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Among voters who say they are certain to vote, the race is tied: 45% for Bredesen and 45% for Blackburn.
"The bottom line is that the race in the Tennessee Senate will be determined by the candidate who will be most able to transform his base, as well as by all the national waves that will occur – blue or otherwise," said John Geer, professor of political science at the Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Chair.
After Republican Senator Bob Corker announced his retirement, party officials in Washington estimated that the seat would almost certainly remain red, as President Donald Trump won Tennessee by 26 percentage points. But Bredesen's entry into the race gave hope to the Democrats, as the former governor has enjoyed independent support since his tenure.
This is clear from the latest poll, according to which Bredesen is much more popular with Republicans than Blackburn among Democrats. Thirteen percent of Republicans told pollsters that they intended to vote for Bredesen, while 5 percent of Democrats said they would support Blackburn.
"The results of our poll show that this race is still very difficult," said Josh Clinton, co-director of the Vanderbilt poll. "Eight percent of voters are still undecided and, depending on who these voters choose and who vote, this race could easily be a two-way event."
Bredesen has been introduced as a moderate Democrat to the Senate race in 2018, pledging to break with his party if necessary and to support the President when he felt it was better. for the state. A recent example: Bredesen announced that while he had been in the Senate, he would have voted in favor of Justice Brett Kavanaugh of the Supreme Court, whose controversial but successful candidacy had been tainted with allegations of Sexual aggression and emotional fighting on the left.
Blackburn, a conservative with close ties to Republicans in Washington, relied on the state's natural political inclinations and wanted to link Bredesen to leaders in Washington, such as Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer. Bredesen, however, said he would not support Schumer as the Democratic leader in the Senate when he won the victory.
While Vanderbilt's polls found the race tied, other recent polls revealed that the Republican had a slight lead.
The Vanderbilt survey was conducted by telephone from October 8 to 13, with a random sample of 800 registered voters in Tennessee. The results for the full sample have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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