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SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil markets have opened strongly on Tuesday as Brent crude remains close to a four-year period reached in the previous session.
PHOTO: A worker walks on the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, May 9, 2018. REUTERS / Essam al-Sudani
Oil markets have been pushed by the imminent US sanctions against Iran and by the reluctance or inability of the cartel of predominantly Middle East producers of OPEC and Russia to increase their production .
Brent LCoC1 futures prices were $ 81.39 per barrel at 0042 GMT, up 19 cents or 0.2% from their last close. It was not far from the high of November 2014 at 81.48 dollars a barrel reached the day before.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were $ 72.22 a barrel, up 14 cents or 0.2 percent from their latest settlement.
The United States, starting in November, will target Iranian oil exports with sanctions, and Washington is pressuring governments and businesses around the world to align and reduce their purchases in Tehran.
"It is clear that the impact of upcoming US sanctions on Iranian oil exports will be deeper than expected," said Peter Kiernan, senior energy analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit of the United States. Singapore.
US President Donald Trump has demanded that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Iran is a member, and Russia increase supplies to offset the expected fall in Iranian exports.
However, OPEC and Russia have so far rejected these calls.
"We are expecting an upward trend in oil in the coming weeks … because OPEC essentially ignored President Trump's call to increase production to drive down prices," said Ashley Kelty, an analyst.
"We do not believe that OPEC can significantly increase production in the short term because the physical reserve capacity of the system is not very high," said Kelty.
"We can see oil prices rise – maybe up to $ 90, but do not expect to see $ 100 in the near future," he added.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch announced it has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2019 from $ 75 per barrel to $ 80 per barrel, while its WTI crude oil forecast has increased $ 2 to $ 71 per barrel in 2019.
The US bank said that "the Iranian factor could dominate the market in the short term and cause a spike (in the price of crude oil)," adding that "emerging market demand concerns could reappear later. ".
Indian refiners, who are facing high commodity prices and a sluggish rupee, are planning to cut their oil imports, which could be the first sign that high prices are starting to weigh on demand.
Report by Henning Gloystein; edited by Richard Pullin
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