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Over the past 13 years, when Angela Merkel dominated European politics, she could always count on a national ally to maintain order on the home front: Volker Kauder.
As head of the CDU / CSU parliamentary group since 2005, he was one of Chancellor's most trusted lieutenants – until Tuesday, when deputies dismissed him unceremoniously.
It was an act of insubordination on a scale that Ms. Merkel never regarded as chancellor. Now, Berlin wonders: if such a fate could happen to Mr. Kauder, one of the biggest beasts of German politics, could others – including Mrs. Merkel herself – be in danger?
"Kauder was the first domino to fall, but there could be more," said a CDU advisor. "It could be just the beginning."
Kauder's defenestration took place when Merkel had already treated her injuries after a series of break-ups with her coalition partners, who destabilized her government, barely six months away from her mandate.
In June, they publicly discussed whether certain categories of refugees should be refused at the German-Austrian border. This month, they quarreled with the head of the German espionage, accused by the Social Democrats of minimizing the threat of the extreme right of the country. Both disputes contributed to a steady decline in the voting strength of the three government parties.
This could spell disaster for Merkel's conservative coalition in two regional elections next month in Bavaria and Hesse. If the CDU and CSU are worse than expected, the shock will be felt in Berlin.
"I can imagine that all the senior party leadership is under pressure to resign, and that includes Merkel," said the head of the CDU.
Most commentators still believe that Merkel will see what should be her last term as Chancellor. Through her spokeswoman, she said on Wednesday that she did not intend to hold a parliamentary vote of confidence, as opposition MPs are demanding.
But the growing political tensions in Berlin could make it more difficult to organize a proper succession and ensure that the next German Chancellor protects his political legacy.
"Merkel wants to have maximum influence over who will succeed him, but the window to exert this influence is weak and shrinks," said Lothar Probst, professor of political science at the University of Bremen.
The elections of the CDU / CSU leader in the Bundestag are normally tamed. Mr. Kauder himself was regularly re-elected without opposition with nearly 100% of the vote – a mark of his authority and status in the party hierarchy. The 69-year-old could be counted on to ensure that CDU / CSU MPs were following Merkel's line on all policy issues.
But in recent years, discontent with Kauder's leadership style has steadily increased. Legislators have criticized his top-down approach and unconditional loyalty to Merkel. This combined with a broader frustration about the direction of government policy: many Conservative MPs are still furious with the Chancellor's decision to let more than one million refugees in 2015-2016 and defeat 1 million CDU / CSU voters, anti-immigration alternative for Germany.
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The mood has worsened during the summer, when MPs who returned to their constituency felt all the dissatisfaction of voters with regard to Ms. Merkel and from his side. The Chancellor also gave in at the request of the SPD to remove Hans-Georg Maassen at the head of the German intelligence agency.
In addition, there were indications of Tuesday's defeat. After the Bundestag elections last September, when the CDU / CSU had its worst result since 1949, Mr Kauder was re-elected with only 77% of the vote.
But Merkel did not notice signs of discontent and backed Kauder in Tuesday's vote. "It shows how divorced she is from the grassroots and from her own parliamentary party," said the councilor.
"Kauder's electoral defeat was a clear sign that the CDU / CSU caucus wants to be more appreciated and become a real center of power," said Olav Gutting, member of the CDU. "We are tired of being seen as an appendage of the government. it only stamps everything they've presented to us.
With 124 other MPs, he voted for Ralph Brinkhaus, an accountant and tax policy expert who had been one of Kauder's assistants. Nobody expected the 50-year-old to beat Kauder, a man who, along with Merkel, was one of the most successful and enduring partnerships in German post-war politics. war. Mr Brinkhaus was elected to Parliament only nine years ago and has no major support network, either in his own region of North Rhine-Westphalia or in the Bundestag.
But his promise to make MPs have more say – and the caucus becomes more assertive and confident – has been widely heard. "We need a fresh start," said Mr. Gutting. "We have to chart our own course."
