalba of Dallas, a relatively moderate legislator after three terms who lost his GOP primary earlier this year. Politicians also monitor the neighboring district of House 113, where Democrat Rhetta Bowers and Republican Jonathan Boos vie for the seat vacated by Representative Cindy Burkett.
Also in Williamson County, several legislative seats are at stake. Democrat James Talarico and Republican Cynthia Flores are trying to replace Republican Larry Gonzales, R-Round Rock. In a neighboring district, state representative, Tony Dale, hopes to retain his seat against Democrat John Bucy.
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