Texas's largest counties almost doubled turnout compared to 2014

Early Friday morning, in a Fiesta Mart in Austin, voters ducked the busy grocers and their caddies and rushed to queue to vote in a hidden creek of the store. In the middle of the morning, the voting line extended beyond the adjacent ice machine and into the butter and milk section several meters away.

Susan Gredler, an early-voting MP at Fiesta Mart, said she has met a "huge" number of people – about 900 a day – in her polling station all week since the start of the advance poll on Monday. She sometimes said that the queue was wrapped around the inside perimeter of the store and had passed the section of meat at the back.

"We were really scared to wait too long," said Gredler. "But no one has really been dissatisfied to the point of wanting to leave."

The animated scene at Fiesta Mart is a common. Voters massively massed during the first five days of advance voting. Soon, more Texans will have voted in early 2018 than during the entire 2014 advance voting period, according to data from the Secretary of State.

The five largest counties in the state almost doubled the turnout compared to the same point in 2014. At the polls closing on Thursday, 13.2 percent of registered voters in Harris County, the largest state county, had voted, compared to 6.4% at the same time in 2014. This number is close to the turnout of 16.4% observed at the end of the fourth day of advance voting in 2016 , a presidential year.

The situation is similar in Dallas County, which recorded a participation rate of 16.9% at the end of Thursday, compared to 5.9% at the same time in 2014, and in Tarrant County, which recorded a participation rate of 16% at the end of the month. Thursday, compared to 7.3% at the same time in 2014.

In Travis County, where the Austin Fiesta Mart polling station is located, Bruce Elfant, Tax Assessor and Registrar of Electors, reported on Facebook that at 4 pm. Friday, 22% of registered voters had voted. The number hovered around 7% at the same time in 2014.

"After just five days of early voting, the 2018 turnout will likely have exceeded the total turnout rate for the 2010 and 2014 elections," writes Elfant.

Some counties – such as El Paso, Williamson and Cameron – have already exceeded the overall participation rate during the two-week advance voting period in 2014. In total, at the close of polls Thursday, 16.3% of 12.3 million registered voters in the 30 counties with the most registered voters had voted.

"It's quite remarkable to double or triple the turnout," said Renée Cross, assistant director of the Hobby Center for Public Policy at the University of Houston.

While she claimed that the popular race in the Senate pitted US MP Beto O'Rourke, D-El Paso, against US Senator Ted Cruz, partly explained the increase in turnout, she said: "It must to be more than the race in the Senate.

"It's also a national policy," Cross said. "People on one side are pushed to the polls because they want to vote against the Trump party, and on the other hand, people are motivated to vote because of the [Supreme Court Justice Brett] Kavanaugh nomination hearings. "

Cross said it was "very long" since Texan voters in both political parties were as energetic as they are.

Many of the first voters who lined up on the black and white checkered floor of the Fiesta Mart, near the constant beeps of cash counters, said they were focusing on both local and national races .

"We are all voting in the Senate race," said Robby Earle, a 26-year-old law student who was told by the election officials that his burnt yellow hoodie was hiding his "Beto" t-shirt. "But we are also sending a message two years after 2016 to say that the current Congress is not receiving the seal of approval."

Norris Ferguson, 68, a retiree who proudly brandishes around her the sticker "I voted," said she was "fed up" with elected officials in Washington.

"We can not stand it anymore," said Ferguson. "We have to do something."

Ferguson, along with many early voters at Fiesta Mart, said she had heard of massive voter turnout earlier in the week and that she wanted to avoid those long lines of evidence. waiting as well as queues on November 6, polling day.

Mark Jones, a political scientist at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, said the long queues at the polls were "remarkable," but he said "almost the turnout should be higher than 2014 ".

Jones also said that it was too early to draw conclusions on if a strong participation in the advance vote will result in a strong overall participation. Early voting could be a "cannibalization of turnout on election day," he said.

"More and more people are voting early," said Jones, who estimates that between 60 and 75 percent of registered voters will vote before polling day. "People are used to it and the countryside has encouraged it."

He noted that a greater proportion of voters this year would be under 35 years old.

"Beto O'Rourke has spent quite a bit of money and time targeting millennials and post millennials with the belief that they are more than any other age group," Jones said.

Cross said grassroots groups across the state have also aggressively targeted young voters. In Travis County, 39% of registered voters are under 35 this year, according to county data. This is up from the 33% of registered voters in 2014. But high enrollment does not always translate into a high voter turnout, Cross said.

Kelsey Scarborough, 27, who works in the technology sector, said Friday at the Fiesta Mart polling station that she had never voted in an earlier election earlier. She said that her sister and her friend convinced her to vote.

"I'm not really involved in politics," said Scarborough. "But the people around you are helping you go to the polls."

Advance voting lasts until November 2nd.

Disclosure: The University of Houston and Rice University financially supported The Texas Tribune, a non-partisan, non-profit news organization funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in Tribune journalism. Find a complete list here.