[ad_1]
Six weeks after the appearance of African swine fever in China, scientists are trying to determine how the deadly swine virus has entered the world's largest pork market and spread between distant farms of several hundreds of kilometers.
The search for answers is essential to stop the international spread of what Russian researchers consider to be the most dangerous swine disease. The virus has been reported in seven Chinese provinces since August 1, killing an estimated 40,000 hogs and threatening to severely disrupt a $ 128 billion industry. It has also expanded its grip on Europe, with the first cases in Belgium reported on 13 September.
Without vaccine to protect animals, the researchers say the deadly virus – which can survive for more than a year in dried ham – is likely to spread rapidly among the 433 million Chinese pigs and possibly reach the United States.
"What we see so far is only the tip of the iceberg," said Juan Lubroth, chief veterinarian at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. and agriculture in Rome after a three-day meeting in Bangkok. The emergence of the disease in other countries "will almost certainly occur," he said.
Researchers from the Changchun Academy of Military Medical Sciences said that the hog pathogen on local farms was a very virulent strain that appeared in the former Soviet republic of Georgia in 2007 and afterwards. dispersed in Russia and Estonia.
This led them to speculate that the disease, which does not harm humans, could have been introduced by the live swine trade with Russia and the European Union, or by importing and Illegal disposal of products containing pork.
About 800,000 pigs were destroyed in Russia as part of measures to control more than 1,000 separate households. Subsequently, small- and large-scale pig production fell by almost half, researchers in the Russian Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology said in April.
In 2011, when about 12,000 pigs were destroyed, the authorities estimated that the disease could cause up to $ 267 million in direct losses.
"The fight against the disease is not a public health problem, but a problem of animal and economic health," said the Belgian Federal Agency for Food Safety, announcing the discovery of boars on September 13th. infected in a southern province. "In recent months, the disease has spread faster and further into the west, affecting countries that were unscathed."
In a March report announcing the threat of African swine fever in China, FAO concluded that the disease would have "devastating consequences" for animal health and food safety. From there, it could spread in Asia, including on the Korean peninsula.
Angus Gidley-Baird, an analyst at Rabobank Australia, Angus Gidley-Baird, Senior Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank Australia, says the epidemics in China mean that the country, which consumes more than half of the world's pork, may have to increase its imports of pork and possibly beef.
Pork meat could account for nearly 3% of the consumer price index in China, a key measure of inflation. An index of national pork prices has risen 6.4% since authorities reported the outbreak on August 3rd. The shares of WH Group Ltd., the largest pork producer in the world, listed in Hong Kong, declined by 15% at the same time.
"We still do not know how the virus has arrived in China, and it will be very difficult to say exactly how that happened," said Wantanee Kalpravidh, regional director of the Animal Disease Emergency Center. Bangkok.
Contraband of pigs from Russia could not be ruled out, the UN agency said in March. Pork meat was estimated in 2015 at 15% cheaper in Russia than in China, which constitutes an economic incentive for cross-border pig movements.
Understanding the road will help authorities prevent new introductions, said Dirk Pfeiffer, professor of veterinary medicine and life sciences at the City University of Hong Kong. The construction of thousands of kilometers of roads and railways in North Asia as part of the Chinese Government's "belt and road" economic initiative increases the risk of transmitting exotic diseases, he said. .
"We have always said that we are aware of the diseases that could result," said Pfeiffer. "It's economic development, but it could increase the ability of diseases to spread from one country to another."
The virus does not need pork to spread. Andrzej Jarynowski, an epidemiologist in computer science at the Interdisciplinary Research Institute in Wroclaw, Poland, studied epidemic patterns in Eastern Europe. Pig excrement carrying viruses can be infectious for a week or more, according to studies.
"It seems like she's stretched so much that she can not stop it," said Jarynowski.
Scientists have discovered that the virus can survive for one month in pepperoni and salami, for 140 days in Iberian pork products and for 399 days in Parma hams. This means that pigs can become infected if they eat contaminated food leftovers.
It is probably as well as the disease settled on a farm in the Russian region of Irkutsk, near the border with Mongolia, last year and in Georgia, ten years older. early. Scientists at Luoyang National Research Center for Veterinary Medicine wrote in a September 8 research article that leftovers are often given to pigs on small farms in China.
Countries that host a large number of international travelers carrying clandestine food parcels are also vulnerable. Some 8,000 pork products are confiscated each year by US Customs and Border Protection officials, researchers reported last month.
US pork producers could suffer up to $ 8 billion in losses from African swine fever in the first year of an outbreak, said Dermot Hayes, leader of the Center for China-U.S. Agricultural Economics at the State University of Iowa.
On September 14, outbreaks of swine fever in Inner Mongolia appeared. Now that African swine fever has settled, the virus could spread quickly thanks to the illegal sale of moribund pigs by farmers. according to scientists at Changchun Institute of Veterinary Medicine.
It is common for pigs to travel long distances in China because of the disparity in pork prices in different provinces, said scientists at the National Center for Research in Veterinary Medicine. This could explain how she has reached places like Lianyungang and Yueqing, more than 860 kilometers away from each other.
– With the help of Hannah Dormido from Bloomberg.
Source link
