The caravan of migrants is heading towards the border

GUATEMALA – Today, nearly 3,000 Hondurans cross the Guatemalan border. US President Donald Trump threatened Thursday to close the US-Mexico border if authorities failed – an almost unthinkable move that would disrupt hundreds of thousands of people. every day legal passages of cargo, vehicles and pedestrians.

Less than three weeks before the mid-term elections on November 6, Trump seized the caravan of migrants to make border security a political issue and boost its republican base.

"I must, in the strongest terms, ask Mexico to end this attack – and if it can not do it, I will call on the US military and CLOSE OUR SOUTH BORDER. ! "Trump said on Twitter, adding that he blamed the Democrats for what he had called" weak laws! "

The threat followed another earlier this week to cut aid to Central American countries if migrants were not arrested. Trump made a similar wish on another large migrant caravan in April, but did not follow through on her request and she was largely spoiled in Mexico.

On Thursday, the Mexican Foreign Ministry said the government was helping members of the caravan who had already crossed the Mexican territory. He explained the options to migrants and helped those who chose to apply for refugee status to navigate the lengthy process.

Mexico had also sent additional police to its southern border after the shelter of Casa del Migrante on the Guatemalan side reported that hundreds of Hondurans had already arrived there.

Apparently satisfied with this response, in the evening, Trump retweeted a BuzzFeed reporter's tweet of a video clip showing police deployment, adding his own comment: "Thank you Mexico, we are looking forward to working with you! "

Mexican federal police and immigration officials also arrested immigration activist Irineo Mujica, who had led a caravan of migrants across Mexico last spring.

His organization Pueblo Sin Fronteras, or People Without Borders, said via Twitter that he was arrested Thursday in Ciudad Hidalgo, on the border between Mexico and Guatemala, while he was participating in a peaceful march.

Mexican immigration officials said Mujica, who has dual American and Mexican citizenship, was accused of property damage and resistance to arrest. According to a statement by officials, Mujica allegedly attacked immigration agents, as well as local and federal police, after asking him for his identity while he was gathering foreigners for a demonstration.

Mexican officials said that Hondurans would not be allowed to enter as a group and would have to either present a passport and a visa – which few people possess – either apply for refugee status individually, which can mean waiting 90 days before obtaining approval. . They also said that undocumented migrants would be deported.

Marcelo Ebrard, who will become Foreign Secretary when elected President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes office on 1 December, said Trump's tweets should be understood in the context of the upcoming mid-term elections in the United States. United.

"The electoral process is very close, so it makes a political calculation," Ebrard said in an interview with Radio Centro.

Trump's position, he said, was "what he always presented," adding that he saw "nothing surprising" in it.

The current Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Luis Videgaray, was also optimistic and saw things from the perspective of American policies.

"Nobody likes them (Trump's comments). There is no reason to give them more transcendence or importance, "Videgaray told the United Nations, where he sought help from the global body for processing migrants' asylum claims. "What is important for us is migrants, respect for human rights, their proper protection, especially the most vulnerable."

Nevertheless, the idea that Mexico could close its porous southern border – or that the United States would stifle the lucrative trade and traffic between the two countries – put a strain on the imagination.

"The United States and Mexico would have huge economic spinoffs, but limited effects on illegal immigration," said Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute.

"The president can certainly slow down legal border crossings, where about one million people cross each day. It would really hurt the legal transit between the two countries and the manufacturing and trade, which would affect American workers, "said Selee. "But that would have much less impact on the illegal border crossings between the points of entry."

Stephanie Leutert, director of the Mexico Security Initiative at the University of Texas at Austin, said she interpreted the tweet as meaning that Trump could send troops not to the points of entry, but to from other places where illegal crossings take place.

"If that's the case, I do not think Mexico should be too worried because in a sense … it's the same sort of thing that US administrations are doing for a long time," Leutert said.

Like Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico is a country composed of many migrants, which raises the question of whether there is a political will to confront.

Lopez Obrador wants to avoid repression against migrants and avoid angering the United States. He said this week that Mexico would offer jobs to Central Americans. "Anyone who wants to work in our country … will have a work visa," he said.

Juan Escobar, 24, said he had heard about Trump's comments, but that it would not deter migrants from continuing their journey.

"Only God above can stop us," said Escobar.

27-year-old Carlos Lopez is worried about Trump's threats but "we have to keep fighting".

Trump also warned that he was giving priority to border security even before the recently concluded trade agreement to replace NAFTA, the US-Mexico-Canada agreement or the US-Mexico-Canada agreement. ; USMCA.

"The attack of our country on our southern border, including the criminal elements and drugs coming in, is much more important to me, as president, than Trade or the USMCA. Hopefully Mexico will stop this attack on their northern border, "Trump told Twitter.

Analysts did not perceive the pact as an imminent danger, although trade lawyer Daniel Ujczo of Dickinson Wright PLLC said that there was "an important concern". Trump could hold the deal hostage on future issues.

"Leaders around the world are skeptical that any deal with this US administration is actually final," Ujczo said.

Caravans for migrants to the United States have been around for years. It is estimated that many of their trips provide protection against assault, burglary and even falsification by the police. They are also a cheaper alternative to the $ 7,000 to $ 10,000 that traffickers ask to cross the border, Leutert added.

Yet it is not until this year that caravans have received much attention.

"There have been these caravans over the years, but they become important because the president tweeted about them," Selee said.

He predicted that, like the April caravan, Mexico will respond with measures such as granting asylum to certain eligible migrants, while expelling others who do not, perhaps caravan but significantly reducing its size before reaching the US border.

But Trump's direct public pressure puts Mexico, already a worried ally of the past two years, in uncomfortable light.

"Ironically, the way President Trump reacts to these caravans makes it more difficult for the Mexican government to cooperate with the United States on immigration control," said Selee. "Both the current Mexican government and the new Mexican government are willing to cooperate with the United States on some aspects of immigration control. But it becomes much more difficult when President Trump makes it a political issue in which he approaches Mexico. "

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Orsi and Stevenson have been reported in Mexico City. Paul Wiseman, Associate Editor, Washington Press, contributed to this report.

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