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The collapse of Lehman Brothers 10 years ago marked the point of no return from the global financial crisis. But it also caused a new crisis: a 4 and a half year rise in the price of oil, which reached new highs.
At the same time, the oil market has undergone profound changes since 2008 and some of these transformations put downward pressure on the cost of crude oil.
As these forces work against each other, volatility should remain.
When prices were first published in 2003, countries beyond OPEC were not doing much to help the cartel meet growing demand. Today, the United States is on its way to becoming the world's largest oil producer. Production has more than doubled since 2008, reaching 10.7 million barrels a day, fueled by a technological revolution that allows US drillers to release oil and gas from shale rock.
The US oil boom has largely undermined worries about the "peak oil" – the theory that global oil production is expected to soon decline, causing crude oil prices to plummet and plunge the world into crisis. Instead, the emergence of electric cars and efforts to mitigate climate change are forcing forecasters to predict when oil demand will reach its peak.
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