Even though the tropical Atlantic is devoid of organized storms at this time, conditions could again emerge over the next few weeks with some areas of potential development.
September 10th marked the climax of the Atlantic hurricane season from a climatological point of view. However, the hurricane season does not officially end on November 30th. The next few weeks in mid-October often bring several tropical storms and several hurricanes. This year may not be an exception.
AccuWeather's long-range tropical meteorologists, led by hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski, are planning two or four more tropical storms, one or two of which could become hurricanes, following Tropical Storm Joyce.
There were 10 tropical storms, five of which became hurricanes. Three named systems, Alberto, Florence and Gordon, landed in the United States.
Until now, Florence has been the only major hurricane (category 3 or higher) in the basin.
On April 2, AccuWeather predicted between 12 and 15 tropical storms, six to eight hurricanes, and three to four named storm dumps. Due to El Niño potential, the number of tropical storms and six hurricanes.
"We are looking at several things, including current conditions, the status of El Niño and another cycle that tracks the rise of air over the tropics," said Kottlowski.
El Niño is the warm phase of the surface temperatures of tropical Pacific seas. When El Niño is booming, the air rises and promotes much of the tropical activity in the Pacific. At the same time, the westerly winds tend to blow from North America over much of the Atlantic Basin. These strong winds tend to suppress tropical activities on the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the western part of the Atlantic Ocean.
"The predicted El Niño phenomenon for the autumn and the coming winter has fallen behind, and we are still technically in a neutral phase," Kottlowski said.
See more related to the hurricane season:
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Destruction caused by Hurricane Florence
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NEW BERN, NC – SEPTEMBER 14: Neighborhoods are flooded after storm surge of Hurricane Florence flooded the Neuse River on September 14, 2018 in New Bern, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina as a Category 1 storm, and heavy rains forced hundreds of people to seek emergency assistance in the vicinity of New Bern, North Carolina. at the confluence of the rivers Nueces and Trent. The storm has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)
NEW BERN, NC – SEPTEMBER 14: Houses are flooded after a storm surge from Hurricane Florence flooded the Neuse River on September 14, 2018 in New Bern, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina as a Category 1 storm, and heavy rains forced hundreds of people to seek emergency assistance in the vicinity of New Bern, North Carolina. at the confluence of the rivers Nueces and Trent. The storm has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)
NEW BERN, NC – SEPTEMBER 14: Volunteers from across North Carolina help rescue residents and their animals from their flooded homes during Hurricane Florence on September 14, 2018 in New Bern, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina as a Category 1 storm and heavy rains forced hundreds of people to call for emergency relief in the New Bern, North Carolina area at the confluence of the rivers Nuese and Trent. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)
An abandoned minivan is on a flooded road near New Bern, North Carolina, on September 14, 2018 during Hurricane Florence. – Florence crashed Friday on the east coast of the United States with high winds, torrential rains and deadly storm surges as emergency crews rushed to rescue hundreds of stranded people by the floods. Forecasters have warned of catastrophic floods and other disorders caused by the monster storm, which is only category 1 but physically expands and is dangerous. (Photo by Logan Cyrus / AFP) (Photo credit should read LOGAN CYRUS / AFP / Getty Images)
Debris lies on the ground of a damaged Royal Dutch Shell Plc service station during Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina, USA on Friday, September 14, 2018. Hurricane Florence Bloomberg causes high winds and torrential floods. Carolina, killing at least two people in the area. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski / Bloomberg via Getty Images
A fallen tree is found in front of a house during Hurricane Florence in downtown Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday, September 14, 2018. Hurricane Florence Bloomberg causes high winds, heavy rains and floods torrential. at least two people crossing the area. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski / Bloomberg via Getty Images
A fallen tree is found in front of a house during Hurricane Florence in downtown Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday, September 14, 2018. Hurricane Florence Bloomberg causes high winds, heavy rains and floods torrential. at least two people crossing the area. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski / Bloomberg via Getty Images
On Friday, September 14, 2018, residents of downtown Wilmington, North Carolina, cross a street blocked by a fallen tree. Bloomberg, Hurricane Florence, caused violent winds, rained and flooded North Carolina. at least two people crossing the area. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski / Bloomberg via Getty Images
NEW BERN, NC – SEPTEMBER 14: Neighborhoods are flooded after storm surge of Hurricane Florence flooded the Neuse River on September 14, 2018 in New Bern, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina as a Category 1 storm, and heavy rains forced hundreds of people to seek emergency assistance in the vicinity of New Bern, North Carolina. at the confluence of the rivers Nueces and Trent. The storm has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)
On September 14, 2018, a hurricane was destroyed in Wilmington, North Carolina. A house was destroyed by falling trees. Florence was hit Friday by strong winds, torrential rains and deadly storm surges. save hundreds of people stranded in their homes by floodwaters. Forecasters have warned of catastrophic floods and other disorders caused by the monster storm, which is only category 1 but physically expands and is dangerous. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo credit: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP / Getty Images)
A fallen tree can be seen on Middle Street, near the Neuse, in New Bern, North Carolina, on September 14, 2018 during Hurricane Florence. – Florence crashed Friday on the east coast of the United States with high winds, torrential rains and deadly storm surges as emergency crews rushed to rescue hundreds of stranded people by the floods. Forecasters have warned of catastrophic floods and other disorders caused by the monster storm, which is only category 1 but physically expands and is dangerous. (Photo by Logan Cyrus / AFP) (Photo credit should read LOGAN CYRUS / AFP / Getty Images)
TOPSHOT – A father and his daughter learn that friends were injured and later died when a tree fell on their home during Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina on September 14, 2018 A mother and her baby were killed Their home in Wilmington, North Carolina, was the first victim of Hurricane Florence, police said Friday. Wilmington police tweeted that the father had been rushed to the hospital with unspecified wounds. Hurricane Florence hit the coast of Wilmington on Friday morning, hitting the coastal city with strong winds and torrential rains. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo credit: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP / Getty Images)
Wilmington, North Carolina, Sept. 14: An unidentified woman reacts to news of a home that a large tree has fallen with three trapped after Hurricane Florence hit the area, the September 14, 2018 in Wilmington, North Carolina. A man was taken out of the house in critical condition. Hurricane Florence hit Wilmington as a Category 1 storm, causing extensive damage and flooding along the coastline of Carolina. (Photo by Mark Wilson / Getty Images)
The flood waters of the Trent River flood a park in Pollocksville, North Carolina, on September 14, 2018 during Hurricane Florence. – Florence crashed Friday on the east coast of the United States with high winds, torrential rains and deadly storm surges as emergency crews rushed to rescue hundreds of stranded people by the floods. Forecasters have warned of catastrophic floods and other disorders caused by the monster storm, which is only category 1 but physically expands and is dangerous. (Photo by Logan Cyrus / AFP) (Photo credit should read LOGAN CYRUS / AFP / Getty Images)
A vehicle immersed in the waters following Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Saturday, September 15, 2018. The blooming rhythm and catastrophic floods could cause $ 20 billion in damage and have already caused at least six deaths, even though it has weakened in a tropical storm. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski / Bloomberg via Getty Images
WILMINGTON, NC – SEPTEMBER 15: Mike Pollack searches for a drain in the yard of his flooded waterfront a day after passing Hurricane Florence on September 15, 2018 in Wilmington, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina as a Category 1 storm on Friday and at least five deaths were attributed to the storm, which continues to produce heavy rain and strong winds spreading over near 200 miles. (Photo by Mark Wilson / Getty Images)
Debris lies on the ground of a damaged Dutch Shell service station during Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina on Saturday, September 15, 2018. A blooming rhythm and catastrophic floods could cause damage of $ 20 billion. and has already caused at least six deaths, even though it has weakened into a tropical storm. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski / Bloomberg via Getty Images
The floodwaters washed up on a warning sign that was partially repelled by Hurricane Florence on Oak Island, North Carolina, USA, on September 15, 2018. REUTERS / Jonathan Drake
The hazard warning lights of an abandoned car continue to flash as it is submerged in a flood during the early hours of dawn after Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina, USA, the September 15, 2018. REUTERS / Jonathan Drake
A street lamp is shot down on a flooded road as Hurricane Florence arrives ashore in Wilmington, North Carolina, United States, September 14, 2018. REUTERS / Carlo Allegri
The Neuse water floods the streets as Hurricane Florence passes through the city of New Bern, North Carolina, United States, on September 14, 2018. REUTERS / Eduardo Munoz
The Union Point Park complex is awash with the passing of Hurricane Florence in New Bern, North Carolina, United States on September 13, 2018. REUTERS / Eduardo Munoz TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
A fallen tree sits on a house during Hurricane Florence in the city of Wilson, North Carolina, United States, September 14, 2018. REUTERS / Eduardo Munoz
A fallen tree sits on a house during Hurricane Florence in the city of Wilson, North Carolina, United States, September 14, 2018. REUTERS / Eduardo Munoz
Boats pushed back from the wharf are seen on a street during Hurricane Florence in the city of New Bern, North Carolina, United States, September 14, 2018. REUTERS / Eduardo Munoz
Rescue personnel use a small means of transport, a flood victim and her animals to dry the land of heavy rain in Florence, now a tropical storm, in New Bern, NC, Saturday, September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / Steve Helber )
Saturday, September 15, 2018, a sailboat is pushed against a house and a garage collapsed after the violent wind and the rain of Florence, become a tropical storm, blew on New Bern, N.C. (AP Photo / Steve Helber)
A van drives on a flooded road in front of a farm surrounded by fields flooded by tropical storm Florence, in Hyde County, North Carolina, on Saturday, September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / Steve Helber)
A tree felled by Hurricane Florence lies next to homes in New Bern, NS, on Saturday, September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / Steve Helber)
A member of the US Coast Guard crosses Mill Creek Road to check homes after Tropical Storm Florence struck Newport, NC on Saturday, September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / Tom Copeland)
A member of the US Coast Guard crosses Mill Creek Road to check homes after Tropical Storm Florence struck Newport, NC on Saturday, September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / Tom Copeland)
A 40-foot yacht sits in the yard of a storm-damaged house on East Front Street in New Bern, NB on Saturday, September 15, 2018. The boat failed with a storm surge and storms. debris from Hurricane Florence. (Gray Whitley / Sun Journal via AP)
Resident Joseph Eudi examines flood debris and Hurricane Florence damage at a house on East Front Street in New Bern, NB on Saturday, September 15, 2018. (Gray Whitley / Sun Journal via AP )
FILE – This archive photo from February 19, 2014 shows L.V. Sutton complex operated by Duke Energy since the landing of Sutton Lake in Wilmington, North Carolina. Duke Energy says heavy Florence rains have collapsed coal dump at power plant Duke spokeswoman Paige Sheehan said Saturday evening, Sept. 15, 2018, about 2,000 cubic yards ash had been moved to the LV Sutton power plant near Wilmington. (AP Photo / Randall Hill, File)
FILE – On this Tuesday afternoon of September 12, 2018, an aerial photo provided by DroneBase, an aerial view of the Cape Fear River, North Carolina, in Buckhorn, North Carolina, appears in front of Hurricane Florence . A record flood is expected on the Cape Fear River in North Carolina over the coming week and signs of flooding are already apparent. The Cape Fear River is expected to reach nearly 19 meters in Fayetteville on Tuesday, September 18th. (DroneBase via AP, File)
FEATURE – On Thursday, September 13, 2018, a man is jogging on the sidewalk of the Cape Fear River in downtown Wilmington, North Carolina, while Hurricane Florence threatens the coast. A record flood is expected on the Cape Fear River over the coming week and signs of flooding are already visible. The Cape Fear River is expected to reach nearly 19 feet (62 feet) at Fayetteville on Tuesday, September 18th. (AP Photo / Chuck Burton, File)
FILE – On this Wednesday, September 12, 2018, Joe Gore, left, and Joshua Adcock are preparing for Hurricane Florence while they board a window on a house. Emerald Island NC Before and after a hurricane, Ace is the perfect place. And Home Depot, Lowe's and many other hardware and building outlets. Not surprisingly, these companies are planning storms like Hurricane Florence all year round. (AP Photo / Tom Copeland, File)
Residents of an assisted residence are evacuated to a church as a precaution against potential floods that the city could see from Tropical Storm Florence in Fayetteville, North Carolina on Saturday, September 15, 2018. After blowing) Winds Florence parked almost the entire weekend at the top of the Carolinas as she pulled hot water from the ocean and threw it onto the coast. (AP Photo / David Goldman)
Members of the Nebraska Task Force 1 Urban Search and Rescue team help load an elderly resident into a bus while they evacuate assisted living to a church to avoid a possible flood from tropical storm Florence to Fayetteville, North Carolina. , September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / David Goldman)
Ernestine Crumpler, 80, is assisted by members of the Nebraska Task Force 1 Urban Search and Rescue team who are evacuating an assisted living facility to a church from potential flooding of Tropical Storm Florence in Fayetteville, Carolina North. , September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / David Goldman)
Residents of an assisted living center sit in a bus while they are evacuated to a church as a precaution against potential flooding of the city since Tropical Storm Florence in Fayetteville, North Carolina, Saturday, September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / David Goldman)
Members of the Nebraska Task Force 1 Urban Search and Rescue team help load an elderly resident into a bus while they evacuate assisted living to a church to avoid a possible flood from tropical storm Florence to Fayetteville, North Carolina. , September 15, 2018. (AP Photo / David Goldman)
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"That's one of the reasons we've witnessed in recent weeks a wave of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and the Pacific." El Niño's delay was a big one. on guard during the initial forecast of hurricanes and its update in summer ".
Another parameter allows you to follow a slowly rising air wave, which can lead to storms that can develop in tropical conditions when the water is warm and in good conditions. It moves from west to east around the equator. This parameter is called Madden-Jullian Oscillation, or MJO for short.
"The MJO should be in a favorable phase for the rise of air over the Atlantic Basin next week," said Kottlowski.
The increase of air in the absence of disturbing winds may allow another tropical activity during the latter part of September to early October.
AccuWeather long-range meteorologists still believe that El Niño will go into service this fall.
"If El Niño does what our team thinks long-term, the westerlies of North America will tend to cross the Atlantic and stop the hurricane season later in October and in November, "said Kottlowski.
"Still, the tropical storm or hurricane could have a direct impact on the United States for the rest of the season," he said.
Are there immediate tropical concerns?
What was Isaac was torn apart by disturbing winds over the western Caribbean. Although this feature is not expected to develop, its moisture, associated with a former tropical depression in the eastern Pacific, could increase rainfall in parts of Texas and the southern lowlands this weekend.
"In the short term, there are three features that AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring to detect the eventual formation of tropical storms until the end of September," Kottlowski said.
A system is located in the middle of the North Atlantic and contains a portion of the humidity of Florence.
While Florence's traffic has expired in this area, some of its original moisture can spawn a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane during the last week of September. The rest of the humidity of Florence should invade the British Isles this weekend with rain and wind.
Further south, a tropical disturbance, or tropical wave, has a slight chance to organize east of the Leeward and Windward Islands in the Caribbean over the next few days. However, if this system that approaches the Caribbean waits too long to emerge, disruptive winds near the Caribbean may tear up the disturbances.
Meanwhile, a new tropical wave has just appeared in Africa and is expected to move west.
This last tropical wave could evolve to the west during the next week.
"If this last tropical wave stays south of an area of disruptive winds, it could develop and could approach Windward and Leeward Islands later next week," Kottlowski said.
"So, even if we are above normal, when it comes to the average peak of the hurricane season, the hurricane season is even longer," Kottlowski said.
More than Accuweather:
The new tropical threat poses a risk of flooding this weekend in Texas
Tropical Storm Helene could soon develop in the Atlantic; Caribbean urged to follow this storm
2 to 3 tropical threats may form in the Atlantic during the first part of September
