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In summary, it is the "security relationship" against human rights; money against due process.
The 31-year-old doctoral student was arrested in May while preparing to return home. According to his superior, he had conducted research on civil-military relations in the UAE.
The response from the United Kingdom has been swift. Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said he was shocked by the "unacceptable" verdict, which "was not what we expect from a friend and a trusted partner. ".
The quiet diplomacy of the United Kingdom (and, for the Hedges family, inadequate) had failed. Hedges' wife, Daniela Tejada, told the BBC that the British government was "trampling on eggs instead of taking a firm stance".
Essentially, the definition of security threats issued by the UAE (a definition bordering on paranoia for its detractors) had violated Western notions of freedom of expression and respect for legality. As Tejada says, "They say the UAE is an ally, but the extremely arbitrary treatment of Matt's case indicates a totally different reality."
His family said that Hedges had been interrogated without a lawyer and forced to sign a statement of confession in Arabic that he did not understand. The Gulf Studies Center of Exeter University tweeted: "This is an alarming day for human rights and academia." And the Times thundered: "Diplomacy is hard enough when adversaries act bellicose and arbitrary.It's even harder when friends start doing the same."
The UAE authorities seem to recognize that they have a problem. Attorney General Hamad Al Shamsi was quick to point out that Hedges could appeal the decision to the Supreme Court. Some analysts expect a quick process followed by deportation.
In addition, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is still trying to come out of the dark shadow of the Khashoggi massacre, while speculation revolves around the question of whether he was aware of the plot.
However, it is a two-way street. The West needs Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as a stable counterweight to Iran and still needs their fossil fuels. He wants their investment and their arms purchases.
President Trump acknowledged it in a remarkable statement of realpolitik this week. National security asked the United States to protect its relations with Saudi Arabia, he said, no matter who was responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
"It could very well be that the crown prince was aware of this tragic event – maybe he did it and maybe he did not!" " Trump said. But the Saudis "reacted very well to my request to keep oil prices at reasonable levels" and hundreds of thousands of jobs depended on Saudi investments.
Similarly, if it is a minor key, the United Kingdom has a close relationship with the United Arab Emirates. Their armed forces conducted joint exercises last year. More than 120,000 British citizens live and work in the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is a lucrative export market for the United Kingdom. The United Arab Emirates' investments in Britain are substantial, with the drop in the pound related to the Brexit effect attracting buyers of real estate in the Gulf.
Western governments have realized that any interference with the scale and pace of reform in the Kingdom is considered unacceptable. The message was heard loud and clear; the European Union preferred a private dialogue on the issue.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are both very "descendants" in their power structures; there is no room for dissent. Mohammed bin Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, of Abu Dhabi, do not tolerate any questioning of their authority, whether it comes from Muslim Islamist Brotherhoods or more liberal tendencies. Power is concentrated in a few hands and ambitious economic reforms go hand in hand with the repression of diverging views. Liability is not part of the transaction.
Relations between the major Western countries and their Arab allies will continue to be a difficult equation: fundamental interests will often be tested by fundamental differences. And Western governments will trace their red lines to different places.
Germany and Denmark stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia as a result of the Khashoggi affair and the Yemen campaign. The United Kingdom insists that its influence in Riyadh is all the greater as it is a major arms supplier. Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said in the House of Commons this week that suspending arms deliveries would mean that "British influence – far from being able to bring the two sides together – would be reduced to zero" .
But realpolitik can come back to haunt you.
In 1985, American commentator Charles Krauthammer rejoiced in the Washington Post that the United States "can play a game of Realpolitik as cool as anyone".
"And who can blame us?" he continued. "We have to take our allies where we find them."
He complimented the constructive engagement of the Reagan administration with Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
