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Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democrat leaders, pollsters, strategists and voters.
Where are things
• Rahm Emanuel predicted for polling day: "a blue wave with a red surf". This may not be what some Democrats want to hear.
Mayor Emanuel of Chicago, who helped engineer the Democrats 'takeover of the House in 2006, does not necessarily doubt Democrats' prospects next month. But with the party's participation expected to significantly exceed 2014 levels, Democrats like him are increasingly convinced that the main obstacle to mega-success is President Trump's singular ability to create his base.
Consider 2006. G.O.P. Mr. Emanuel recalled during an interview with a Republican President staggering his second term. The combination of an energetic minority party and a relatively disengaged majority has often been the surest way to overthrow a congressional house. But this time around, polls show that the intensity gap between parties has narrowed in recent weeks, even as Democrats retain a clear advantage.
Who could make a difference for Democrats? The voters "mea culpa," said Mr. Emanuel – those who did not visit in 2016 and feel remorse for the resulting Trump presidency.
• New polls confirm again that the Senate is in the running Florida and Indiana are now teams for Democratic holders. The news is more obscure in Montana, where one poll showed a tight race and another showed that Democratic Senator Jon Tester had a strong lead.
• A Monmouth University poll shows that Rep. Dana Rohrabacher's re-election campaign in California remains a real headache. Fifty percent of potential voters support Rohrabacher, a Republican, up from 45 percent in July; his Democratic opponent, Harley Rouda, is even tied. The result will probably depend on the independents, who share the two candidates.
• Doug Wardlow, Republican candidate for the Minnesota Attorney General, took a seven point lead over Democratic candidate Keith Ellison's representative, according to a new poll by Star Tribune / Minnesota Public Radio. The numbers have rocked since last month, when Mr. Ellison had a five-point lead. Mr. Ellison's campaign was hampered by claims by an ex-girlfriend that he had abused her during their relationship.
Abrams and Kemp argue
Most debates invite contrasts. Stacey Abrams, Georgia's Democratic candidate for governorship, will be the first African-American woman in the country to head a state, explicitly raising the issue of Republican Brian Kemp's electoral crackdown. to be secretary of state.
"It's creating an atmosphere of fear," she said in their debate Tuesday night.
"It's all a distraction," Kemp said.
It was striking – even in this subtle political period, Mr. Trump helped to inaugurate – to see the racial subtext of this campaign elevated to the rank of text. Kemp urged the government to criticize the fact that his office deliberately restricted access to the vote in communities of color.
Other highlights:
• Ms. Abrams has made it a point to portray herself as a reasonable and bipartisan person, even invoking Vice President Mike Pence to reinforce an argument about Medicaid's expansion.
• Mr. Kemp stated that he would not recuse himself in case of a recount in this race.
• A speaker questioned Ms. Abrams about an incident in 1992 in which she had burned the flag of the state of Georgia during a protest. (The flag of the state included the drawing of the Confederate battle flag at the time.)
"I took a peaceful protest, I said it was wrong, and ten years later, my opponent, Brian Kemp, voted in favor of removing this symbol," she said. stated, referring to Mr. Kemp's term in the Senate.
• Oh, and the debate was interrupted at some point by a studio fire alarm, for those who are interested in metaphors for … well, something.
Menendez also has a debate. Here's what to watch for.
Also:
• Ask Mr. Menendez to discuss both President Trump and Mr. Hugin.
• Mr. Hugin will likely attempt to remain heavily offensive, focusing on Mr. Menendez's recent ethics trial.
• There is a risk that the debate will break out if Mr. Hugin again raises unjustified allegations of minor prostitution against Mr. Menendez, as he did in an advertisement last week. (Mr. Menendez responded by calling him "the slimmest of the slimeballs.")
The debate, which will be broadcast and broadcast live by NJTV at 8 pm, is an important marker of the surprisingly close race. A Rutgers University poll released this weekend revealed that Menendez was leading only five percentage points among likely voters.
Gillum under fire
Ron DeSantis will have a clear line of attack against Andrew Gillum during their debate Wednesday night in the Florida governor race.
Mr. DeSantis, a Republican, seized documents suggesting that Mr. Gillum had knowingly accepted a ticket for the "Hamilton" Broadway show of men he thought were businessmen, but who were in fact F.B.I. agents pursuing a corruption investigation.
"Andrew runs to impute Trump. I do not know why. Trump did not receive a ticket to a "secret agent" F.B.I. for Hamilton. agent, "DeSantis told voters at a campaign stop in Aventura, Florida." He got his hand in the cookie jar. "
Mr Gillum called the case "side-show" in the race and said he had recovered his brother's tickets.
But the whole situation is confusing and the Republicans see an opportunity for Mr. DeSantis – who has had difficulties in the race – to get a benefit. Expect him to hammer Mr. Gillum off the charges during the televised debate at 7 pm.
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