The referendum in Macedonia makes the situation difficult for the West

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On Sunday, the strangest geopolitical dispute in Europe has almost come to an end.

For nearly three decades, Greece and Macedonia have been fighting over the latter's name. The Greeks declared that "Macedonia", which is also the name of a region of northern Greece, represented a culture and history that rightly belonged to them. They expressed their dissatisfaction by preventing Macedonia from joining both the European Union and NATO.

Then, this summer, both countries hit a potentially historic agreement: the smallest country would be renamed North Macedonia and Greece would abandon its objections to the introduction of its neighbor in the EU. and fold of NATO. Macedonian voters went to the polls Sunday to vote on a referendum that would approve the deal.

But while the results largely approved the compromise with Greece, only one-third of eligible voters cast ballots. This was not enough for the required 50% participation rate that Prime Minister Zoran Zaev – leader of the "yes" campaign – hoped to confer popular legitimacy. Zaev hailed the success of the vote, but now faces an uncertain fight with the opposition in parliament.

The low participation rate was seen as a blow not only to the efforts of the "yes" camp, but also to its noisy supporters in Brussels, Berlin and Washington. Last month, a train of European dignitaries, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, passed through Skopje, the Macedonian capital, calling on voters to "seize a unique opportunity in their country." life".

Former US President George W. Bush, who called for Macedonia's membership of NATO in 2008, issued a letter last week in which he urged Macedonians to "write a new, more upbeat story" for their country. "The largest alliance of history for freedom holds the place you love in the country you love," said Bush, "and I look forward to the day when the United States of America" America proudly welcome the Republic of North Macedonia as our new ally, the 30th member of NATO. "

Instead, the vote in Macedonia has highlighted wider divisions in Europe and the ambivalence that many people feel about its key institutions.. A center-right nationalist opposition party pushed for a boycott of the vote, and the country's president, Gjeorge Ivanov, suggested that the name change would be a "historic suicide."

In the remarks made on Monday, Ivanov said "The silent majority decided," echoing the rhetoric once used by President Trump. He then spoke directly of Trump's speech at the United Nations last week, in which the US president once again thumbed his nose at the liberalism of the international community. "A few days ago," Ivanov said"President Donald Trump has declared that freedom, peace and democracy are only possible in sovereign and independent countries, and yesterday the Macedonian people demonstrated their sovereign will."

Evelyn Farkas, a member of the Atlantic Council and former head of the State Department working in the Balkans, said the boycott could be interpreted as a "difficult moment" for Zaev's opponents, many of whom are pro-EU . and would have little qualms about supporting the referendum in a different political context. But partisan quarrels in Skopje may have revealed a more serious dysfunction.

"The issue is not just whether Macedonia joins NATO or the EU. But it is also a vote of potential trust in these institutions and in democracy, "Farkas said in a phone call with reporters. "Fortunately, this result is not totally negative. But that raises a lot of questions and red flags. "

As pointed out by my colleague Michael Birnbaum, one of the main issues has been the extent of the Russian influence. In the weeks leading up to the referendum, Western officials complained of alleged Kremlin attempts to revive campaigns to suppress the vote. Visiting Skopje last month. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis warned against Russia's efforts to influence.

"Analysts said that Macedonia had been targeted by a wave of misinformation, largely linked to Russia, with dozens of new websites offering false information about the content of the deal and the consequences of its membership, "wrote Birnbaum. In July, a group of boisterous football fans said that they had been paid to stir up violence during the protests that pitted the deal. Greece has banned four Russian diplomats from that country to take action to foment nationalist opposition to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' willingness to compromise with Skopje. "

The turbulent geopolitics of the moment hovers over a complicated story. The dispute between Greece and Macedonia has been in force since the latter separated from the former Yugoslavia in 1991. Greece considered an independent state of the same name as the region to the north of it. as an implicit territorial threat. It imposed a trade embargo on this nascent country in the 1990s and prevented Macedonia from joining many international organizations, including a 2008 veto against Macedonia's bid to join NATO.

The points of disagreement in the conflict imply a moving struggle against the legacy of the former Macedonian conqueror, Alexander the Great, whom both countries claim as part of their national heritage. Zaev's decision this year to change the name of his country's main airport – once Skopje airport Alexander the Great – was an indispensable measure of confidence that paved the way for his agreement with Tsipras this summer.

But symbolism can not compensate for the pitfalls of governance. Leonid Bershidsky, from Bloomberg View, noted that Zaev's strategy overshadowed the stagnation and brain drain of his country. Along with the boycott, a cocktail of local frustrations fueled the low turnout on Sunday.

"The hopes born this year for the region are not dead, but it will take more than the prospect of joining the EU and NATO to find specific solutions to long-term problems. date, "wrote Bershidsky. "Patient political maneuvers, better day-to-day economic management and prudent diplomacy remain the best chance for the Western Balkans."

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