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Years ago, this unsustainable argument came largely from the most emotional areas of the pro-Tesla camp. Those who made it were rightly disgusted by the traditional auto industry for its many sins of the past, hated the idea that they had to buy a car and considered Tesla as a kind of savior society.
While Tesla has grown and experienced all the pain that automakers have to face all the time, this point of view has been removed. People still love Teslas. But since many of them own a vehicle, they understand that Tesla makes something with four wheels and windows.
Impassable expectations have migrated from early adoption spaces to the financial area, where it has always been important to promote mega-bullish investment stories regarding Tesla.
Gene Munster of Loup Ventures, for example, said last year that Tesla's potential market in the United States could account for 11 million vehicles a year. since resolved).
As I noted at the time, the Munster number is nonsense at the limit. If Tesla sold 11 million vehicles a year in the United States, it would control 65% in the market by 2018, which is expected to reach more than 17 million. And keep in mind that at its peak in the 1950s – when it had only two major domestic competitors at Ford and Chrysler – General Motors had captured just over 50% of the market; he is now leading all sales in the United States with less than 20%.
Equally obvious, Ark Invest, whose president, Cathie Wood, thinks that in 5 years, Tesla will turn car manufacturer into a mobility services provider, with a share price of up to $ 4,000. Tesla has nothing that even vaguely resembles a fledgling mobility company. Waymo, which has been testing autonomous vehicles for almost 10 years, has just started deploying one.
It is not detrimental to the credibility to propose this as an investment thesis, but to insult it. (Ark was among Tesla's investors who challenged Musk's unsuccessful attempts to privatize the company, and to the credit of Wood and his team, it seems to have delivered admirable returns to investors through its participation in "disruptive" technologies. .)
It got worse. Ark also thinks that 17 million electric vehicles will be sold each year by 2022. Forgetting for a moment that there is some sort of unrealized contradiction between Tesla that connects electric vehicles to a service rather than an electric vehicle. to a model of property, the calculation is challenged by reality.
As residents of planet Earth, we would be much better off if the EV were to grow rapidly over the next three years. Five to seven million annual sales would be great. If you reach 17 million, however, you must understand how the world's automakers will convert existing plants, which now assemble gasoline cars to build electric vehicles; or locate the global expansion of capacity that would support EVs at a level equal to the entire US annual passenger car market, in a booming state.
The fact of disagreeing with these ultra-bulls Tesla does not mean that you are anti-Tesla. It just means that you prefer Tesla to be part of a reality-based scenario – a scenario in which Tesla does not dominate, but participates in a robust market for electric vehicles.
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