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Brussels is planning to shake up the UK by unveiling strict emergency measures for a Brexit without an agreement that could impose flight cancellations and leave exporters facing a massive disruption if Britain leaves the EU without an exit agreement in March.
The European Commission is expected to unveil its plans next week in its most detailed guidance to date on the emergency measures to take to alleviate some of the worst effects of Britain's fall out of the EU .
Contrary to expectations in London, the plan will likely include a limited number of initiatives over a period of up to eight months, diplomats have said they saw the document in the Financial Times.
Notably, the EU does not provide for special arrangements for customs or road transport, but only limited provisions for financial services – a decision that, if done well, would cause long queues for financial services. Waiting and operational difficulties in ports and airports.
The minimalist emergency plan, designed to be put in place in the absence of any breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations, would increase pressure on the already tense negotiations between the UK and the UK. EU in anticipation of the summit to be held on 17 October. The plans of the EU would then be realized by December.
However, the timing of the document indicates that Brussels could use it as leverage in the negotiations, eventually reviewing the non-transaction plans. An EU diplomat familiar with the preparations said that the Commission was planning to adjust the tone of the draft according to the progress made in the negotiations in the coming days.
"It will be more difficult if everything gets stuck and things are going well," said the diplomat.
According to the Commission's plan, airlines such as Ryanair and International Airline Group, the parent company of British Airways, would not benefit from any additional transition period to comply with the regulatory requirement of the airline. EU consisting of holding 50% of the EU's capital for a European exploitation license.
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The committee urges the groups to take "all necessary measures" to meet the ownership requirements – which may involve forced redemptions by UK shareholders to avoid severe limitations on where and when they could fly. within the EU.
The Commission has so far refused to give details of its Brexit plans without agreement for fear that this will disturb the negotiations. But just six months from Brexit, EU Member States have asked Brussels to speed up its preparations in the event that no agreement is reached in time.
Brussels will set out the general principles for identifying areas requiring special measures, which should only mitigate significant disruptions in areas of 'vital interest to the Union'. The measures would be applied by the EU until the end of 2019 on a unilateral basis. They could be dismissed without notice, according to diplomats.
The plans are intended to allow basic air services, allowing flights to land and return directly to the United Kingdom, and to extend air security certificates and security exemptions for British travelers in transit. A visa-free trip is envisaged for British citizens, provided that it is reciprocal.
In the draft, the commission states that many of the non-transaction risks for the financial sector have "decreased considerably" thanks to the preparatory measures taken by private institutions. He insists that there would be "no general problem" with the enforceability of contracts – a problem raised by the UK as a potential threat to financial stability.
However, cleared derivative contracts have been identified as an area with "potential risks to financial stability in a non-transaction scenario". The commission indicated that it was still evaluating the measures to be taken.
The EU also states that it is unnecessary to relax customs and agricultural controls. Instead, he urges the Member States to be ready to apply the EU regulation on complete imports from the first day of Brexit.
Access rights for road hauliers would be limited to a permit system covering only 5% of existing traffic. There would be no mechanism for extending EU licenses, according to a diplomat who saw the document.
The Commission has also urged the Member States to rely on Brussels' "collective plan" for an uncompromising Brexit and to refrain from concluding bilateral agreements with the United Kingdom that would threaten the single market – even if it is not the case. they had the power.
Even when she discusses a scenario in which a withdrawal agreement is reached with the UK, the commission still adopts a direct tone on the terms of the 22-month post-Brexit transition. "The UK becomes a decision maker, not a decision maker," the newspaper says, according to the diplomat.
He cites the example of the European Union empowered to order the extermination of cattle after an outbreak of disease in Britain "the United Kingdom having no decision-making role".
After a meeting of European leaders in Salzburg, Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the commission, said last month that Brussels was ready for any scenario of non-agreement. "Do not worry, be happy," he says.
