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Part of this change could be a statistical noise, but Quinnipiac also changed the surveyed population between surveys. They went from registered to likely voters.
All voters did not vote in an election. That is why it is important to question the subgroup of voters who will actually do it.
Most public pollsters are turning to likely voters at this time, as it becomes clearer who will vote mid-term as we get closer to the election. This is especially the case for pollsters who do not rely on a voting list like Quinnipiac to find out how often people have voted in the past.
The move to more Republican results among likely voters is not surprising, but must be disappointing for Democrats.
The change has also had an impact on other issues. The approval rate of President Donald Trump is up 3 points from last month in the Quinnipiac poll in Texas, despite a decline in its approval at the national level over the same period.
In 2016, the net approval rating of Democratic President Barack Obama (approval – rating of disapproval) had dropped by 6 points when the Marist College passed from voters to likely voters in Texas. This was the largest decline of all the states surveyed by the Marists during the last month of the campaign, and this probably hurt Democratic Hillary Clinton in the state.
The decline is largely due to the demographic composition of likely voters and registered voters in Texas. The current population survey conducted by the government revealed that voters who voted in 2016 were 3 points more white than all registered voters. This was tied for the biggest increase across the country for the percentage of white passing from registered to actual voters.
The Democrats had hoped that O 'Rourke's candidacy could result in greater participation, which could, in turn, help Democrats in major congressional races. It is not clear that this is happening again.
O 'Rourke, however, does not necessarily seem to lead to a higher turnout among Democrats.
Culberson enjoys a fairly favorable electorate for Republicans. Of all registered voters in the district, Culberson is currently trailing by 7 points. He even lost 2 points if the electorate looks like the one who voted in 2016. In other words, the electorate, at least in the 7th, should be worse for the Democrats than it is. in 2016.
Now, these are just two polls (Quinnipiac and Siena). There is still a month before the elections. Voter model and screens may, for whatever reason, not look for Betomania. There are many ways to create a screen or a likely voter model, and those chosen by these pollsters may not work this year.
But keep in mind that most polls address voters less inclined to the attraction that O 'Rourke could attract. It's just that for the moment these pollsters see no reason to believe that the electorate will be pro-democratic compared to two years ago.
In other words, there is reason to believe that the worst fears of the Texas Democrats (low turnout) could still be realized.
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