The economy is doing well and Trump deserves a bit of credit



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Freshly released from a trip to the Midwestern Midwest, the president is making the best possible record for his administration as the pace heats up before the mid-term elections. He launches a strong economic message with fervor that Democrats must still match this election cycle.

Presidents are usually too blamed when the economy goes bad, since slowdowns are often caused by external shocks or cyclical factors, but that

Trump is not the type of person to let that pass.

Often, the president's hyperbolic assessment of his own performance is at odds with the facts. But the publication of GDP growth figures in the second quarter on Friday could give it a real reason to celebrate – based on real and indisputable numbers.

It may also be his best chance to argue that a huge and controversial tax break, the only one important law that he has managed to enact is, as he has said, unleashed prosperity.

"We have never seen anything happening right now," Trump told a crowd of steelworkers in Illinois on Thursday.

"GDP figures will be announced tomorrow, I do not know what they are, but I think they'll be great," he added. "You know, when we took control, it was really low, and it was going way down, much lower, and it was going to be fast, and big things happened." In fact, the analysts' consensus seems to be that economic growth for the second quarter could be between 2.7% and 4.5% – – and easily exceeds the figure of 2% recorded for the first three months of the year.

the search for a boost

A high growth number would give the White House a boost after days it almost passed from the humiliating performance of the Russian president with Russian President Vladimir Putin almost two weeks ago

.It will also offer Trump a personal respite, as he must feel that the legal walls are closing in on him. "One of his most important confidants, Allen Weisselberg, h The New York Times attorney reported I udi that special advisor Robert Mueller was reviewing Trump's tweets, potentially to see if they can help him build a case that the president acted with malicious malefactors. intent when he sacked former FBI director James Comey.

Trump always tries to change the subject. In the current state of the economy, it may have ammunition.

Unemployment is lower than it's been for decades, corporate profits are solid and it seems unlikely that a sudden crisis threat that could derail things before Americans polls Recent studies show that the economy is one of the few issues where Trump addresses the kind of numbers that presidents traditionally need to be re-elected.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from July 18 to 23 showed that the majority of voters thought that Trump had weakened the United States abroad, was too close to Putin and had lied about important questions. But a close majority – 49% – supported its management of the economy.

Republican hopes of fending off a democratic blue wave and boosting Trump's re-election prospects by 2020 may depend on more voters deciding than for all the turmoil. dislocation and lies of the Trump presidency, it made them more economically secure and gave them a salary increase for which they waited years.

The GOP's Best Bet

It's no exaggeration to say that the economy represents Trump's best argument in the fall. And Trump seems to be more and more frustrated that the story is not told.

Pointing the press cameras during his trip to Illinois, he complained, "They are dying to see us make a small mistake." [19659002] "Even though we have been here for a little over a year and a half … we have really peaked in the last six months," he said.

Trump can argue that he is he does not have the credit he deserves on the economy, but he often only has to s & # 39; 39 to account for it himself, given the daily political turmoil that he creates.

and his White House has shown growing concern in recent days about the Trump districts that sent him to the White House.

While the President said Thursday that his steel and aluminum grants on China and an ally Administration just unveiled a $ 12 billion aid program for farmers who are victims of Chinese retaliation targeting Trump voters who already have a painful impact on US soybean and pork exports.

The president also appeared to withdraw from the brink of a trade war with the European Union on Wednesday, basically agreeing to an agreement to start talking about tariff cuts.

"We have just opened Europe," Trump said in Dubuque, Iowa, earlier on Thursday, grossly overestimating the significance of his agreement with Europe.
Key House and governor races in the states that Trump has won and will need again in 2020 are b More and more to get bogged down in the debate over the direction of Trump's trade policy. A series of NBC / Marist polls this week showed its approval rating below 40% in Michigan and Wisconsin, which paved the way for the presidency.

There are also a lot of subjects to quibble about Trump's economic allegations. While growth may be roaring, critics say that tax cuts can not filter significantly to blue-collar Americans and are certain to widen economic inequality.

The GOP, which once boasted – at least in the opposition – of fiscal responsibility, blew the deficit. Wage growth, a long-time drawback since the Great Recession, is still fairly flat, which means that for some voters, Trump's goal zone dance may seem a bit premature.
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