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The representative of the United States, Beto O. Rourke, expresses it at a rally in Plano, Texas on September 15, 2018. O. Rourke is the Democratic challenger of the Senate seat currently occupied by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX).
Laura Buckman / AFP / Getty Images
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Laura Buckman / AFP / Getty Images
The representative of the United States, Beto O. Rourke, expresses it at a rally in Plano, Texas on September 15, 2018. O. Rourke is the Democratic challenger of the Senate seat currently occupied by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX).
Laura Buckman / AFP / Getty Images
The Texas Senate race was not supposed to be competitive this year. But thanks to an imaginative campaign, Beto O 'Rourke energized the Democrats, drawing huge crowds and raised tens of millions of dollars in what was initially considered a long-term attempt to defeat Republican Senator Ted Cruz.
While polls show a single-digit run, O'Rourke will need a transformed electorate to win in Texas, where no Democrats have imposed themselves in a race across the state. for almost a quarter of a century. Specifically, O 'Rourke must get more and more Latinos to present polls in a state where a state where Latinos have much less political influence than their demographic weight would suggest.
But as the two candidates prepare to meet for their first debate Friday night, voter registration data suggests that O 'Rourke's campaign and the Texas Democrats may not attract enough new voters to offset the structural advantages of Republicans.
Texas has a history of very low turnout. During the mid-term of 2014, only 28% of eligible voters in the state voted – the lowest rate in the country. In particular, racial minorities, who are more likely to vote for Democrats, are among the least likely to vote.
"For a few decades, there has been a demographic history," said Manny Garcia, of the Democratic Party of Texas. "And unfortunately for many of these years, it seems that grassroots democrats – communities of color – have been taken for granted."
Garcia said the Texas Democrats have been working harder in recent days to meet the needs of Latinos – and immigrants in particular. He said that he thought that issues such as the separation of families had paved the way for Democrats.
However, the problems alone do not change the state's electoral math, despite a rapidly growing and diverse population.
According to voter registration data, there are no new Latino voters in Texas urban counties and in the highly Latino counties of the Rio Grande Valley.
Since 2016, the number of new voters in the four largest cities of the state, namely Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin, has increased by a percentage. In Bexar County, where San Antonio is located, voter registration has increased by less than 3% since 2016.
While there is expectation that Latinos will become the largest population group in Texas by 2020, this is the year when Latinos cost Republicans a Statewide election remains an open question.
Questions about O & # 39; Rourke's call to Latinos
Despite having grown up in the border town of El Paso, fluent in Spanish and having a Spanish nickname, O 'Rourke did not start the Senate race with much support among Latinos. During the Texas Democratic primary in March, he lost most of the heavily Latino counties located along the border between the United States and Mexico to political activist Sema Hernandez.
"There was a shock there," said Victoria DeFrancesco Soto, lecturer at the LBJ's Faculty of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, Austin. "So from the beginning, in March, we wondered if Beto O 'Rourke was going to be able to capture the Latino vote".
Soto thinks the O & # 39; Rourke campaign is gaining ground with a large number of radio commercials aired recently on Texas Latino radio stations. O & # 39; Rourke speaks Spanish health care, among others.
US Republican Senator Ted Cruz, left, poses with Gary Malcik following a campaign stop in Temple, Texas, last month.
Will Weissert / AP
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US Republican Senator Ted Cruz, left, poses with Gary Malcik following a campaign stop in Temple, Texas, last month.
Will Weissert / AP
Since elementary school, O 'Rourke has traveled around Texas and has broken fundraising records, now reporting more than $ 23 million for his offer. But Latino political groups claim that there is little evidence that his campaign spends much of that money or takes advantage of the energy generated to ensure that a large number of non-voters voters become voters, which is a difficult task for any Democratic candidate. Texas.
"The challenge with a candidate like Beto is that there is so little infrastructure and resources devoted to the electoral cycles of the year," said Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, the founder of Jolt, a group that mobilizes young Latinos. Texas.
The O & # 39; Rourke campaign did not respond to requests for comments for this story.
Another challenge: Republican voters still dominate elections in the state. Half a million Republicans voted the Democrats at the March primary. And while Texas Republicans in particular have taken a sharp turn to the right over the past decade, they are still able to tap into a relatively deep Latino support well.
According to a recent survey by Quinnipiac University, only 54% of Hispanic voters supported the project, while 45% supported Cruz, whose father is Cuban, although he does not speak Spanish.
Ripples vs. Waves
Historically, there are several reasons why Democrats and third parties have not made big investments to change the state's electorate.
First, the Latino population is very young and young people are much less likely to vote than older people. Second, voter registration campaigns are particularly laborious and costly in Texas because of the state's election laws.
Outside groups, said Ramirez, do not want to spend this type of money in the second most populous state in the country while he has been solidly Republican for almost a quarter of a century.
In November, UT lecturer Soto thinks O 'Rourke could get a little more Latinos to vote for him, but she is cautiously wondering if it will be enough for her to win the Senate race.
"The bosses are bosses," she said. "There is nothing I would like more than to be pleasantly surprised by an increase in voter turnout, but I think … it will be a wave rather than a wave."
Soto added that the fact that this race is closer than anyone else can only be a sign that the state's demographic situation is changing. It's going very slowly.
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