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When a state is facing a security situation that has been deteriorating for nearly 28 years, there are enough elements to consider in terms of priority to learn from. Those who do it and then take calculated risks come out better. However, those who examine situations in isolation, ignoring many past instances, tend to err. It will be recalled that when the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir in 1996, preceded by the Lok Sabha polls, took place only seven years after the beginning of the turbulence in Kashmir. The spread in the Jammu region was not over yet.
One of the most daring decisions has been to hold these elections despite international condemnation – an action against India for human rights violations, following a virulent campaign by Pakistan. An overall participation rate of 53% in the state was therefore not a bad success. Elections to the Assembly were perceived as "bread and butter" elections where other considerations such as autonomy or Azadi were hardly probing questions. In terms of security, the year 1996 was the time when violence was reduced to nothing, and the Pakistani terrorists had not made their mark at the latest.
A polling station abandoned in elections for urban urban bodies, in Srinagar. PTI
The reintroduction of democracy and the establishment of an elected government marked a positive turning point. Basically, doctrinal changes took place with a much greater humanization of the internal conflict situation and the introduction of an increased power of influence. Given this success, there could have been a gradual improvement in the population, which was not fully convinced that they could go alone or with Pakistan; the very idea of Kashmir Banega Pakistan's or & # 39;Hum kya chahte? Azadi! & # 39; This is why "polls" were not yet unpopular.
The problem is different: Pakistan, feeling that the terrain is evolving, has reinforced the horde and infiltrated hordes of FT Pakistani, also took part in the battle in the Jammu region. The situation that was under control between 1996 and 1999 turned sour in 1999 with Kargil, leading to the worst year: in 2001, nearly 2,100 terrorists were killed (the highest point on the graph of terrorist murders). It is good to keep this part of the story in mind given the dynamic situation in Jammu and Kashmir from time to time.
Analyzing and commenting on the current state of security situation in the state requires a quick review of polls that have just been completed for municipal state bodies. The first part of it ended a few days ago and the results were announced on Saturday. However, interest had clearly diminished when the two main parties in the region, the National Conference and the People's Democratic Party, withdrew from the fray. A 4.2% vote in the valley reduced the overall voting rate to 35.1%. The extremely low participation rate was very different from the 45% recorded in the 2005 municipal polls, which estimated that a region as volatile as Handwara's was over 80%.
The Vice President of the National Conference, Omar Abdullah, recently said: "(B) held elections without seeking to overcome anger in the streets and added that by thinking that an election without a Conference national and PDP would make no sense, all that the central government has been able to achieve is the least credible election in the state ". To what extent is this true and to what extent did a misreading of the situation lead to Omar's belief that he is still unknown?
It is clear that the element of risk in the decision to conduct local elections in 2018 was extremely high. However, it was not higher than in 1996, when the attempt to establish democracy was attempted for the first time since militancy struck the state. What is different in 2018 is that there is a generational change. We just have to accept that the 2018 disposition is of a much higher order. In 1996, citizens were convinced of the need to wage the battle against the rest of India, but sincerely believed that this battle was isolated from the existential problems that needed to be solved politically.
In other words, there was still a belief in India.
This belief existed in 2005, when the percentages were still high in the polls, and in 2011, when the percentages were even higher in surveys of rural organizations. Our collective failure was the inability to use these trends and pass them on to the next generation. After all the post-1996 elections, there was still hope among the people; In a way, this hope has been destroyed, but not inextricably. Despite the much weaker force of the terrorist clashes, these are reported more virally through social media and soft power efforts, even though the present still gets a back seat. The media channels of Delhi are of no use because it is the area of information that dominates and influences. Pakistan's Inter-Service Public Relations (ISPR) rubs its hands with glee, even as they sit and watch many Indian media do the work for it. Indian media must realize that subtlety is the name of the winning game and not the clearance sale.
As the voter turnout rate is so low, we can not expect anything better in the years to come. panchayat surveys in rural areas. Even once the new compound panachayats are in place, it will depend on how they are empowered to perform. Pakistan is not going to sit idle, as recent events at the LoC and in the hinterland show. The governor's administration must do some things this winter to make an impact and, hopefully, bring about change.
CN Vice President Omar Abdullah has strongly criticized J & K PTI's local polls.
First, it must aim to bring a relatively high level of administrative comfort to the population in terms of winter management. Second, ask representatives of the three regions to meet more often in winter; they could be representatives of education, law, business, women's groups, panchayats and municipal bodies, directors or others; it should only be frequent "meeting spirit" events. Third, a hard effort to counsel young people to self-assess and learn about job opportunities. Fourth, an introduction to moderate line religious discourse through visual aids and short videos to generate ideas about the tolerant past of Kashmir. Fifth, empower local organizations and energize them with financial allocations. The goals achievable every six months and every year for each of these bodies should be defined in such a way as to show how local self-government makes the difference. Sixth, it is very important to continue to work towards stabilizing the security environment through better management of unified command.
What we absolutely should not do is ignore the National Conference and the PDP, the two main regional parties. The governor's administration must continue to consult them because these are assets that only the poorly informed of the rest of India will not recognize. Polling stations of local bodies may have been able to do without proclaimed proxies as independents, but this can not be extended to general election or assembly polls. . Omar is not wrong at least on one point: the elections must enjoy local credibility, at least to some extent.
Pakistan felt that it may have gone wrong in 1996 and corrected its trajectory. This opportunity should no longer be presented in 2018-19.
The author is a lieutenant-general and former retired general officer, commander of the 15 and 21 Corps
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