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The democratic hopes of a wave of elections that would lead them to a significant majority in the House have been tempered in recent weeks in the midst of a changing political landscape and a stream of raging attacks from Republicans.
Democrats remain favored to win, but GOP leaders believe they can minimize the number of seats they could lose – and perhaps find a way to preserve their advantage in the House.
The tightening, just over two weeks from the end, reflects the increase in President Trump's approval rate and the controversy between Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh in momentum for party candidates in a number of conservative and rural districts considered promising. catches.
But Democrats have retained their strength in the main suburbs, where polls show that angry voters against Trump are likely to help overthrow the seats occupied by Republicans.
"In recent weeks, the chances of Democrats being redeemed have not really diminished, but they have increased the chances of a small Democratic majority," said David Wasserman, editor of the non-political political report Cook. He estimated that Democrats had between 70 and 75% chance of winning.
The fate of the Trump presidency is at stake: that the Democrats get the power to investigate its administration and thwart its agenda, or that emboldened Republicans realize the president's vision for the country, building the construction industry. a border wall at the repeal of the Obama era health law.
President Trump, left, listens to Garland representative "Andy" Barr (right) speaking at a rally at the Alumni Coliseum in Richmond, Kentucky on Saturday, October 13, 2018. (Andrew Harnik / AP)
Together, the two parties earmarked approximately $ 150 million of air time for television and radio spots between Tuesday and the November 6 mid-term elections, according to data obtained by the Washington Post. 39, essential money from the Democrats. Many should be attack ads.
The cold calculations made by both parties in recent days underline the rapid evolution of political fortunes.
The GOP is redirecting a million dollars from one district of a Colorado suburb to Florida, forcing incumbent representative, Mike Coffman, to attempt to retain a full-fledged spot in Miami. Democrat Donna Shalala, former secretary of health and social services in the Clinton administration, is struggling to part with Maria Elvira Salazar, a former US Cuban television presenter, in a district won by Hillary Clinton nearly 20 points.
The Republicans also pulled out on an open seat held by the Democrats in Nevada, which includes some of the suburbs of Las Vegas. Clinton won there too.
Meanwhile, Democrats cut funds in a Nebraska district held by the GOP and in a district of northern Minnesota run by Democrats, two places won by Trump. The latter represents one of the best chances for the GOP to go from blue to red.
In other areas of Trump, such as Republican GOP headquarters Fred Upton in southwestern Michigan, Democrats added money.
To galvanize their constituents, Republicans aired attack ads claiming Democrats would target Trump and Kavanaugh, unleash the power of the mob and threaten cultural values.
"We are closing with a bit of fear," said Scott Reed, senior policy strategist at the US Chamber of Commerce, describing the approach taken by the GOP. Reed predicted that Republicans would keep their losses to 20 seats in the House, just shy of the 23 Democrats who must return to power.
Republicans are favored to keep their majority in the Senate, which stands at 51-49.
"The left has Feehan. It will never be for you, "announces the veteran of the army who did two tours of duty in Iraq and who won the bronze star.
Democrat Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot who is trying to overthrow Republican Rep. Garland "Andy" Barr in Kentucky, is one of the major targets of publicity attacks that attach to Liberal leaders. and the protesters. city, to rural areas. Trump won 15 points in 2016 and campaigned for Barr this month. The polls show a tight race.
McGrath said that although she understands the emotions felt during the Kavanaugh battle, some anti-Kavanaugh demonstrations were "useless". She also expressed frustration that Republicans associate her views with other Democrats who support her, but with whom she does not agree. .
"I do not think it's fair or right," McGrath said.
Conflicting cultural wars could help the GOP to hang on to Trump's battlefields in 2016. But in many of the 25 districts that Hillary Clinton won with Republicans, they are facing strong winds. In these highly suburban areas, anger with Trump and the GOP is intense, especially among women. Democrats are hammering Republicans about health care with the goal of increasing their appeal beyond party boundaries.
Republicans face other hurdles, including strong fundraising and Democratic enthusiasm, as well as struggling GOP opponents in some Midwestern countries that could hurt candidates.
In a new Pennsylvania suburb of Philadelphia, where Clinton gained two percentage points, Democrat Scott Wallace, a wealthy philanthropist, said Kavanaugh's controversial fight had improved his chances of dismissing the GOP representative. Brian Fitzpatrick.
"On the independent and democratic side, and of course moderate Republicans, there is anger over the treatment of Dr. Ford," Wallace said, referring to Christine Blasey Ford, who accused Kavanaugh of assaulting her. sexually while she was a teenager. Kavanaugh denied the allegations. "My observation is that anger is a stronger motivator than gratitude. So, I think the election day, you will see that the Kavanaugh effect will produce more energy on our side. "
A recent New York Times Upshot / Siena College poll showed Wallace leading Fitzpatrick. The Republican had a long lead in the polls earlier in the year.
Health care has been at the heart of the Democratic ads, in which Republicans who have repeatedly voted to repeal the law pose a threat to the protection of people with pre-existing health conditions. Democrats also criticized the Republicans who supported the tax bill, which did not produce the political boost the GOP envisioned.
"Voters have always talked about the number one health care issue," said Representative Katherine M. Clark (Mass.), Vice President of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Recruitment Committee. Clark said that she had gone to six states in the past three weeks and that the Democratic energy was still higher than she had ever seen at halfway.
Democrats worry about Hispanic voters in home runs. While Latinos tend to vote Democrats, the question of whether campaigns have sufficiently encouraged strong participation has weighed on strategists and political party leaders.
Representative Will Hurd (R-Tex.), A moderate in immigration whose district includes about 800 kilometers from the border and many Latin American residents, has put himself in a better position than many other Republicans who run in the Clinton districts by distancing themselves from Trump. "I am confident that when the voters of the TX-23 will note my paper on polling day, I will be classified" past ", he said in a statement to the Post.
The congressional vote, a measure often used in public polls, shows that Democrats are in a position to seize the majority. Voters are asked if they would vote for the Democrat or the Republican, without names.
Among registered voters, Democratic candidates led from 53% to 42%, according to a survey conducted by Washington Post-ABC News this month. Forecasters and electoral analysts believe that Democrats need a six to eight point advantage to get the majority.
The same survey showed that Trump's approval, another indicator, had risen 5 points to 43% after peaking in August. Representative Tom Cole (R-Okla.), Who chaired GOP House's campaign arm during the tough 2008 election cycle for Republicans, said the sentiment was different among Republicans.
"They resigned in 2008," said Cole, who was in danger of becoming a majority, rising from one in three to one in two. "I think the atmosphere is that we have a real shot,"
In a memo to donors, Corry Bliss, head of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC linked to President Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), Wrote that the map was going in the right direction for Republicans, but the Democrats had the financial advantage. He said his group had raised $ 10 million in two weeks, but the Democrats were outpacing GOP spending on television during major races.
Another worrying factor for Republicans: their governorship candidates in Illinois, Michigan and Kansas, who are lagging behind or in a tight race and who therefore offer few ways to win the election. Republicans defend a dozen competitive or potentially competitive seats in the House in these states, according to Cook's political report.
Emily Guskin and Scott Clement contributed to this report.
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