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The government's agreement on Brexit will leave the UK less than 100 billion euros by 2030 than if it had remained in the EU, according to a study by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) .
The study commissioned by the People's Vote, which wants a second referendum, said the GDP would be 3.9% lower.
"This is tantamount to losing the economic output of Wales or the city of London," he said.
Chancellor Philip Hammond said the agreement was better than staying in the EU.
Approved Sunday by the EU, the withdrawal agreement sets out the terms of the United Kingdom's exit from the UK, including its "divorce bill", an amount of £ 39 billion, the rights of citizens and the "backstop" of Northern Ireland – a way to keep the Irish border open, if trade negotiations stagnate.
A separate political declaration defines possible relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union after Brexit – describing how trade between the EU and the UK works.
"Less productive"
The NIESR research modeled different Brexit scenarios compared to a basic stay in the EU.
He noted that the government's desired outcome – starting in March 2019 and entering a transition period until December 2020 before moving to a free trade agreement – would result in a significant reduction in trade and investment. .
This is largely due to the fact that leaving the single market would create "greater barriers" to trade in services, making sales of services from the United Kingdom less attractive, he said.
"This discourages investment in the UK and ultimately means that UK workers are less productive than they would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU".
By 2030, at the end of the first decade outside the European Union, the study predicts that GDP per capita would fall by 3%, for an average cost per person of 1,090 £ at current prices.
He also estimates that total trade between the UK and the EU would fall by 46%.
The report also modeled Brexit's alternative results against retention in the EU.
This showed that staying in a customs union beyond the transition period, possibly by invoking the so-called Irish backstop, would still mean a 70 billion pound blow by 2030.
Another scenario, advocated by some Brexit supporters, of an "orderly departure without any agreement" from the EU would reduce GDP by 5.5% to £ 140 billion, he said. .
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Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said the UK would not be "noticeably worse or better"
Sir Vince Cable, leader of the Lib Dem, which supports a second referendum, said: "No one has voted for less control or to worsen the situation, but the government has managed to come up with something that gets both. .
"It's a million miles from what the Brexiters promised two years ago and it's going to create decades of uncertainty for businesses and investors."
Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt told the BBC on Sunday that the UK was getting "between 70% and 80%" of what he wanted, while the deal "mitigated" most negative economic impacts.
Asked that the UK would be better off than it was inside, he said the country would not be "noticeably worse or better, but that meant we were recovering our independence" .
Prime Minister Theresa May will now have to convince members of the British Parliament to support her deal, but some believe she will have trouble doing so.
If members refuse to agree, a number of things could happen, including leaving without any agreement, an attempt at renegotiation or a general election.
