[ad_1]
It took only a week for the NFL sportsbook market to correct itself. Having awarded the Patriots the equivalent of only four better than the Dolphins on neutral ground, the odds now show that AFC's permanent power returns to the top of the hierarchy before Thursday's match against the Colts.
Midweek betting habits suggest that the Patriots will start as favorites at 10 or 10¹ / ₂ points. As Indy and Miami have comparable prices this season, we can call it a 3 to 3.5 point adjustment from the rout of the Dolphins Patriots 38-7 (449-172 in total yards, 6.0 to 3, 8 in yards per game). .
Here is the estimate this week of the rated market power evaluated by VSiN. Jonathan Von Tobel and I make a good faith effort to capture a moving target throughout the season.
Estimated "market power" rating
|
If you are not with us last week, we will award three points for the field advantage, then we will create a verse in each match based on the points distribution. With the Patriots currently -10 at most in most American and World sports betting, we have to place them as well as the Colts at seven points of the ladder. We went with 85 and 78 most logical points.
The Jets and Giants are among the last five players in the league this week. It's a real challenge to grasp the way the market sees disappointing 1 to 3 starts for both.
The Jets are -1 at home against the Broncos, which would mean two points less on neutral ground than a team overvalued so far. Giants are +7 to Carolina, which means four points less than the Panthers.
Jacksonville was a challenge for us this week. The Jaguars were only -7¹ / ₂ compared to the Jets last Sunday, which means five points better on a matchday. They are currently +3 in Kansas City, a virtual neutral ground equity with a newcomer getting serious respect for futures prices. We went with 85 for both.
We will try to update these ratings for you periodically as the market adjusts for competitors. The NFL's efforts to put the league powers on the stage on Thursday night have allowed us to dive into this approach on the last two Thursdays. We strongly encourage each of you to create your own market estimates based on point spreads in development throughout the season, then your own set of numbers based on the quality you assign to the teams.
To beat the market, it is useful to see the market.
Source link
