The domination of Khalil Mack, explained in 5 games

Khalil Mack is tearing up the NFL right now. The passhandler is experiencing one of the most productive seasons of his career since he was traded in September from the Raiders to the Bears in two first-round picks. He is already one of the pioneers of the defensive player of the year this season and has the Bears 3-1 at their best start in five years.

When the Bears need him most, he creates clutch games that have helped seal the games. It is difficult to quantify that, or how much the Raiders suffer without him.

But by using Pro Football Reference's Expected Points Added (EPA) statistic, we can get a glimpse of Mack's decisive force for the Bears. We can also watch the lack of play on Raiders defense. To a certain extent, comparisons can be made between the two defenses.

Here's how Pro Football Reference defines the EPA:

"The expected points represent the estimated point value at the start of a given game, depending on the descent, the distance and the position of the field."

In a "features" article that again failed the EPA, Pro Football Reference used a 2-yard touchdown by Victor Cruz in Super Bowl XLVI to give a more detailed explanation of the statistic.

Using what teams are expected to perform in certain situations, we can assign a number to the devastation that Mack brings. Given that the positive parts of the EPA are generally good for the offensives, the EPA numbers for Mack are going to be negative, as he takes points alone from the table for adverse fouls.

Here are the five most popular games Mack has made this year, according to figures from the EPA Pro Football Reference.

Play 1: 27-yard pick-six against the Packers

Down & Distance: third and 19
Location: Packer line 30 yards
EPA difference: -6.11

The Packers were just trying to escape what had turned into a disastrous car in the first week. It was 19th and 19th on their own 30-yard line – rightly, Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy just tried to avoid a defensive game by calling a screen.

Then Khalil Mack arrived. Center Corey Linsley let go of the man he was blocking a bit too fast, forcing DeShone Kizer to rush the screen through. The ball was found in the hands of Mack, who did it for the rest of the way for six minutes just before half-time to give the Bears a 17-0 lead.

Remember, this piece came just a week after it was traded from Oakland to Chicago. Mack was an addition that had an instant impact on the Bears.

Play 2: Bag Stripe against DeShone Kizer

Down & Distance: third and 9
Location: Chicago 9-yard line
EPA difference: -3.70

Kizer made a difficult debut as a Packer, as short as it is. Green Bay was in first position on the Bears' 9-yard line. The Packers were waiting to get at least one goal in the field based solely on their field location.

After feeling the pressure of Leonard Floyd, Kizer dropped to Mack's lap. Mack has managed one of the best games we've seen so far this season, taking the ball from Kizer for the lanyard bag.

This piece took expected points off the board. Watching EPA through Mack's goal clarifies the overall use of the number. These are the type of games that can Win games – unless Aaron Rodgers decides to come back to the game and put the team on his back, that's it.

Play 3: Bag Stripe against Sam Bradford

Low and distance: second and eighth
Location: Chicago's 21-yard line
EPA difference: -3.63

Once again, Mack concocted a game when the Bears defense needed it the most during the third week. Arizona was within range of the Bears' 21-yard line.

Mack helped eliminate the Cardinals' chances of scoring points: he forced a fumble against a bag that was eventually picked up by teammate Danny Trevathan.

Arizona went from the shooting range to the ball to the Bears. It's a decisive defensive game. The Bears ended up winning 16-14, so the Cardinals did not even get the chance to get a field goal here costing them at the end of the match.

Play 4: Sam Bradford sacked for a loss of 7 yards

Low and distance: third and eighth
Location: 32-yard line from Chicago
EPA difference: -1.69

Mack was a terror against Arizona. The third and eighth, the Cardinals were on the 32 yard line of the Bears. It's a goal of 45 yards – not impossible, but not easy either. If the Cardinals came back with an incomplete pass, it would have been a reasonable field goal.

Arizona instead lost 7 yards on a Mack bag. This made the Cardinals out of their favorite target and they ended up banging the ball to close the second half – in a match that they ended up losing by two points.

Play 5: Strip bag against Russell Wilson, salvaged by Seattle

Low and distance: third and 17
Location: 50 yard line
EPA difference: -1.21

Seattle was probably doomed here. Third and 17 on the 50-yard line is essentially a no man's land. It's even worse when you face a player like Mack, an absolute terror as a scorer.

The fumble has come to be inconsequential since the Seahawks landed on it, but the bag helped the Bears' offense by placing them in a better position for their next workout – a workout where they got a goal.

The Raiders could use a defensive playmaker right now

Mack has three games that are worth at least a difference of -3.63 EPA this season. The only defensive lineman of the Raiders with more than one player is rookie Maurice Hurst, who forced a fumble against a naked bag deep in the Cleveland territory against Baker Mayfield.

The EPA probably gives us the best chance of reducing a player's performance to a singular number. We can assign a tangible point value to the player's production, game by game. Although the EPA is useful for assigning a number to the result of specific pieces, it is not a perfect translation of what Mack would do if Oakland had decided to pay for it instead of exchanging it.

However, it should be noted that the Bears currently sit first in the percentage of the bag while the Raiders are ranked last. Last year, the Bears were sixth in percentage of the bag while the Raiders were in 24th place.

The number of turnovers between the two teams is also evident. The Bears are second in the league (behind the Browns) with 11 assists, and the Raiders are tied for the 19th with five. The Bears have a more talented defense than the Raiders in general, but Mack has forced three turnovers on his side this year.

As for the decisive games that put the ball in the hands of the offensive, there may be no better than Mack at the moment. It is not hard to think that the Raiders could be 2-2, or 3-1, rather than 1-3, with the bags and turnovers that Mack brings.

Outside of the Raiders' inaugural game against the Los Angeles Rams, all of their games were decided by a score – and they led at half-time in their three defeats. They have an eight-point loss to the Miami Dolphins and a point against the Denver Broncos. In their games against Miami and Denver, they combined only one tour de force and two bags.

It's impossible to say that they would have quite won these matches if they still had Mack, but Mack has already shown that he can clear the scoring opportunities himself.

As big Jon Gruden said about passing passers, "It's hard to find a good player." The Raiders do not have this player anymore.