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The GOES East satellite image provided by NOAA shows Hurricane Willa in the eastern Pacific on the trajectory of the Mexican Pacific coast on 22 October. (NOAA via AP)
The Atlantic has had a bad hurricane season thanks to Florence and Michael, but the situation could be worse. The eastern Pacific Ocean, whose storms have affected the west coast of Mexico and Hawaii, has recorded its most active season ever. And we still have more than a month in the "official" window of the hurricane season in the eastern Pacific.
Already having three category 5 hurricanes east of the international rendezvous line, the Pacific has been throwing furious storms since the start of the season, shortly after May 15th. Aletta's formed on June 6th. Bud quickly started three days later. In a short time, a seemingly incessant barrage of storms erupted, dodging much of the land, with the exception of some coastal shores of Mexico and Hawaii.
In summary, this season is the most energetic of all records. Meteorologists assess the activity of the hurricane season based on a metric calculation, the accumulated energy of the cyclone, which measures the intensity and duration of all the storms that form. Climatologists look back on ACE throughout the season to see how it compares to those of the past.
The average ACE since the beginning of the year for this time of year is 125.7 units. Until October 23, the storms had turned a combined 311 units. It's more than two and a half times the usual expectations. Even more amazing is the fact that no other season in recorded history has exceeded the 295 units achieved in 1992. The year 2015 came in third place, with 287 units ACE. Five weeks into the end, we are really in unknown territory.
The season was marked by many highlights, including the distinction of being the only third season in eastern pacific with three categories 5. Just Monday afternoon, Willa is metastasized into a beast at 160 mph.
Willa became the tenth major hurricane, category 3 or higher, to form in the eastern Pacific this year. So far, 2018 is tied with 1992 for the second largest recorded hurricanes in this region.
While Willa represents a danger for Mexico, the other two categories – Lane and Walaka – spent most of their destructive energy when they turned off. Walaka danced the Cat-5 tango with a typhoon of equal strength on 2 October. Seven other storms have reached Category 4 status.
Three storms hit Hawaii directly. In August, Hector passed south of the Big Island, cutting the archipelago in gales, light winds and strong waves. Then, two weeks later, Lane dropped 50 centimeters of rain and set another record of tropical cyclone rain across the state. However, a third system – Olivia – caused flooding in mid-September, which was the first year of record when a trio of storms destroyed the Aloha State. Research suggests that Hawaii will find itself in the crosshairs of more storms in the future, thanks to climate change.
This is not the only group of storms to roam in strange places. The remains of Rosa and Sergio passed over the Southwest Desert – the former tropical quasi- tropical force. Rosa flooded Arizona under widespread rain from three to five inches, causing mudslides and flooded roads.
The dramatic increase in the storm is particularly surprising given the lack of an El Niño model. During an El Niño, equatorial winds a little to the west accumulate warm waters over the eastern Pacific development region, often feeding the growth of storms.
"While it is generally acknowledged that El Niño is increasing hurricane activity in the northeastern Pacific, it does not take a complete El Niño event to lead to a memorable season," he said. wrote Phil Klotzbach, hurricane researcher at Colorado State. University, in an email. "Neither this year nor 1992 has satisfied the official threshold criteria of the NOAA El Niño, but were still the most active regions of the Northeast Pacific measured by the ACE."
Klotzbach reports an abnormally warm sea surface temperature – about 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal – as well as a reduction in wind shear through the hotspot of the Pacific hurricane. This means that the winds blow less and storms develop, which facilitates their formation.
Temperature difference to the surface of the sea compared to normal in the east of the tropical Pacific Ocean. (Phil Klotzbach)
Similar conditions in the Atlantic have contributed to our hellish hurricane season last year. September 2017 has turned out to be the most vigorous month of recorded history for the Atlantic.
And the water temperatures will continue to warm up. The scientific consensus is that this will promote stronger storms in the coming years.
But the slight increase in strength is not the only fingerprint of climate change. It seems today that many storms are surprising forecasters by intensifying rapidly. This means that their winds increase at least 35 mph (30 knots) in 24 hours.
Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, said that of the 12 Eastern Pacific hurricanes this season, 83% have rapidly intensified at some point (compared to the historical average of 79%). McNoldy said at the end of August that the maximum winds of Hurricane Norman had risen 70 mph in 24 hours, the most dramatic change from any storm in the eastern Pacific in 2018.
As the oceans warm, other storms will likely.
Willa, the last hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, has gone from a low-level tropical storm to a category 5 in less than 48 hours. Since then, he has weakened some of them in category 3, but is currently on an accelerated course on the west coast of Mexico.
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