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As expected, Hurricane Rosa weakens when it moves on the colder waters of the north coast of Mexico. However, Rosa will bring flooding rains in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States over the next few days.
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Rosa had 85 mph winds, a Category 1 hurricane, at 5:00 pm Eastern Time Sunday, and was located 385 miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.
Rosa is expected to move north Sunday. Meanwhile, a trough begins to emerge over the Pacific Ocean and head east to the west coast of the United States. As Rosa approaches the Baja California peninsula on Monday, a tropical storm will push deeper and deeper tropical moisture into the southwestern United States.
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Rosa will bring up to 10 inches of rain in parts of Mexico on Monday. Then, the interaction of tropical moisture with the future trough will generate abundant and widespread rains in the southwest during the next few days. On site, 1 to 4 inches of rain will cause dangerous flash floods, debris flows and possible landslides in the desert.
Deep tropical moisture will cause rainfall rates to approach 2 to 3 inches per hour, particularly in parts of southern Nevada and Arizona. Rains of up to 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected in parts of the Southwest, especially over most of Arizona. Flash floods are possible with conditions that are rapidly deteriorating due to the dispersed nature of the tropical rains.
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It would be extremely inadvisable to venture into the desert on foot with the threat of tropical rains. Heavy rains could cause ravines in canyons and thunderstorms would cause gusty winds and local dust.
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The approaching trough will bring abundant rainfall locally to parts of the southern California coast. Total precipitation greater than half an inch is possible, which could result in light debris flows and slippery roads. This would be the first rain of the region of their wet season.
A few scattered tropical rain showers will begin to approach Arizona late Sunday and early Monday, before rains spread late Monday and Tuesday. Heavy rains will spread in the four corners on Tuesday and last until Wednesday.
Dramatic temperature changes
The month of October can be marked by strong temperature variations across the United States as the Arctic cools, but the tropics remain quite hot. Sometimes this leads to dramatic changes in temperature over short distances. There is an excellent example of dramatic temperature differences across the central United States on Sunday.
There is a temperature difference of almost 20 degrees between Kansas City (Missouri) and Omaha (Nebraska), and between St. Louis and Des Moines (Iowa).
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Over the next few days, the persistent summer heat will try to grow and develop again. Much of the central and eastern United States is expected to experience a warm start to the year with extensive 1980s ranging from the southern plains to parts of the northeast. The city of New York could reach 80 degrees Tuesday, about 10 degrees above average.
Our long-term climate outlook indicates a higher than average risk of above-average temperatures in the eastern United States through the first half of October.
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