The factories sector in China was hit in September by trade frictions



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The Trump administration has drawn attention to the growing signs of economic weakness in China and weakening its stock markets as evidence that the United States is winning the trade war, but Beijing remained provocative, promising to stimulate domestic demand to mitigate the effects of trade shocks. On September 24, Washington imposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion and threatens to impose duties on almost all the goods that China exports to the United States.

Plans for new trade talks have collapsed in recent weeks and both sides seem to want to wage a long struggle, glancing at the prospects for global economic growth.

Long Guoqiang, deputy director of the Chinese government's think tank on development, said Sunday that the impact of tariffs on some exporters would be severe.

"Some will reduce production, some will cut workers and some may even close," added Long.

Although official data on Chinese exports has been surprisingly resilient so far, many analysts believe that companies have shipped shipments to the US to circumvent successive tariff series, which increases the risk from a drop in fees. The weakening of the decline in export orders could be at the origin of this theory.

China's export-dependent cities and provinces are already showing pressure.

Guangdong, the largest Chinese province in terms of gross domestic product, recorded a decline in exports in the first eight months of the previous year.

Demand in China had already slowed down before the US commercial arm floundered, a multi-year crackdown on riskier loans and debt began to drive up corporate borrowing costs. Investment growth in fixed assets reached a record high.

In recent months, policy makers have focused on stimulating growth to cushion the economy and weather the storm. They sought to reduce financing costs, increase small business loans, reduce taxes and speed up infrastructure projects.

But analysts note that it will take time for such measures to halt the sluggish economy, with some forecasts worsening before they improve.

China is likely to place increasing hopes in its services sector, with rising wages in this sector giving consumers greater purchasing power. The official PMI index for September moved services to 54.9, the highest level since June, against 54.2 in August.

The central bank has reduced the reserve requirement ratios of banks three times this year to get more cash, and many cuts are expected.

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