The Earth is much closer to the goal of the Paris climate agreement than expected

Scientists believe that the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement may not be achieved – and could be exceeded much sooner than expected.

A new study examined the impact of permafrost thaw on the levels of greenhouse gases emitted into the planet's atmosphere.

Methane and carbon dioxide trapped in endangered ice are expected to accelerate global warming well beyond the predictions of previous models.

These reservoirs of greenhouse gases have so far not been taken into account when statisticians and scientists have constructed climate change models.

When the vast amount of carbon dioxide stored in permafrost is introduced into a mathematical model, scientists say we are much closer than expected to exceed the long-term goal set by the Paris Climate Agreement.

Earlier estimates predicted that Arctic soils would store billions of tonnes of methane and carbon dioxide – a huge reservoir of powerful greenhouse gases that could send global temperatures skyward if released into the atmosphere.

The new study conducted by scientists at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria explains why the increase in global temperatures means that soils frozen throughout the year are melting faster than expected.

Permafrost is a soil that has been frozen for at least two years.

Due to this prolonged cryogenic state, the earth stores large amounts of carbon and other nutrients from organic matter.

According to scientists, it represents a "big carbon reservoir," which is slowly released into the atmosphere when the permafrost thaws.

Previous research on permafrost composition around the world suggests that it contains more than 1 000 billion tonnes of carbon.

The widespread melting of icy soil could result in a catastrophic release of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and lethal methane into the atmosphere.

These emissions are rarely taken into account in projections of potential future global warming.

Decision makers have so far focused their efforts on the linear increase of carbon dioxide emissions due to human activity and global temperature.

The new study reveals the flaw in this line of thinking and hopes to bring about a change in environmental legislation.

The Paris Agreement is an international collaboration with almost all the countries and states of the world (174 countries and the European Union) to limit global warming to less than 2 ° C (3.6 ° F) and continue its efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F) #.

In June 2017, President Trump announced his intention to withdraw his agreement to the United States, the world's second largest producer of greenhouse gases.

Dr. Thomas Gasser, a researcher with the IIASA's Ecosystem Services and Management Program, said: "Global warming is causing carbon permafrost release from previously frozen organic material and will definitely lower the CO2 budget. warming up.

"It is also an irreversible process over the course of a few centuries and can therefore be considered as a" rocking "element of the Earth's carbon-climate system that tests the linear approximation of the emission budget framework. "

The study also shows that the effect can become even more important for overtaking trajectories, which means in the first place to exceed the target level, then back down to the target.

The Paris Agreement explicitly recognizes an overtaking path, culminating first at "well below" 2 ° C (3.6 ° F) and then continuing its efforts to return to 1.5 ° C (2, 7 ° F).

But during the passing period, the increase in temperatures will cause a thawing of the carbon in the permafrost, according to the scientists.

Dr. Gasser said, "Exceeding is a risky strategy and it will be extremely difficult to return to lower levels after passing.

"However, as we are officially on a path of overtaking, we must be prepared for the possibility that we will never come back to safer levels of warming.

"Policymakers need to understand that there is no elementary proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions from human activity and global temperature, as previously thought, and that overrunning could have serious consequences. ".

The study was published in Nature Geoscience.