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With new medical breakthroughs every day, you can expect the human lifespan to continue to increase over time. And according to a new study published in the Lancetthis may well be the case in the next two decades.
But the expected increase in longevity is not as optimistic as some experts predict, especially in the United States. And in some scenarios, life expectancy could actually decrease.
The analysis used data from 1990 to 2016 to generate forecasts of disease rates and life expectancy up to 2040. More specifically, the authors examined 250 causes of death, as well as 79 independent factors that play a role in health, and have predicted for 195 different countries. and territories.
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First, the good news: Globally, most of the determinants of health and wellbeing are expected to improve by 2040. On average, life expectancy in the world would increase by 4.4 years for men and 4.4 years for women.
But it was predicted that 36 of 79 health care drivers would deteriorate over time. Among these were high body mass index (BMI), air pollution, high cholesterol and some problems with food choices, such as not eating enough whole grains and fruits. Overall, the factors that contributed most to premature death were hypertension, high BMI, high blood sugar, smoking, and alcohol consumption.
According to the new study, the top three leading causes of death in 2016 – heart disease, stroke and lower respiratory tract infections – are expected to remain the same in 2040. COPD, road trauma and diarrheal diseases are expected to also remain in the top 10. However, other major causes of death – such as malaria, premature infants, HIV / AIDS and neonatal encephalopathy be replaced by chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes and lung cancer.
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The study also included models of "best" and "worst" health scenarios, based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of past change rates. In the "best" scenario, life expectancy would increase by about 7.8 years for men and 7.2 years for women. In the "worst" scenario, however, men's life expectancy would decrease by about six months and remain essentially unchanged for women.
The study predicted country by country that Spain – followed by Japan, Singapore and Switzerland – would lead the global longevity in 2040, with an average life expectancy exceeding 85 years. On the other side of the spectrum, the Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia and Zimbabwe are all expected to have a life expectancy of less than 65 years, "indicating that global disparities in survival will likely persist if current trends continue. maintain, "wrote the authors.
The United States is midway through projections to 2040 and is expected to record slower gains than those of other countries. By then, it is expected to lose 20 places in the rankings – the largest decline of any high-income country – from 43rd at 64th in law. The average life expectancy of Americans should go from 78.7 years to only 79.8 years.
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In an interview with The Guardian, author of the study, Christopher Murray, MD, professor of health metrics science at the University of Washington, said that the US had experienced a "slowing down of progress" and that "they were becoming less and less performant compared to Europe "in terms of life expectancy and overall health. He cites the impact of the opioid epidemic, as well as the rising rates of chronic heart and respiratory diseases.
This is not the first time in recent years that the United States has less good news from this department. In 2016, it was reported that life expectancy in the United States between 2014 and 2015 had declined for the first time since the AIDS crisis in the mid-1990s. The following year, the trend is repeating itself.
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