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The Falcons started the 2018 season in the same way as at the end of 2017: a turnover down in the red zone in the final seconds of a tight defeat against the Eagles, in the same zone from the Philadelphia Stadium. This is the same symptom of the same problem that occurred for much of last year, but it seemed even worse last night, for reasons that went beyond the groups of players and calling offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian .
Atlanta is ranked 23rd in the effectiveness of the red zone in 2017, scoring 50% of its trips inside the 20. But last night, the Falcons found the goal area on only one of their five trips in the red zone the 20-yard line. Sarkisian certainly had some shocking moments, for example when he went several times with heavy packs on the first chance of the Atlanta red zone (which ended up empty). But quarterback Matt Ryan, who was constantly on the Eagles' defensive line, also made a number of unforced errors. Ryan was often imprecise, and his throws were missing, and it was fair to wonder if he could be hurt.
In Ryan's 2016 season, when Kyle Shanahan was still calling the games, the Falcons attack was aggressive and unstoppable, at least 28-3. They converted 61.9% of their opportunities in the red zone, good for ninth place in the NFL, and according to data from analyst Warren Sharp, they recorded a success rate of 58% on the third declines. The reason for this? Per Sharp, it was Shanahan's willingness to mix things up, with Ryan targeting his goals 15 times, receivers 15 times and semifinals eight times. Last year, with Sarkisian at the controls, the Falcons tried to rely too heavily on their broad targets in the 20:24 targets for receivers, only three at tight ends and six at half-points. Their success rate at these throws was only 38%.
Last night, inside the red zone, Ryan was only 2-for-10 for 13 yards and an interception. He did, however, try to mix things up, targeting the receivers four times, the two tight ends and the U-turns, plus a throwaway and another non-man attempt on which he was touched upon his release. Let's take a closer look at what went wrong.
In their first possession, the Falcons did good things. Watch how this combination of roads allowed Julio Jones to open, Ryan doing his part by looking below to free linebackers and security:
The problems started, however, soon after. A Devonta Freeman put them in second and second at 1, and the Falcons went with their jumbo package, which included three tight ends, a solid back and no receiver. Jones was not even on the ground.
This game ended with Freeman gorging himself after trying to run behind the left guard.
In the next game, the Falcons became heavy again, only to stagger things after being placed – a misleading maneuver that included Freeman in the slot machine, where he got a good match against linebacker Nathan Gerry:
Freeman's is open too. But Ryan launched his throw:
The fourth, Sarkisian became heavy again:
Freeman was handed the ball and was dropped for a loss of two. The Falcons did all this even though the Eagles were without linebacker Nigel Bradham, suspended.
Atlanta was back in the red zone on his next possession. This time he went with three receivers and Ryan used an action game. But in the second place of 7, their three receivers were piloted and sent to the end zone, with little room for maneuver and nothing to release them:
A tight pass from Austin Hooper was found incomplete after Hooper was knocked down. The hawks settled for a goal on the field.
The Falcons returned to the red zone only at the beginning of the fourth quarter, after an Eagles turnover. In third and third of 15, Jones was paired with Rasul Douglas in a single cover, which happened:
After another Eagles turnover, the Falcons quickly found themselves in the 20-yard line from Philadelphia. They were heavy on the first and the goal of 9, but their blocking system inside the area worked; They have successfully doubled defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and left-hand guard Andy Levitre picked up a linebacker to give Tevin Coleman plenty of room for a real touchdown:
Then came the final fateful sequence. Atlanta had the first and tenth of the 10 with 24 seconds remaining, and no timeout. Ryan threw it first. And in second place, he tried to throw a throw to the back of the end zone to Jones, who was doubled. But notice that Jones was lined up in the slot, which facilitated the dubbing of the Eagles:
Ryan was hit as he released the ball to third base – a problem he faced all night, as the Falcons continued to move the ball in the final run (Cox, which was sensational for them). Eagles). Focus). After a penalty that gave them another shot in the fourth row, Jones was again doubled to the line of scrimmage, as Cris Collinsworth noted before the game. But Atlanta ran a pick play to get Jones singled out. Ryan has just left the field. Game over.
Ryan finished the night by completing less than 50% of his passes. He targeted Jones on a total of 44% of his throws, and Jones accounted for 67% of Atlanta's receiving yards. Rookie Calvin Ridley, the Falcons first-round pick, was targeted twice all night and failed to get a pass.
The Eagles have an outstanding defense line, and they have not allowed a point in the last two minutes of last season, a trend that continued last night. The sample size is small and mitigating factors exist, but the Falcons spent the off season knowing that the red zone attack would be a cause for concern. They are always worried.
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