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President Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania on October 10. (Evan Vucci / AP)
Philip Bump
A national correspondent is largely focused on the numbers behind the policy
The Pew Research Center asked Americans to assess the importance of a problem in the United States: climate change, gun violence, illegal immigration. Members of each political party were perceived as a "very big" problem, with the most marked divisions on climate change and the way racial minorities are treated in the criminal justice system (61-point difference between the parties on each).
A majority of Democrats considered that many other problems were very big problems than Republicans. The chart below shows the elements that a very large majority of Republicans have described as very big problem and those on which at least two-thirds of Democrats expressed the same opinion.
(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)
However, this is not and probably could not be exhaustive on the part of Pew; you can ask questions about as many questions. But what is remarkable about the Republican list in particular is that for many of the problems listed, things have improved. worst under Trump.
Consider the deficit of the federal budget. Last year's tax cuts were supposed to pay off by stimulating economic growth. The extent to which these reductions have stimulated further growth is questionable, but it is clear that they have not helped to reduce the federal budget deficit. In the last fiscal year, it was the fifth highest level in US history, with an increase of more than $ 100 billion.
(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)
Why? A combination of these tax cuts, which reduced government revenue and increased spending. The deficit has increased the two years of Trump's presidency. It has also risen over the last full fiscal year of President Barack Obama's administration, having declined over the past four years.
On this very important problem seen by Republicans, illegal immigration, the table is also somewhat problematic.
Under the administration of President George W. Bush, the number of apprehensions at the border – that is to say the number of people arrested – began to decline. Since the recession, this number is less than 500,000 a year. In the first year of his tenure, Trump has reached a recent level of about 311,000.
In fiscal year 2018, however, it took a leap backward, with US Customs and Border Protection. counting 362,000 fears until the end of August. (The fiscal year ends at the end of September.) This is still below most years of the Obama administration, but the short-term trend is going in the wrong direction, in the eyes of Republican voters.
The costs of health care – or, as Pew says, the affordability of health care – can be measured in many ways, so it's a little harder to evaluate. The cost of hiring a family of four under an employer plan has been steadily increasing for years, but at a slower pace now. The premiums for the Affordable Care Act declined slightly for 2019 – after increasing by more than a third the year before.
Then there is this other major concern identified as a very big problem by 62% of Republicans: ethics in government. This too is somewhat subjective, and we allow the reader to determine how this might have changed during the Trump presidency.
However, of all these problems, it is the deficit that contrasts the most with what the Republican base says it wants to see. More than 6 out of 10 Republicans view the deficit as a very big problem. And in his first two years in office, Trump oversaw the growth of the deficit by more than a third.
Next year, the White House estimates that the deficit will rise to $ 1 trillion, the highest since 2012, when the government was still trying to counter the effects of the recession. In 2013, Trump presented his thoughts on these expenses:
Trump has long had his finger on the pulse of the Republican electorate.
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