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Winter seems rainy and particularly mild for most of the country, thanks to weak El Nino brewing, US meteorologists said.
The national meteorological service announced Thursday a warmer than normal winter for three quarters north and west of the country. In Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, Montana, northern Wyoming and western North Dakota, the warmest winter temperatures are normal.
And while the Chicago area and the rest of the Great Lakes region are expected to experience higher temperatures, forecasters note that this does not mean we will not see cold spells. In other words, do not keep your jackets, scarves and winter gloves. Of course, the two competing Almanac Farmers have proposed different winter forecasts for the Chicago area, one indicating that it will be cold in the snap of teeth and the other suggesting it will be mild.
In the United States, no place should be colder than normal, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the government's Climate Prediction Center.
The Southeast, Ohio Valley and Central Atlantic can be a tough test, says Halpert
Overall, winter looks a lot like the last ones, Halpert said.
"The country as a whole has been pretty sweet since 2014-2015," said Halpert.
Judah Cohen, a winter weather expert with private firm Atmospheric and Environmental Research, uses a variety of indicators to predict the winter for the National Science Foundation. He also predicted a warm winter, mainly because of weak snowfall in Siberia.
PRECIPITATION
According to forecasters, precipitation is expected to be below average this winter, including Chicago and the suburbs, including Chicago and its suburbs.
This contrasts with the southern third of the United States and much of the east coast, which could be reduced from December to January, Halpert said. Chances are highest in southeastern Georgia and most of northern and central Florida.
Hawaii, Montana, Michigan, parts of Idaho, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are expected to be drier than normal, most likely in Hawaii, Montana and Michigan.
The central belt of the nation and part of the north, from California to New York, can cope with rainfall.
The weather forecast does not take into account the probability of snow.
EL NINO
Halpert said that the most important factor in the forecast is probably the El Nino phenomenon, the natural warming of parts of the central Pacific Ocean that influences weather conditions around the world.
The El Nino is not yet fully formed, but it is almost hot enough. Meteorologists predict that there will be a 75% chance of it being around this winter. But it will be weak, not as strong as that of El Nino which contributed to the sizzling winter of 2015-2016, said Halpert.
WARM UP BACKGROUND
Although El Nino is the most important factor in the forecasts, long-term warming caused by climate change caused by humans is also a factor, Halpert said.
"All things being equal, the slight momentum we get from the climate signal pushes things towards the warm side," said Halpert.
But it is not enough to counterbalance the other factors if they push towards the cold.
"Even on a warming planet," he said, "that does not mean that the winter is going away and that it's never cold."
The Health and Science Department of the Associated Press receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute's Department of Scientific Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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