Tesla's first accident report states that it is four times safer than the US average – Quartz

Tesla likes to say that it is essential to build the safest cars in the world. It is not certain that his first report on security still holds that promise.

The company released the report on its website Oct. 4, claiming that its vehicles are involved in four times fewer accidents than the US average. He recorded an accident or near miss (Tesla is described as a "type accident") by 1.92 million miles traveled during the third quarter of 2018. For those who drive with his assistance system In autopilot, Tesla said the number of incidents was one by 3.34 million miles.

Tesla claims that this data compares favorably with data from the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which states that there would be a car accident every 492,000 kilometers driven in the United States. A review of data published by the NHTSA (pdf) 2016 (the most recent data available) shows a similar figure: one accident every 436,000 miles, which includes "police-reported accidents" that have resulted in injuries, death and / or property damage.

However, it is difficult to say whether these two numbers in his latest safety report make Tesla vehicles as safe as they appear. Although it is commendable, Tesla now publishes figures (most of the other accident data concerning car manufacturers are reported by third parties). His latest blog article focuses on the details and context and is characterized by the lack of statistics on fatal accidents.

Tesla has already presented its aggressive, often exaggerated claims of mortality. Since 2016, at least two Tesla pilots have been killed, one in Florida and the other in California, while their autopilot systems were enabled (paywall). A Tesla blog post published in March indicated that Tesla had only registered one fatality per 320 million miles driven in Tesla vehicles equipped with autopilot equipment. "You are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal crash if you drive a Tesla equipped with autopilot equipment," he said. "The autonomy of our vehicle reduces the probability of death by 30%," said CEO Elon Musk, in an appeal for the company's results, released on May 2, according to Sentieo. "The statistics are unequivocal that autopilot improves safety."

According to Steven Shladover, a research engineer at the University of California at Berkeley, these two statements are misleading. Tesla's statements were "rather scandalous" because they do not appear to be based on a statistically valid analysis, Shladover told Quartz. Tesla did not publish its data for independent analysis and was not immediately available for comment.

Given that Tesla drivers generally constitute a safer demographic group (older, richer people) on safer roads (highways instead of rural and suburban streets), comparison with NHTSA's average data is also misleading. . Tesla's statement that "autopilot-equipped" cars do not show that the autopilot reduces the number of deaths – other systems such as standard collision warning systems, Shladover explains, could explain differences. And the Tesla autopilot system recently came in second behind Cadillac's driver assistance technology in a study by Consumer Reports. Several security researchers said it was unclear whether Tesla vehicles had traveled enough kilometers with autopilot engaged to draw statistically significant findings from the data. Since fatal accidents can occur every few hundred million kilometers on average on American roads, it is not known if Tesla recorded enough kilometers with the autopilot engaged to support statistically significant losses in terms of deaths.

Tesla's cars already have some of the highest safety rates in NHTSA crash tests, but Tesla seems to have a hard time giving a clear story on safety statistics.