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After another relatively dry summer Friday, the chances of showers and storms will increase for Acadiana this weekend.
And over the weekend, a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean will be closely watched as it slowly gets closer to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Locally, look for another day of partially sunny, hot and humid Friday, with temperatures exceeding 90 ° C and heat indexes reaching 102-103.
The chances of rain should remain quite low, close to 10% for our Friday, but should increase this weekend.
A high peak of high pressure that has been the dominant feature of our forecast in recent days will slide east this weekend, opening the door to an increase in tropical humidity in the region and to an atmosphere more unstable.
All this represents an increased chance, nearly 40-50%, mainly for the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.
The highs of this weekend will be closer to the first 80 years thanks to the clouds and additional showers expected.
Last FutureCast:
Next week, this should become quite interesting for the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico.
A disturbance in the far west / southwest of the Caribbean, just east of Central America, is expected to head north-west slowly over the weekend.
At the present time, high winds (and shear) remain very hostile to any development … and the system could actually dissipate over the land before reaching the Gulf.
But at this point, a wide and weak area of low pressure is expected to advance to the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday and then to the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
At the same time, the high winds will begin to calm down during the disruption, which will eventually turn into a tropical depression and / or tropical storm as early as Tuesday … maybe somewhere in the center of the Gulf of Mexico .
As of Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a medium / moderate probability of development, at 40%, over a period of 3 to 5 days.
It is far too early to ask if there will be an organized storm in the Gulf next week or not, and where the system could finally be used.
But for the moment, areas from southeastern Louisiana to Florida should monitor this potential system, and it is more than likely that rains will be needed by Wednesday / Thursday of next week.
According to European models, deep tropical moisture will advance into the Gulf early next week to reach the northern Gulf Coast by Wednesday and / or Thursday.
Model of atmospheric humidity prediction of European model:
Although Thursday's GFS operational model is not too focused on the development of a specific storm, the European model advocates about 70% chance of forming a tropical depression in the southern Gulf and about 40 % probability of development of a tropical storm in the center of the gulf.
In case you are interested, the risk of developing a hurricane, according to the European model on Thursday, was 10% or less.
The trend in the US next week is going to change with a fairly large trough in the west that is starting to move a bit further east, which could open the door to any potential system for moving toward the north then north-east … it is a preliminary scenario.
If that were the case, there could be rain in the Acadiana area, but the deepest tropical moisture could just be in the eastern part of the area … if that were to happen, the system could help to make the areas drier and slightly cooler conditions at Acadiana later in the week and at the following weekend … fingers crossed.
But if a ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States is stronger than the models predict, we could be affected by more tropical conditions and be less optimistic about drier / more dry weather. cold on the road.
Last European model operational:
At the end of the day, stay tuned for updates to this system as the way it will work in the future is likely to change.
The next named system in the Atlantic Basin will be "Michael".
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