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Adam Taylor
Foreign journalist who writes on a variety of topics
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(John Thys)
It has been more than two years since British voters demanded that the country leave the European Union, shocking their leaders, the continent and the world. But if the vote was a political earthquake, the reality of Brexit has so far been a month of months of stalled negotiations with little progress.
In view of a major summit in Brussels Wednesday between British Prime Minister Theresa May and the leaders of the 27 other member states of the European Union. nations, negotiations between British and European negotiators seem to have failed once again. With about six months before Britain leaves the bloc, negotiations are theoretically stalled. But the way they will end up is more blurred than ever.
"It's not an ordinary final phase," wrote Therese Raphael of Bloomberg. this week. "All the major elements are still on the board and just about all the range of potential results – no agreement to any Brexit, and everything else – remain real opportunities."
May still has to come up with a plan that satisfies the rest of Europe and her party at home, which is increasingly shared between those who support May and those who think she's driving a too lenient market – and that could potentially replace it.
May was expected to outline an agreement on Wednesday, but that too failed. The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, said on Tuesday that there was "no reason to be optimistic" for progress to be made at the summit.
The biggest problem, the fate of the Irish border, "looks like a new version of the Gordian knot," Tusk said, according to the Guardian. "Unfortunately, I can not see a new version of Alexander the Great."
When Britain leaves Europe, its only land border with a US The Member State will be the one currently open between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. Given the recent violence in this country – not to mention the considerable cross-border trade – there is little desire to re-establish a hard border with physical controls and customs controls. But no one has yet figured out how to avoid doing it.
A truck crosses the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland on October 9th. (Charles Mcquillan / Getty Images)
May played with the idea of keeping Britain in the EU. customs regime on a temporary basis, giving both parties more time to reach a permanent agreement on the border issue. EU. Meanwhile, leaders have suggested that only Northern Ireland remains in the customs union for the time being, while the rest of Britain is going away.
But May's government depends on the support of the Democratic Unionist Party, a North Irish party that is opposed to the idea of trade barriers that would separate the region from the rest of Britain. Members suggested withdrawing support if such barriers were erected, impeding May's already weak rule. In the meantime, the Irish Government reiterated that a decision on the matter could not be postponed or postponed.
The Irish border is far from the only unresolved issue in the Brexit negotiations. But it is a revelation that shows how difficult it is to find compromises on major issues involving parties with radically different interests.. And time is running out: the deadline for reaching an agreement is March 27th. Any agreement must be ratified before the European and British parliaments.
William Booth and Karla Adams, of the Post, explained how a Brexit "without agreement" could be serious: immobilized aircraft, massive traffic jams at ports, empty grocery shelves and even drug shortages. This may be the worst scenario, but there is no reason not to take it seriously. Indeed, some Britons have already started sourcing essential supplies, much like the "Doomsday Preppers" we see in the United States.
A recent study published by the UK's Institute for Government suggested five scenarios to determine how things might unfold over the next few months. Only one would lead to an "orderly exit" for Britain from the EU. – Everything else was "not agreed".
Who is to blame for this? To be honest, there is enough for everyone. But it seems likely that May, who barely survived a disastrous election in June, will get the essential. If it falls, former allies like Boris Johnson, who is much harder to cook at Brexit, will not fail to leap.
The truth is that no other leader could do better under the same circumstances. Sam Knight, in his long profile of May, suggested that the British Prime Minister was facing an impossible situation, with populist claims on one side, practical realities on the other and no way to really reconcile them. "May's best hope was to contain the damage from all sides," Knight wrote.
In the meantime, there is a country to go through – at least in theory. The UK government remains almost exclusively focused on leaving the EU. "The country – as an administrative entity – has virtually ceased to function," Businessweek recently said. "Brexit, Brexit, Brexit", told New Yorker Guy Verhofstadt, European Parliament coordinator for Brexit. "Can you imagine a country that, for years, time stops?"
We do not know when the clock will restart. Even if the Brexit can be removed, other complications await us. May spoke with President Trump of their hope for a "big and ambitious" trade deal between the UK and the UK, but a senior British official told Bloomberg that this idea was not that a dream. Trump, at the helm of a much larger economy, will only agree to a difficult deal on his own terms.
John Major, perhaps the only former British Prime Minister living to enjoy a seemingly reputable appearance, summed up the problem with a speech in London this week. After Brexit, Britain will be a "medium-sized, medium-sized country that will no longer be over-fueled by its alliances," he told the audience. "Suddenly, the world will be a little colder."
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