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Pro-choice and anti-abortion protesters demonstrate in the Supreme Court after President Donald Trump's appointment of Brett Kavanaugh on 9 July.(Photo: Tasos Katopodis, Getty Images)
WASHINGTON – Opponents of abortion, who have been waiting for decades for a conservative and reliable Supreme Court, are knocking on the bronze doors of the building. But after a story Supporter fighting confirmation, the judges can not answer.
Cases challenging timelines, methods, funding, and abortion providers go inexorably to the high court, while Chief Justice John Roberts and his colleagues seek to make themselves known.
Before the battle for confirmation of new Deputy Judge Brett Kavanaugh was assailed by a decades-old allegation of sexual assault, his position on abortion was of paramount importance. Kavanaugh, 53, described a "precedent precedent" as the decisions of the Supreme Court legalizing and asserting the right to abortion in 1973 and 1992.
When the charge of aggression threatened to give him a confirmation at 50-48, he broke into a partisan tirade against Democratic senators and "leftist opposition groups". Because of this appearance of partisanship, Roberts and his colleagues hope to avoid the intense problems that could divide the court 5 to 4 ideologically.
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"We are not sitting on either side of an alley," Roberts told the University of Minnesota last week, citing Kavanaugh's conciliation speech. during his swearing-in ceremony at the White House. "We do not caucus in separate rooms, we do not serve a party or an interest, we serve a nation."
The combination of the challenges of ready-made abortion and the likely reluctance of judges to hear them led both parties to the debate to wonder what would happen next.
Louisiana and Kansas have asked the court to deny Medicaid funding to Planned Parenthood, jeopardizing preventive care and contraceptive services for low-income clients. Judges could decide as early as this week whether to hear these cases.
Indiana has asked the judges to overturn a lower court ruling barring the state from banning the abortions sought because of their gender, race or disability. The state also wants to require that the remains of fetuses be buried or incinerated. Vice President Mike Pence signed the law when he was governor.
Other cases pending before federal appeal courts seek to impose on clinics and abortion providers requirements similar to those that the High Court struck down in a Texas case two years ago when Deputy Judge Anthony Kennedy held a deciding vote. The arrival of Kavanaugh could foreshadow a reversal of the situation.
And in the lower courts, state laws more restrictive prohibiting abortion after a number of weeks, as well as others banning the most common method of abortion in the second quarter.
Abortion calculation
The activities of federal courts and state courts began before Kennedy's retirement, and Kavanaugh's confirmation gave the Supreme Court five strong, conservative judges. The question is whether this transition will translate into action or caution.
"That's the math that we're all trying to do," said Steven Aden, general counsel at Americans United for Life, who opposes abortion rights in the country's courts. Kavanaugh's presence, he said, "makes the abortion industry cautious".
Neal Devins, a professor at the William & Mary Law School who wrote on abortion law and policy, predicted that the court under the Roberts case will avoid abortion cases for the moment.
"I think he wants to do everything possible to make the court look like a court and not a political tribunal," said Devins.
Abortion rights groups would be happy if the chief justice pushed his colleagues in that direction. They won more than lost in the federal and federal courts, which overturned the efforts of the state legislatures to limit the time and place where women can have an abortion.
"It's hard to say that the floodgates will be more open than they have ever been," said Nancy Northup, president of the Center for Reproductive Rights, who is fighting the restrictions imposed by the government. State in 20 court cases.
Despite these victories, pro-choice groups remain concerned that a division between federal courts of appeal could develop, which would put pressure on the Supreme Court to settle these disputes – if that is not this term, in the near future.
"This then becomes a saturation point, where the Supreme Court has to take one of these cases," says Leslie McGorman, Deputy Policy Director at NARAL Pro-Choice America. "If they go slowly, what is it? Two years" Five years? In either case, it's detrimental. "
Stop near Roe
The last major case involving abortion proceedings was decided in 2007, when judges upheld a federal law banning abortions known as "partial birth". The key vote was won by the new associate judge Samuel Alito, whose predecessor, Sandra Day O. Connor, had voted in favor of repealing a similar law seven years earlier.
Kennedy's replacement by Kavanaugh could have the same effect on the 2016 court ruling overturning a Texas law requiring abortion clinics to meet the operating standards of the surgical centers and that doctors have privileges of Admission to neighboring hospitals. Similar laws in Louisiana, Missouri and Arkansas are being appealed to courts of appeal.
These efforts to restrict abortion are not going to reverse the case of Roe v. Wade, the landmark decision that legalized abortion all over the country in 1973. Many experts believe that this decision will not be overturned with a narrow majority of 5 to 4 conservatives in court.
Kavanaugh may not have appeared in court without the enthusiastic support of moderate moderate Susan Collins, who sought assurances on her views on abortion. In a private meeting with her, Collins said, Kavanaugh called a long-standing precedent such as Roe's "not something to cut, shrink, throw or neglect."
On the other hand, President Donald Trump said during the 2016 campaign that he would choose "pro-life judges" and, if he named enough, topple Roe "would be done automatically" .
Kavanaugh and the first Supreme Court candidate, Chief Justice Neil Gorsuch, may suffice. In his first full term, Gorsuch has not hesitated to cancel the precedents in terms of union dues and online sales taxes.
For the moment, however, the court will probably only consider narrow changes to the right to abortion.
"The court will gradually blame," predicted Brianne Gorod, senior attorney of the Constitutional Constitutional Accountability Center. "We are in a totally new landscape."
More: Brett Kavanaugh's first day at the Supreme Court includes a warm welcome – and a few pinches
More: Right to Abortion: The Supreme Court is considering removing several less important precedents. Roe v. Could Wade be affected?
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