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The last two years have taught us that predicting any NBA affair below "Warriors winning the championship" is a race for a madman.
But the predictions are fun! So here we are – our last annual preview column: 37 random, crazy and not-so-crazy forecasts for the next 12 months.
The goal is to reach. There is no point in predicting Kyrie Irving's signatures in Boston, or that veterans of evil teams (Robin Lopez, DeMarre Carroll, Kenneth Faried, etc.) end up being deceived.
There are at least half a dozen candidates. LeBron James is the best player and sentimental favorite. The Lakers are likely to end up in the bottom half of the playoff race, but Russell Westbrook recalibrated the MVP's criteria with a No. 6 seed. (I did not vote for Westbrook, but I'm pretty happy he should have won for this reason.It should be possible to win the title of most valuable player of the playoffs.) Antetokounmpo would be one of the 10 youngest players par excellence in the history of the league.
But when the files are closed, some voters default to the team's file. If you're optimistic about the Bucks, that bodes well for Antetokounmpo. The Bucks are expected to finish higher in the East than the Lakers and Pelicans (Anthony Davis) in the university conference.
Here are our contenders, the teams likely to participate in the playoffs and simply the bad teams this season.
Which teams will be the most entertaining this season? Zach Lowe ranks the top 15 teams in the NBA to see.
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A repeat of James Harden seems strangely unlikely. Why is not he the big favorite? He finished second, ninth, second and first of the last four seasons. What's changed? But last year's victory looked like a collective shoulder-lift of voters: "Well, well, maybe you should have won the year before." Your team has won 65 games. We do not like to see you play, so please, take the trophy and agree … do not come back. "
Kawhi Leonard is the undisputed top player of a team that can win 60 games. It's new and exciting in Toronto! But some voters will feel uncomfortable choosing it after all that happened last season.
Westbrook's victory looks more and more like a unique confluence of statistics, stories and crazy shots. Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, the second and third best players in the league, cancel, which is unfair. Irving is not far enough above Gordon Hayward, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. This could be a year earlier for Joel Embiid.
I keep coming back to Antetokounmpo. The numbers will be there. He was one of the top 10 defensemen in the league last season. This leaves the team record, and …
Milwaukee finishes third in East in front of Philly
Mainly covered in the Levels column last week. The Milwaukee bench behind Ersan Ilyasova will decide this prediction. Mike Budenholzer makes the right call, starting with Malcolm Brogdon on Tony Snell: play as much as possible together with your top five players. There are not too many ball machines. Brogdon can switch between two and sometimes three positions.
But Snell has more theoretical meaning as a fifth option. He can play this role as a backup. the Bucks will always keep Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton on the ground. But Snell is often paralyzed by an annoying indecision. He must let him fly.
Milwaukee needs at least one member from Sterling Brown, Pat Connaughton and Donte DiVincenzo to become a reliable spinning guy. They get really dangerous if the Thon Maker, who changes the playoffs once the coaches dusted him off in Match 3, is actually in the regular season.
Bledsoe and Middleton are in contract of employment. If Milwaukee gets the best of both games, Antetokounmpo will have enough talent to win many games.
PS: Philly has the assets – especially in defense – to win the East. I do not see him this season.
Kevin Durant signs with the Knicks
I do not think Durant or the people closest to him know what he's going to do. Warriors do not do it. They will launch it on its comfort in the Bay Area; business relations there; and their new arena – the one for which Durant opened the ceremonial floor.
I spent the final of last season talking to everyone about Durant, trying to understand him. The Warriors said they found Durant unknowable – and feared he was leaving a good part of last season. Surviving Houston during the conference finale erased the atmosphere. During the return flight after the seventh game, Durant sits next to Bob Myers, general manager of Golden State, and said: "I have never felt more integrated into the team," I told Myers.
A two-year stay at Golden State would have seemed short considering the melodrama surrounding Durant's exit from Oklahoma City. Three approaches to LeBron-to-Miami territory. Win another ring and Durant might think that he has accomplished what he intended to do. He is 30, at the height of his powers, free to choose his destination.
He does not return to Oklahoma City. I would be stunned when he joined LeBron. He must know that the warriors will always be the Curry team. Clashes in social media will never stop as long as Durant is there. People who know Durant say that a part of himself must want to take up the challenge of being the undisputed alpha dog and the head of the ball-in-the-head – by setting up a line of statistics 32-10-8. Some of these same people are wondering if he is a little afraid of this challenge.
A normal human would feel both of these things. But whoever will revive the Knicks will become a legend. Kristaps Porzingis is a young co-star who could take on an increasingly heavy load while Durant gets older.
Durant does not have to do it now. He may sign another one – year contract, pursue a ring in the Chase Center and strike the free agency again. On the other hand, as he moves to an oppressed franchise, he may have to sign a longer-term agreement to demonstrate his commitment to other stars likely to join him. Does he agree with that?
Another plus: what if Golden State says it does not want to pay the freight to Klay Thompson (free agent this summer) and to Draymond Green (free agent in the summer of 2020), potentially for a huge appointed player extension after this season)? Thompson does not intend to take advantage of a discount, and the Warriors do not expect him to do so, according to League sources. Green is already occupying small wounds; The league is curious to know how his game will age.
If Durant feels newly essential, he may be more likely to stay. (In this way, not doing three rounds could help Golden State retain Durant – just as the loss of the 2016 finals helped him to sign it.)
By the way, Durant's noise highlights one of the biggest unanswered questions about Jimmy Butler's public art installation: Butler is it sure that the situation will be better over the next five? years of playing alongside Karl-Anthony Towns?
Maybe Towns and Andrew Wiggins are intolerable personalities. Cities must show that he cares about defense and forced labor. Wiggins must show that he cares about everything.
Maybe Butler does not want to live in Minnesota. He seems angry that the Wolves did not pay their wages to Wiggins last summer (perhaps attaching a pick for sweetener), offered him a maximum extension that would have allowed him to extend his term. There is an argument that Minnesota should have tried. Wiggins was disappointed; Butler is a two-way force. Butler is underpaid. He entered free agency one summer before the mega-peak cape. Bad luck.
He also re-signed in Chicago for four guaranteed seasons. He did not have to do that. LeBron and Chris Bosh did not do it and they were able to pick a new team a year earlier than some of their superstar peers.
Butler has the right to look for ways to remedy that. Wolves have the right to say that it's a bit ridiculous to ask them to dump Wiggins (and maybe more).
Meanwhile, Butler was in one way or another at once transparent and ridiculously hypocritical, talking about the problem with Rachel Nichols:
That's gobbledygook. That's code. If you want to talk about honesty, be honest and say, "It 's actually a question of money – this extension I wanted."
That's not to say that Minnesota is flawless. Tom Thibodeau, Scott Layden and Glen Taylor watched the culture of their team erode and do nothing, assuming it repairs itself. Taylor and the home office sent conflicting messages to Butler's suitors, sometimes a few minutes apart, sources told the league.
But the Warriors will not have four stars in their prime bounty forever. Chris Paul is 33 years old. Towns is lucky to be the most versatile big man in history. You're going to leave this guy to go to Miami and play with … who? Are you moving to Brooklyn, even though Irving has scuttled the dream of teaming up? Philly would be a different story, and Butler has eyes for them, say sources close to the subject. The Sixers showed almost no interest in negotiating for him, sources said. There is a theoretical roadmap for a team of Clippers with Leonard.
Something about Minnesota must be unbearable for Butler to give up a long-term partnership with Towns.
Kristaps Porzingis is playing in 20 games or less
I could even take the sub at 15.5. The Knicks will be bad, trap another high choice and bet on free agents – that is Durant – assuming Porzingis recovers at full strength.
Four teams win 60 games
This only happened once before – in 1997-98, when the expansion compromised the competitive equilibrium. The Lakers, Jazz, Bulls and Sonics are all 60 years old. There have been seven seasons with three winning teams. Two, 1995-1996 and 1996-1997, experienced the same expansion.
Kevin Pelton launches another season 4 out of 60 in the form of a 50-1 shot; the league is light on the blatant tankers. Other analysts consider it a little more likely.
Damn, let's have a little fun and say that Toronto, Boston, Houston and Golden State are all there. Toronto and Boston are great and play in the East. Completed. The disinterested Warriors of last season went down 41-10 with Curry – a pace of 66 wins. Houston has won 65, but this may be our best bet this time. If the Rockets fail, it's possible that a team of wild-cards – Philly or Utah – will go crazy.
Charlotte is determined to play in the playoffs. As long as they are in the race to the trading deadline, it would be shocking that they treat Walker. (They'd better be in place of # 6, 7 or 8 in February, their last 20 games are brutal.)
Walker may not have as much market value as Charlotte hopes. Some teams in need of a leader will prefer to try their luck in free.
Walker is really well. Some parts of the game that were difficult for him – the pull-ups – seem easy now. He is cool, controlled, fully aware of the power he exerts over each possession.
He is also 5 feet 11 inches and he will be 29 years old by the end of the season. It is not worth dropping his franchise, unless you are at a player's shot at the Golden State. (The Cavs, for example, would have reversed Walker's # 8 choice if LeBron was committed to signing the signatures again, League sources said.)
Replenishment teams could whitewash future assets (or limit space in July) for Walker. These teams should bend a bit. Twenty-nine is not old. The shoot is anti-aging. Walker takes care of himself. He is barely missing matches – six combined in the last three seasons – and has not yet reached the 20,000 minutes of his career. Walker will drop a little before the age of 33, but I'm not sure we should assume that a major decline will occur before that date.
It's a good culture guy. Other stars would be happy to play with him.
But the bet is that Charlotte keeps Walker all season, offers the most money and years and convinces him to come back.
Khris Middleton receives nearly $ 30 million a year
I had $ 25 million in the beginning, but it is not bold enough.
Middleton is the second ideal banana of a good team and the third largest banana. Every team that hits the biggest names will come to the call. The Bucks want to keep Middleton, and if he has a good year, they will have to pay. Keep an eye on Philadelphia and Indiana.
Nikola Jokic makes her first team of stars
The West formation consisting of 12 people will include six, seven or eight players from the "first zone". LeBron, Durant and Davis are three automatisms. The injury of DeMarcus Cousins removes a fourth. This leaves Jokic struggling between three and five places with Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Paul George, Towns, maybe Butler (depending on where he stands and the degree of flexibility the NBA allows him in terms of position ), Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela and a few others. .
Given how he finished last season, I like the chances of Jokic.
Denver declines his team option on Paul Millsap and re-signs it minus
Thirty million – the amount of Denver option on Millsap for 2019-20 – will be too much for him at the age of 34. If this were to happen, it would be difficult for Denver to sign Trey Lyles again (or to use the mid-level exception) and stay under the luxury tax.
But if the Nuggets are good – and they should be – both parties will have an interest in continuing their relationship. If Lyles really appears, Denver might consider Millsap as a consumable. It seems far-fetched.
Al Horford makes his version of the same thing
Horford has a $ 30 million player option for next season. It may be too difficult to refuse. But Horford is 32, when some players negotiate a short-term maximization for security. Horford wants this to materialize in Boston, and he surely knows that a mere drop in his annual salary would help alleviate the looming fiscal problems of the Celtics.
A group of guys could take advantage of player options in this way if their teams in place needed some leeway or tax relief: suggest taking less in 2019-20 in exchange for 39, a long-term contract. Goran Dragic and Jeff Teague come to mind. Should the Mavs need some leeway, would Harrison Barnes consider declining his $ 25 million option to sign a $ 100 million five-year deal?
Marc Gasol withdraws and leaves Memphis
It goes out the window if the decline of Gasol accelerates; in this case, he could not refuse a guarantee of $ 25.5 million. But Gasol is almost 34 years old. If he manages to get something like a $ 65 million deal over three years, he could lock it up before the downward slope escalates. He could do it in Memphis, of course. But Gasol lacks time to win big. If he does not see a way with the Grizz, he could look elsewhere.
Denver hosts a first-round playoff series
I have detailed my Nuggets optimism here. Most projection systems have their number 5 or 6 in the west, according to Butler's final phase. To achieve this goal, they will have to jump to one of Houston, Utah and Oklahoma City. With Andre Roberson, the Thunder are vulnerable. (Keep an eye on Terrance Ferguson, he has tools and a decent feeling.)
(And yes, Isaiah Thomas's lingering health problems make me a little nauseous.)
Anthony Davis wins the title of defensive player of the year
This is going to be a hit among Davis, Gobert, Embiid, Green (win him eligibility for supermax), Leonard, Horford, Antetokounmpo and a few others. Gobert enters as a favorite – the peloton of a man for a defense almost assured of being in the top three.
Davis reached a new level in defense in the middle of last season. The pelicans were downright stingy when he played alongside Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic on NBA.com. He has played 75 games in each of the past two seasons, dispelling his concerns about his sustainability. The basis of Davis' strongest bid to date is here.
They tried, say the sources. With Lee in the books, the Knicks can earn about $ 30 million depending on the status of their project, about $ 8 million less than Durant's maximum and $ 3 million less than the maximum for a player from seven to nine years of experience.
They would prefer not to sacrifice a second-round pick by losing Lee's $ 12.7 million salary for 2019-20. It's going to be more difficult than you think, and maybe more than expected. New York must find a playoff team that values Lee's contributions in the field more than the ceiling space that he would sacrifice to get it.
Example: Lee in Utah for Alec Burks, for a contract expiring at $ 11 million. The Jazz have amassed potential space for this summer, but what are their chances of attracting anyone better than Lee? They could stay above the ceiling to sign their own free agents anyway. But they are so deep in the wings, it may not be worth it.
Lee in New Orleans for Alexis Ajinca and Darius Miller worked until New Orleans gave Ajinca to the Clippers. Lee would not close the Pellies' hole to the little striker, but he's better than Miller (and Wesley Johnson).
The most radical move for New York: Tim Hardaway Jr. shopping. Good luck.
Sacramento makes do not receive a first round choice for renting your space
For the first time in recent memory, only one team started the season with a ceiling that could be rented as a dump: the Kings, bringing in about $ 11 million. They should have the power to pull the first round of someone who has tax problems.
But $ 11 million is not enough to swallow an albatross. The sources fear that the Kings will commit to several years, limiting the number of their tenants. They might even want a veteran for another first round pick. Also: should we trust kings to exploit a benefit?
The bet is here: they clean several second-round players and / or a veteran.
Boston receives two of three possible additional first-round picks
They will get supplements from Sacramento (protected by the top-1, via the Jayson Tatum / Markelle Fultz affair) and Memphis (protected by the top 8) – but not the sucker that the Clippers owe them. (This choice turns into a second-round player if the clips do not send him in 2019 or 2020, putting the Celtics in a strange position: he's rooting for a team that owes a choice to play in the playoffs. )
This scenario could give Boston something comparable to the second, ninth and 28th choices of the 2019 Sheesh project.
Portland and Washington implode
Implosions would come after the season; I have both teams in the playoffs, though Portland Place (see below) is subordinate to the Wolves Butler.
At one point, expensive teams of 45 to 50 wins that hit the same second-round cap tend to separate. The results do not justify salary expenditures. Relationships fray or deteriorate. People are bored.
Here, implosion does not necessarily mean dismantling. This means that at least one central character – player, coach, general manager – will not be there early next season.
The Wizards would have reached this point without their geographic location. The East: Delaying difficult decisions since the late 1990s! Will another defeat in the first round put Ernie Grunfeld in danger?
Rebooting the list is more difficult. John Wall's supermax starts next season with a salary of $ 38 million for the first year. Given his injuries, no smart team should trade for him. There are still some silly teams.
Washington will not want to move Bradley Beal just to make things happen. He is an All Star on a fair contract. That leaves Otto Porter Jr., a good player who could be a bit overpaid to have managed to hit the free goal in the middle of the cap peak. It would be easy to move. it can adapt to any composition, to any team.
If assistants flounder, smart teams will sniff around Beal. Is he unhappy? Would he ever have the courage to get muscle, even if he still has two years and more?
Washington is one of the most anxious teams in the league for years. It is the year when the anxiety ends.
Portland's internal dynamics is more stable thanks to the no-frills direction of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Terry Stotts. Neil Olshey, their general manager, has been fighting to maintain a competitive local kernel in a historic zero free market in free agents. They will be moved for a long time, both personally and professionally, after the tragic death of long-time owner Paul Allen on Monday. They remain a young team. If Durant, why do not they stay together and dream big?
They could! But the humiliation of the first round of last season shook Portland. It's hard to imagine that every main character stays true if this season ends in the first round – or earlier.
The most attractive mega-exchange of the board does not include Anthony Davis: Lillard to the Lakers for a package centered on Lonzo Ball. Lillard fits perfectly with LeBron and LeBron respects Lillard's game, according to sources familiar with the matter. The Lakers could absorb Lillard in free space this summer without sending big salaries equivalent – wages they did not register.
It looks like a litter now. Lillard loves Portland. The Lakers are optimistic about how their young players will bond with LeBron, and they should be. Unless an agreement for Davis falls on their knees during the season, I would wait (bonus prediction!) The Lakers retain their cards during the summer.
But this is just a fake trade centered on Portland – a final phase. This could be a pivotal season for the Blazers.
Terry Rozier wins the sixth man of the year (and stays in season)
The minutes are an obstacle, but Rozier looks like the best bidirectional reserve in the league. He flies with an insurance that quivers, convinced that he can force Brad Stevens to find him 25 minutes per game. This threshold should suffice. Why are we punishing reservists who do not score 30 minutes per game because their teams are too good? How did Andre Iguodala ever win this?
It's hard to see Lou Williams duplicating the magic of last season. Will Fred VanVleet emit the same story buzz from Cinderella? Will Barton starts now. Eric Gordon could too. Kyle Kuzma, Marcus Smart, Pascal Siakam, Austin Rivers, Kelly Olynyk, Wayne Ellington, JJ Redick, Dennis Schroder, Jonas Valanciunas and a few others are looming on the horizon.
Perhaps the biggest threat: Tyreke Evans as close multipositions in Indiana. But we go with Rozier and add a bonus prediction: Boston does not trade Rozier during the season. A home run offer could change that. But if the Celtics think they have fairness in the championship – and they do – they will not do any dealings that would hurt this season's lineup when they can fix everything later.
Another mini-bonus prediction: Negotiating Marcus Morris seems to be a fait accompli. The Celtics are an underpayment burden for the Morris, something they would like to do, given the endless bills they set. But Morris is an important cog – their only experienced power striker. I'd rather have Boston guard Morris and eat a small tax bill – or find another way to reduce it.
Malcolm Brogdon refuses Josh Richardson's extension
Brogdon is one of the most devious candidates in the league, being eligible for a first-year salary of up to 120% of the league average of about $ 10.5 million. The full boat: a $ 47.5 million four-year contract starting in 2019-20.
Large long-term contracts for actors generally play poorly. Brogdon is almost 26 years old; it may not have more potential.
But Brogdon's type of player is ideal in an evolving NBA: a 40% 3-point shooter who toggles between guard positions on both sides.
The Bucks should think seriously about the full proposal. I bet they're doing it. The positive aspect of Brogdon's age is that a four-year contract extends until its peak. the next contractual decision will be easier.
Brogdon is represented by the legendary agent David Falk. Check out Falk's record on the extensions, and there's no conclusion other than that he'd be happy to take Brogdon to restricted freedom.
He becomes eligible for the extension on December 8th. The Nets will then have an idea of the possibility of playing their future on D & # 39; Angelo Russell. If they are pessimistic about Russell, they might try to induce Dinwiddie to make a deal – about three years, $ 21 million – that cannibalize not a lot of ceiling. He will say no.
Kawhi Leonard (maybe) signs with (maybe) Clippers
I do not have any insider information – I'm not on Camp Leonard's text list – but you can not write a column of prognoses without mentioning it. The precedents of Paul George and Irving bring optimism to Toronto. The Raptors are first class. Toronto is an incredible city. The team has a real chance to qualify for the final. If the young core steps one step further, Leonard could consider Toronto as a title hunt for the rest of his career.
But he might also need to see a co-star in the long run. Is it Kyle Lowry at 33?
If Leonard did not care about supermax in San Antonio, the only fifth year Toronto could offer him might not be an advantage. An injury changes that. This fifth year is extremely important for some players in Leonard's age group. (Look at Butler.) Many of them are afraid of not earning the same salary in the fifth grade as free agents in their early thirties. Others favor the reinstatement of free players after their 10th season – that is July 2022 for Leonard – when they become eligible for the largest contract possible.
This west coast buzz was strong in June and July. If Toronto qualifies for the final, give them 60-40 to keep Leonard. If they do not, the field becomes a huge advantage. If it was for L.A., the bet is that he defines himself instead of following LeBron. In total, this makes the official prediction. Leonard is a Clipper next season.
The Cavs has signed Love for this big $ 120 million expansion over four years because he is a very good basketball player. Ils l'ont également fait pour augmenter sa valeur commerciale. Si les Cavs sont trop loin derrière le huitième rang par rapport à la date limite des échanges, il serait naturel de passer du mode tank à l’exploration du marché de Love. (Rappelez-vous: Cleveland doit à Atlanta l'un des 10 meilleurs choix protégés.) Si aucun accord n'est conclu, ils pourraient revoir les choses pendant la saison morte.
Ils ne devraient pas s'attendre à un bon retour. L'amour vient d'avoir 30 ans. Ce salaire est énorme, même s'il diminue de 2,5 millions de dollars en 2022-2023 (à condition que la Terre n'ait pas encore fondu). Mais il y aura toujours une équipe désespérée disposée à renoncer à un type de rotation intéressant et à un choix médiocre de premier tour pour un joueur étoile. What would you say Bismack Biyombo, Jeremy Lamb et un acteur non protégé de Charlotte? Cela ne sonne pas très bien, mais il n’y aura pas de mère mère Love.
L’amour irait aux Magiciens, mais il n’ya aucun moyen de payer 123 millions de dollars combinés à Love, Porter, Beal et Wall la saison prochaine. (Oof.) D'autres prétendants vont émerger.
Un échange Korver devrait avoir lieu même si Cleveland dépasse les attentes. Donnez-lui un coup à une bague! Les 3,4 millions de dollars garantis à Korver la saison prochaine pourraient constituer un obstacle, mais cela peut être négocié. Qu'en est-il de Korver à Philly pour Jerryd Bayless et d'un choix de second tour? Une réunion avec Budenholzer à Milwaukee pourrait nécessiter un rachat; les dollars ont peu à traiter.
Les bonus caves sont une sorte de prédiction et d’exploration qu’ils devraient explorer s’ils décrochent la saison: George Hill et JR Smith ne se voient garantir que 4,87 millions de dollars combinés en 2019-20, mais gagneront 33,7 millions de dollars cette saison. Pourquoi ne pas vendre ces contrats en échange de contrats morts qui durent plus longtemps que ceux liés à Hill et Smith – plus un choix de premier tour?
Beaucoup d'équipes ont besoin d'un allégement salarial à long terme. Les équipes de reconstruction – à savoir Cleveland – ont besoin de choix de repêchage. Le retour dans les brouillons ne sera peut-être pas aussi précieux que l'espace de capuchon perdu, mais cela vaut au moins une enquête.
Et marque donc au moins la troisième fois que je prédit un commerce Vucevic. Je me trompe peut-être encore! Vooch est un bon joueur. Sa capacité à faciliter les choses du coude – ce qu’il améliore chaque saison – compense au moins un peu le gouffre du gardien de points d’Orlando. Son sauteur permet à Steve Clifford de jouer à la fois avec Gordon, Jonathan Isaac et Vucevic. Il peut conseiller Mo Bamba.
Mais le contrat de Vucevic expire enfin. Si vous perdez un bon joueur pour rien, vous devez au moins essayer d'obtenir quelque chose en retour pour lui. Orlando ne veut pas de salaire à long terme, alors ils pourraient ne pas être en mesure de trouver un rendement convenable. Vucevic serait génial avec les Lakers, mais il est difficile de trouver un commerce viable. (Vucevic a également du sens en tant que candidat à une extension, mais le Magic choisira probablement une flexibilité maximale pour davantage de Vooch.)
Les initiés voient un commerce Gordon comme inévitable. Isaac et Bamba sont la zone avant de l'avenir; Gordon n'est pas une aile. Le contrat en baisse de Gordon a été conçu par The Magic comme un atout commercial. Retournez-le pour les gars du périmètre et finissez-en.
Mais Gordon vient d'avoir 23 ans. Il a joué une grande partie de sa carrière hors de position. Clifford est son cinquième entraîneur-chef en cinq saisons. Une fois que Gordon aura découvert ce qu'il est et ce qu'il n'est pas, il pourrait devenir un joueur vedette. La magie a besoin de bons joueurs, quelle que soit leur position. Ils sont marqués de regarder Victor Oladipo s'épanouir ailleurs. Si Gordon augmente, il devient à la fois plus négociable et plus précieux pour le Magic. Orlando veut être compétent. Isaac et Bamba sont des bébés de la NBA.
Ces prévisions ne couvrent que la prochaine année civile. La magie ne doit pas se précipiter.
La baisse sans fin du rebond offensif se poursuit
Le taux de rebond de l'offensive collective de la ligue a chuté d'un point de pourcentage la saison dernière, accélérant ainsi une baisse longue et constante. Je voulais prédire un renversement de jeunesse. Quelques équipes parlent d’amplifier leur chute. À un moment donné, le rebond offensif tombera sous un niveau optimal.
Avec Andre Drummond, John Henson, Jusuf Nurkic et Ian faisant freaker Mahinmi en déjeunant 3 en pré-saison – se sortir de la position de rebond – il ne semble pas que la ligue soit arrivée à ce point.
Les Clippers veulent collecter des actifs futurs and accrocher dans la course aux séries éliminatoires, et ils ont assez de vétérans mobiles pour chevaucher les deux chemins. Il ne faut pas oublier de profiter de l'extension cheapo de Williams si elle se classe à la 10e ou à la 11e place.
Les trois autres sont des cas plus difficiles. Ils sont sur des contrats expirant ou semi-expirant, et les Clippers veulent garder un espace maximum pour deux gros poissons; ils n'absorberont pas le salaire 2019-20 en échange de l'équipage Beverley / Harris / Bradley à moins que celui-ci ne soit attaché à une étoile. Mais ces gars sont bons. Des affaires vont émerger.
La réticence des Clips à inclure Harris dans toute transaction avec Butler est curieuse. Les deux sont sur des offres expirant. La casquette de Butler est plus grande, ce qui veut dire qu'il mangerait dans leur espace cet été, mais les Clippers auraient tout de même un accès facile à un deuxième emplacement maximum.
Peut-être que les rapports sont faux. (J'en doute.) Peut-être qu'ils ne veulent pas de Butler ou ont-ils appris qu'un autre étudiant libre ne veut pas jouer avec lui. Peut-être qu'ils veulent garder Harris afin de pouvoir le signer de nouveau si cette deuxième étoile ne vient pas.
Ils pourraient tenir des pourparlers de prolongation avec Rubio maintenant, mais le Jazz semble accumuler de l’espace. Utah aime Rubio et il aime ça là-bas. D'une manière ou d'une autre, il approche encore de ses 28 ans. S'il a une autre bonne année, l'Utah pourrait ramener Rubio à un salaire pas beaucoup plus élevé qu'il ne le gagne maintenant. La ligue est à égalité avec la salle des casquettes, mais elle est également à égalité avec les meneurs. Une demi-douzaine d'étoiles super-duper absorberont une grande partie de cette pièce. I'm not sure any point guard outside of Walker can count on a frothy market.
Golden State becomes the first team with two 50/40/90 players
Both Curry and Durant have done it. Both barely missed last season. Curry shot 49.5 percent overall, and Durant hasn't cracked 90 percent from the line since 2012-13 — his only 50/40/90 campaign. Come on, you slacker! Focus!
The 50/40/90 conceit has become outdated as players jack more 3s; it's hard to make half your shots when a huge portion of them have a 40 percent hit rate in good seasons. That Curry has sniffed this so many times is ridiculous. Almost 60 percent of his attempts were 3s last season! You hear it from rival executives and media here and there: "Has Curry become underrated?"
I think there is truth to that, as absurd as it sounds. Golden State's offense has never functioned all that well without him — even in the Durant era. Curry is a revolution. LeBron is the league's best all-around player. Curry is closer to LeBron than to the jumble of guys below Durant with whom he is often lumped.
Makes too much sense.
For at least one long stretch, anyway.
The eight East playoff teams are
Boston, Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Indiana, Miami, Washington, Detroit.
The eight West playoff teams if Minnesota trades Butler
Golden State, Houston, Oklahoma City, Utah, Denver, Lakers, New Orleans, Portland.
The eight West playoff teams if Minnesota keeps Butler/everyone doesn't murder each other
Golden State, Houston, Oklahoma City, Utah, Denver, Lakers, New Orleans, Minnesota.
Do I feel good about predicting the end of San Antonio's playoff streak? No. No, I do not.
And the winner is …
Golden State over Boston in 6.
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