The race to control the Senate in 2020 has already begun



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"The map looks good for Democrats – I'll tell you," Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the new chair of the Democratic Senators Campaign Committee, told CNN.

Democrats will have the opportunity to change seats and possibly win the majority in 2020. However, the party could face tough races against Republican elected officials in purple states like Maine and Colorado. Democrats will also have to defend the most vulnerable seat currently on the map in the state of Alabama from a deep red.

Jones hopes that his campaign book on health care, tariffs and his vote against Judge Brett Kavanaugh will keep him in his place.

Republicans are confident in the possibility of going back, presuming that they have introduced a significantly stronger candidate than Jones' last opponent, Roy Moore, who lost a point and a half despite the aggression charges. sexual, what he denied. Even before the end of the 2018 sessions, the Republican Party of Alabama counted the days on its website until Jones was no longer "defeated" in the 2020 contest.
A question that weighs on the race is whether Jeff Sessions, who previously held the seat in the Senate, decides to run after the dismissal of President Donald Trump as Attorney General. If Sessions shows signs of entry into the race, it would change the political calculation for the other Republicans considering an offer.

Until now, at least one potential GOP challenger is publicly considering the possibility of a race against Jones: Rep. Bradley Byrne of Alabama.

Seth Morrow, a spokesman for the congressman, told CNN that Byrne had "clearly expressed his interest in the race," but was not expecting to make a final decision "until next spring at the earliest ".

Some in the state seem to think that Byrne's thinking is already done. "He is running," Jonathan Gray, a Republican strategist from Alabama, said in an interview. "Bradley has announced, not publicly, but the conversations are ongoing."

Supporters urged Rep. Mo Brooks to run for the Senate after attending the 2017 Republican primaries, but the Congressman told Byrne that it was "unlikely" that he will run in 2020 said an Alabama Republican close to Congressman Brooks CNN.

When asked when he was going to run again, Brooks told CNN: "Bradley Byrne seems to run – talk to him."

Democrats are looking for vans

With so many seats to defend, Republicans could defeat Jones while losing the Senate. But it would be hard work for the Democrats, who would then need to win even more seats to win the majority, perhaps by winning the open seat left by the outgoing Arizona senator, Jon Kyl, or in beating senators such as Thom Tillis of North Carolina. , Cory Gardner of Colorado and Susan Collins of Maine.

For the moment, they are fighting to seize this opportunity. In North Carolina, "the name that people speak most" is Senator Jeff Jackson, according to Gary Pearce, long-time strategist in the state, who added that others, including a woman or a person of color, could also emerge.

In Arizona, Grant Woods, former Attorney General and former Chief of Staff to the late Senator John McCain, former astronaut Mark Kelly, husband of ex-Representative Gabby Giffords, Inspector Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton , former mayor of Phoenix elected to the House in mid-term in 2018, are on the list of potential candidates mentioned by democratic strategists.

In Colorado, Crisanta Duran, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the House of Representatives of the State and Mike Johnston, a former senator who attended the Democratic Governor's primary in 2018, both told CNN they were planning to go to the Senate in 2020.

"A lot of people have contacted me to ask me if I could consider running," Johnston said. "There has been a sharp increase in phone calls and text messages since the night of the elections."

A crowdfunding campaign draws attention to Maine

In Maine, the Democrats hope to kill Collins, who will be the only Republican in the delegation of the Congress of New England, composed of 33 people, at the next Congress. Last year, she infuriated the Liberals and Conservatives with her votes to send Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and prevent the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

Following the Kavanaugh vote, a crowdfunding campaign raised nearly $ 4 million to support a future Collins challenger.

"I think this has piqued the interest of many people," said Toby McGrath, a Maine political strategist who led Barack Obama's two presidential campaigns in that state, about crowdfunding efforts. "I think a lot of people will think about running."

Even state democrats privately acknowledge that Collins will not be easy to defeat. The Maine Republican has already won the Senate elections four times and has often won large victories. Jared Golden, a Democrat who has just overthrown a Republican seat in rural Maine, claimed in his commercials that he was working as a Collins aide.

"Overall, his votes clearly reflect what his riding is looking for," said Lance Dutson, a strategist who has worked on previous Collins campaigns. "And when it comes to making these calls difficult at 50/50, I think she's doing what she thinks is right and she's going on next."

But if Collins decides to represent herself, she will probably be faced with a difficult environment with a national interest in her race.

A number of names have been proposed to Collins as Democratic challengers.

According to spokeswoman Mary-Erin Casale, Sara Gideon, Democratic Chair of the Maine House of Representatives, is seriously considering getting started.

Representative Chellie Pingree, who failed to challenge Collins in a 2002 Senate race, and Susan Rice, National Security Advisor in the Obama administration, also discussed the role potential challengers. she tweeted "me" last month in response to a tweet asking who would run for the seat of the Senate. Rice later said that she "was not making any announcement", but that she has continued to weigh on Twitter with comments on Collins.

Other senators to watch

Even though they probably would not change the Senate's control, there are a number of senators whose loss would change the makeup of the chamber. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, nominated for the first time, plans to run for governorship.

"I think Governor (John Bel) Edwards is taking our state in the wrong direction, and I'm basing myself on the in-depth polls that I've done and that I've seen that it's not going to happen. There were only two people who could beat him: one is Scalise and one is me, "Kennedy told CNN, referring to the House Republican Whip, Steve Scalise, who rejected any interest in running for the governorship.

"I did not make a decision," said Kennedy. "I liked being in the Senate."

There are also rumors of retirements around some members who have been plying the halls of the Capitol for decades.

The Cook Political Report notes that seven Republicans will be 70 or older at the time of the 2020 elections: Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, Wyoming Senator Michael Enzi, Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell, Senator James Risch of Idaho , Sen Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas and Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma.

Unlike McConnell, who has already offered to run again, two of the oldest senators – Roberts and Inhofe – have not indicated whether they would choose another six-year term.

"The first thing to do" for Roberts is "to finish the farming bill" which is "crucial for our (agricultural) economy," spokeswoman Sarah Little said. With the ink of the 2018 election cycle barely dry, Senator Roberts would like to give the Kansans a break before the election campaign begins again. "

Yet at least one member of Congress would consider reporting if Roberts, a fourth-generation Kansan, decided to retire after serving in the House and Senate for nearly 40 years. During interviews, Kansas political strategists said that Rep. Roger Marshall would be well placed to take over from Roberts when he decided to retire. Former Senator Bob Dole, along with current senators Roberts and Jerry Moran, all represented the first congressional district to be elected by Marshall to the House.

Marshall, an obstetrician-gynecologist who delivered more than 5,000 babies, told CNN that he and his wife "would seriously talk about" presenting themselves if "Roberts, age 82, retires." Marshall added that he would never "run, ever" against the senator, that he did not see Roberts retiring in a "near future", that Roberts did a "great job", especially with Farm Bill, and that he considers the senator as such. a mentor.

"I will cross this bridge when we get there," Marshall said. "I do not think Senator Roberts is going anywhere, I can not emphasize enough that we fully support him."

As for 84-year-old Inhofe, he told CNN that he "will not" necessarily run for the race.

"The last time I ran, all they could say, was" Inhofe, you're too old to sit in the US Senate, "said Inhofe." My answer was when I am told to fly planes backwards, then I am too old to fly in the US Senate. "

Inhofe noted that he always flies backwards.

"It's true, I'm eligible," he said. "I have not planned to leave."

Adam Levy and Eric Bradner of CNN contributed to this report.

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