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The Houston Astros were eliminated from the post-season conflict on Thursday after losing 4-1 to the Boston Red Sox against the AHL championships It was a disappointing end to an otherwise stellar season that saw the Astros win 103 games and win their second consecutive title in AL West. The Astros even had the best baseball differential during the season, but no one hung a banner for such achievements – not yet.
Now the Astros no longer have to plan a second championship show, but rather how they will navigate what might be a crucial winter.
When people think of Astros, they think of a team of talented young hitters like Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa. Each of these players is under the control of the team for at least two other seasons. Still, other important Astros are closer to their free dates. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole – Houston's top two starters – will arrive on the open market after next season, and the Astros are likely to lose up to five remarkable players this winter: wrestlers Brian McCann (club option) and Martin Maldonado, starters Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton and the utility Marwin Gonzalez. He's both a good beginner, the other half of the series rotation, and Gonzalez, whose versatility helps correct most training holes.
The Astros, to their credit, have the potential to replace most of these parts internally. Max Stassi is eternally straddling the line between the receiver of the future and the long-term safeguard; Josh James and Collin McHugh could slip into the rotation until the smallest of them gives way to Forrest Whitley's perspective; and although Tony Kemp could not do all that Gonzalez could do, his protean nature would stop the loss.
Nevertheless, it is more likely that the Astros will go out of the organization several times. They also have some flexibility in the payroll, which plays in their favor. Baseball-Reference predicts that Houston will have an expenditure margin of about $ 35 million for next season. If they refuse McCann's option, they will pick up Will Harris's and match this year's budget. Obviously, these things can change as the numbers of arbitrage come into play, and it is possible that the Astros reserve a budget space in reserve for the next trading deadline.
Let's say the Astros have about $ 30 million to spend. How would they spend it?
Yasmani Grandal would be perhaps the most attractive option as a free agent, whose playoffs could mask the fact that it is a two-way quality backstop. If the Astros decide to afford an upgrade to first base, they could review Jose Abreu's trade talks – or, better yet, see what the Arizona Diamondbacks want from Paul Goldschmidt. There are also countless newcomers to the market that the Astros could pursue in the hope of another return on investment comparable to Cole's: what about Jon Gray? Marcus Stroman? Etc.
Are some of these movements likely? No not necessarily. But the Astros remain well placed. They have a high quality base with room to add. The question is not whether Jeff Luhnow and his company will support him this winter, but to what extent and with whom. In the current state of things, the Astros still have a guaranteed season of Verlander and Cole. Expect that they will get the most out of it – and, by extension, put themselves in a good position to achieve a third consecutive ALCS.
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