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Cars
Published on November 14, 2018 |
by Zachary Shahan
November 14, 2018 by Zachary Shahan
It may be the longest process to create a monthly sales report in the United States, and it may be the most difficult. We had a clear idea of Tesla's Model 3 production and delivery progress up to the 3rd quarter, but because of the intense efforts to have the models 3 put on sale and placed in the hands of customers at the end of the quarter, it was difficult to estimate production in the following weeks – much of October.
The problem, which seemed already discouraging, was compounded by the fact that Elon Musk had noted on Nov. 1 that one should not forget that the company was producing cars for deliveries on the east coast of the United States and abroad during the first half of the quarter. Great for S and X models, but what does it mean for Model 3? Does Tesla already produce a significant number of models 3 for other markets? The assumption was that it would not start until the 1st quarter of 2019, but it is hard to know without a more accurate idea of consumer demand for the fillings that Tesla currently produces.
Based on the evidence of a small number of models 3 exported abroad and Tesla's introduction of the mid-range model 3, which has likely stimulated a decent number of new orders in the United States, we assume that model 3 will always be sold. only in the United States and Canada in the fourth quarter.
Overall, we expect a reduction in deliveries in October compared to November – for staff leave and replenishment of delivery lines – but we did not conclude that there had been massive reduction.
There is much more to note about our estimate, including a reading of the Bloomberg numbers and Teslike (and taking into account of how Teslike's survey population has changed compared to Tesla's customer base), but leave the meta discussion and jump into the numbers, which come almost entirely from the automakers themselves. (Note: Tesla's sales trends from January to October were published in a separate article entitled "Tesla Model 3 = 18% of mid-to-average luxury car sales in the first 10 months of 2018. ")
For starters, you can see that, according to this month's estimates, the Tesla Model 3 was the 7th best-selling car in the United States in October.
If we had been a little more aggressive with our estimate, the model 3 would have been No. 6. And if we were much more pessimistic, it could have been the 8th. It seems unlikely that this is greater than # 6 or less than # 8, but both are a possibility.
By simply looking at sales of luxury cars of small and medium size, the bar chart is very different because the model 3 absolutely crushes the competition.
The pie chart follows with a better visualization of the impressive 30% of Model 3 in Model 3.
To make it fairer and more useful, I grouped all the sales of small and medium-sized cars for each of the car manufacturers in this class. Model 3 was always clearly in the lead.
(Note: Jaguar and Alfa Romeo cars are not included here because these builders do not report model-by-model sales, but both are at the bottom of the chart.)
Looking at luxury car sales as a whole (excluding sales of sport utility vehicles / trucks), Tesla again took the lead. To clarify, this competition is between the model 3 + model S and All cars sold by each of the other luxury car brands in the United States.
Previously, BMW and Mercedes-Benz competed for first place in the category, but Tesla has now passed. Overall, according to our Tesla estimates, Tesla took 28% of the cake, BMW 23% and Mercedes-Benz 20% in October.
In terms of overall sales of luxury car brands (cars + SUVs and crossovers), with only three models on the market, Tesla is ranked # 4 in October. However, a slightly more aggressive estimate would have placed him on the podium.
We expect Tesla to show a similar result in November and another month of exceptional sales in December. In total, this could be a close race for the # 1 spot on this market in the 4th quarter. Will Tesla win gold, silver or bronze?
About the author
Zachary Shahan Zach tries to help the society to help herself (and other species). He spends most of his time here CleanTechnica as director and editor. He is also the president of Important media and the director / founder of Obsession EV and Solar love. Zach is recognized worldwide as an expert in electric vehicles, solar energy and energy storage. He has lectured on clean technologies at conferences in India, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States and Canada.
Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG and ABB. After years devoted to sun protection and electric vehicles, he simply has confidence in these companies and has the impression that they are good clean tech companies in which to invest. But it does not offer any professional investment advice and should not be held responsible for your loss of money, so do not rush.
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