The Mexican election could speed up the Nafta negotiations

Efforts to reform the compact have failed in recent weeks, as many observers and participants have expressed concern that Mexico's move to a left-wing nationalist government could complicate the negotiations

. In fact, the election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador could instead pave the way for at least some progress in the negotiations, according to trade negotiators and other observers. While US companies are concerned about Mr López Obrador, Trump's administration's approach towards Nafta appears to be consistent with at least some of Mr López Obrador's economic priorities

A great example: López Obrador said his administration would be more receptive to pressure from Washington to raise labor standards in Mexico – a key goal of President Donald Trump and Democratic legislators in Washington – that the government of the outgoing president

Enrique Pena Nieto,

According to a US Congressional Assistant on the Talks,

With the Mexican elections over, "we expect the NAFTA negotiations to enter an intensive phase," said Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Chrystia Freeland

last week before the elections. Mexican leaders made similar predictions last week.

President Trump said that he wanted to wait for the Mexico City elections to continue the Nafta talks and threaten to impose tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico and Canada if an agreement does not exist. was not concluded. "If they're not doing well, I'm going to tax their cars in America," he said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday.

Discussions should focus again on a series of contentious issues with important issues for the three members: the United States, Mexico and Canada. President Trump, who repeatedly threatened to pull the United States out of the deal, attacked the Canadian prime minister last month

Justin Trudeau

After the G7 meeting in Quebec, there have been few signs of thaw since.

The battle adds to concerns over the Trump administration 's imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on its northern and southern neighbors. Canada imposed Sunday retaliatory rights on steel, aluminum and dozens of US products, following similar Mexican retaliation earlier this month. Some of the planned tariffs in Canada target legislators in politically sensitive US states.

Now, the Trump administration is threatening to apply tariffs on imports of all automobiles and auto parts that, if imposed on NAFTA countries, would undermine the heart of the country. # 39; agreement. . Trump tried to use the threat of auto tariffs to obtain concessions from Mexico and Canada, a strategy that did not go well with Washington's two partners

. López Obrador, frequently referred to by his initials as AMLO, has brought a nationalist message that could come into conflict with Mr. Trump's "America first" policy. "All these" hand-held "tariffs – whether the threat of auto tariffs or the imposition of car rates – could be enough to make Mexico disappear under AMLO," said Monica de Bolle, researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

In addition, Lopez Obrador's leftist position may make him more resistant to US efforts to use the Nafta to maintain competition in the country's energy and telecommunications industries, the aide said. . Another topic of division – the US proposal to adopt a sunset clause to cast the agreement if countries do not re-authorize it regularly – has generated strong resistance from Canada.

Yet the key economic and commercial advisers of Mr. López Obrador support the position taken by the outgoing government of Mexico, and they promised continuity and willingness to reach agreement on sensitive issues, such as efforts to weaken or abolish the international arbitration groups that currently regulate trade disputes. , closeness, friendship, economy, trade, migration and culture, we are obliged to understand each other and walk together, "said López Obrador in his closing speech of the campaign Wednesday, adding that he plans to pursue a "comprehensive treaty" in the United States and Canada that will foster development

Officials urged Canada and Mexico to reach an agreement this spring, before the Mexican elections and before the deadline of mid-2006. May to guarantee a vote in the US Congress this year.Now, any future Nafta agreement would go to a different group of lawmakers in 2019 at the earliest, and officials have warned that new congressional leaders could demand changes to any rewriting of the treaty.

Mexico will have a long transition period, as the elected president will not take office until December 1, but Current commercial negotiators will seek to involve a member of Mr. López Obrador's team as soon as he will be officially declared president-elect Under Nafta, US manufacturers produced cars and parts in Mexico, where wages are lower, but Trump's administration wants Mexican factories to pay more for the workforce or send auto jobs to the United States. or Canada.

Robert Lighthizer,

the US trade representative and chief negotiator for the administration, has sought to rework Nafta to require that 40% of the content of any car that treats duty-free in the North American block come from workers who earn above $ 39, a particular wage level, according to industry officials familiar with trade negotiations.

The United States discussed earlier this year a pay floor of about $ 16 at the hour, officials said. In comparison, Mexican vehicle assembly workers earned on average less than $ 8 per hour in 2017, while those in the spare parts factories earned less than $ 4 per hour, according to the Center for Automotive Research.

Cars that do not have at least 40% of their content produced with a labor force equal to or greater than the floor wage would not be eligible for duty-free trade and would be subject to customs duties at the border, according to the proposal. For pickup trucks, a higher amount – 45% of the vehicle – should come from a workforce that pays well, officials said.

– Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael in Ottawa and Robbie Whelan contributed to this article. [19659003] Write to William Mauldin at [email protected] and Santiago Pérez at [email protected]