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A new CNN poll contains an important data point that should be very good news for President Trump and the Republican Party. Under their leadership, the American economy thrives. Americans recognize progress and are increasingly inclined to credit the GOP for this. In the new survey, 69% of respondents believe that our economic state is good, a figure that has remained relatively stable in recent months. The share of the "very good" economy has grown over time and is holding steady. at 26%, up 4 points from June and the highest since June 2000, "according to the network report. And yet, President Trump's popularity rating and personal favorability across many indices have fallen relative in recent weeks:
President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped 6 points last month and is at a new low among political independents, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Overall, only 36% approve of how the president manages his work, up from 42% in August. Among the self-employed, the decline was more pronounced, rising from 47% last month to 31% now.… Only 32% say that they regard the president as honest and trustworthy, the worst in CNN polls. About one third, or 32%, is proud to be president, down 6 points since March and the lowest since taking office. Only 36% say "worry about people like you", another new weak point. Only 30% of respondents say they will unite the country and not divide it, which corresponds to its previous minimum of November 2017. Four in ten believe that the President can bring the kind of change that the country needs. November 2017 low … As on the president's approval note, The changes in favorability rating and attributes of Trump are largely due to the movement of freelancers.
These bold sentences are the ominous bits of the GOP. Republican voters, by and large, strongly support the president; conversely, Democrats are overwhelmingly opposed to it. Changes among supporters can be important, as can differences in intensity and enthusiasm, which can reveal disparities in participation. But what could turn a modest blue wave into a major wave, is if the independents decide to abandon the president's party en masse. And before you cry, "false CNN news!" consider that we are see a pattern through several national surveys:
Now * four * polls of the last two weeks securing Trump approval in the upper thirties – WaPo / ABC, Kaiser Family Foundation, Quinnipiac and CNN / SSRS https://t.co/kkQ1frLss4
– David Wright (@DavidWright_CNN) September 10, 2018
The Trump approval is at 41-53 in our first six completed surveys, or about 3,000 interviews.
The districts voted for Trump by 5 points, with 49% of the votes. So, his approval rating is about 8 points behind his 2016 voting share, which one could roughly extrapolate to 38% nationally– Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 10, 2018
I count … Eight … Count eight live surveys completed in the last two weeks … Everyone has had Trump's approval since the last poll.
– (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 10, 2018
the RealClearPolitics The average now shows that Trump's work rating dropped to its lowest score in the last six months. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what triggered this slowdown, but given that the president's numbers seemed pretty stable after the developments of Cohen and Manafort, it's not unreasonable to conclude that Trump's controversial response to the death of John McCain by the book of Bob Woodward and an anonymous subject much discussed New York Times op / ed, are factors. The bad news for the Republicans in all this is obvious. The good news is that even though the mid-term elections are getting closer and closer, there are still enough cycles to reverse this apparent trend. It is somewhat extraordinary that the economy is in good shape, while the party in office is experiencing such problems. An interesting piece of electoral wisdom that I've heard recently is from Steve Hilton, a longtime advisor in British politics. He said most voters would not vote in gratitude, even in good times. a party that presides over prosperity must therefore make a striking contrast between existing successes and impending failures if the other party takes control.
The GOP must take this lesson into account, highlighting not only all the extremely positive economic indicators, but warning that the Democrats would seek to remove tax cuts to create jobs and help households, to reimpose the new tax increases. to pay for a disastrously expensive and disruptive health care plan, which they will define as a "solution" to the health care cost crisis, have exacerbated their last failed experience. But yes, part of the strategy Is demanding achievements on the roofs, in the hope that it overcomes the din of other dramas and controversies. Here is an example, which shows once again significant progress in wages – one of the measures taken by advocates in recent months:
According to Sentier Research, an economic research firm founded by former Census Bureau officials, the median household income in July 2017 was $ 60,879. In 2017, a married couple without children with a common income of $ 60,879 would have been entitled to a lump-sum deduction of $ 12,700 plus personal exemptions of $ 8,100, which would have resulted in a taxable income of $ 40,079. Their tax rate would have been 15%, for a federal income tax of $ 5,079. After paying social security contributions of $ 4,657, this couple reportedly earned $ 51,143. This year, assuming a 3% increase in weekly BLS earnings, the couple's income would rise to $ 62,705. As a result of the tax cuts, their standard deduction would increase to $ 24,000 for taxable income of $ 37,705. Their federal tax rate would be 12%, for a profit tax of $ 4,264. Their social charges would increase with their income to 4 797 dollars. All told, the couple would bring home $ 53,644. This is a net salary increase of $ 2,501, or 4.9%.
This improvement in net wages is in addition to the larger earnings gains we reported on Friday as a result of the strong August jobs report. I leave you with a new GOP advertisement featuring a record of the Senate Democrats' Tennessee Senate tax increases:
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