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Two of Donald Trump's biggest cheerleaders are on the ballot in the Tuesday night primary elections. Unfortunately for them, Trump supports their opponents instead.
Former representative Michael Grimm (RN.Y.) and South Carolina businessman John Warren imitated Trump's impetuous style on the campaign trail and swore to the support in his office. But they clash with Trump-backed Republican incumbents, for the Staten Island-based House District and the Governor of South Carolina, respectively. Trump supports MP Dan Donovan – although Grimm says Donovan, who voted against the GOP's tax law, does not support the president enough – and Governor Henry McMaster, who was Trump's first elected in 2016.
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The typically spontaneous Trump shows a pragmatic tendency: Donovan should probably re-elect himself, while Grimm, who has served a prison sentence for tax evasion, could potentially put another Republican seat on the battlefield map this fall. But Trump's approval also speaks of how he balances his spontaneous side with his responsibilities to the incumbents as a leader of the Republican Party.
Democrats are also choosing a candidate to face popular governor Larry Hogan in Maryland – where they could potentially elect the first African-American governor of the state later this year – and both parties are setting up open governor races in Colorado and Oklahoma. Several House Democrats' battlefield primaries are also at work in New York, alongside exceptionally robust primary challenges for New York City members.
The holes end in South Carolina runoff at 19 hours. Eastern Time and at 8 pm in Mississippi. In the primaries, polls will close in Maryland and Oklahoma at 8 pm, Colorado and New York at 9 pm. and at 22 hours. in Utah.
Here are the main things to watch for POLITICO:
The marshy peaks of Trump
John Warren promised to "dump the swamp" in the state capitol when he was elected governor. Grimm's campaign signs have "Trump 2020" printed on the back.
And yet, Trump went in another direction in both races. He is supporting Donovan in New York, giving the former Staten Island District attorney and his outside allies coverage of airline advertisements proclaiming him an ally of Trump. (Donovan went on television to tout a bill that would require post offices to post pictures of the president.) And Trump stays with McMaster, the governor of South Carolina and political veteran who rose to the top of the list. its state. picked Nikki Haley from the government to join his office last year.
While the president has played an important role this year in the Republican primaries with an anti-Trump candidate, his support has not always been enough to stimulate a candidate on the line of arrival in the United States. other races – as illustrious former Alabama Senator Luther Strange lost his special primary to Moore last year. Trump also lost the first time that he waded into a congressional primary, on behalf of the current Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.) In 2016.
But both Donovan and McMaster's primary could be close, and any bump in support for Trump's approval could be critical. The only independent poll in the 11th district of New York showed that Donovan was at the head of Grimm, and the poor performance of McMaster two weeks ago is ringing the alarm.
Romney launches his third act in electoral politics
Another unexpected endorser of Trump on the ballot Tuesday? Mitt Romney – the former Massachusetts governor and two-time presidential candidate Senate candidate in Utah, who in 2016 stated that Trump had "neither the temperament nor the judgment to be President, and his personal qualities would mean that America would cease to be a brilliant city on a hill. "
Romney is the heavy favorite in Tuesday's primary. Pre-election polls show that he won about three votes for each of them going to state representative Mike Kennedy, who urged GOP voters to pick somebody up. more favorable to the president.
For now, Romney is trying to walk a righteous tightrope – embracing the approval of a man about whom he wrote in an election tribune in the Salt Lake Tribune, "I'm going continue to speak when the president says or does something that divides, racist, sexist, anti-immigrant, dishonest or destructive to democratic institutions. "
Tuesday's vote count will be a good indicator of the strength of a line – at least in Utah, where Trump got only 45% of the vote in 2016.
New York agitated Democratic activists reject incumbent incumbents
Four long-time Democratic members in New York are challenged on Tuesday by young Liberal candidates, arguing that it's time for the new blood in the congressional delegation of the city.
Three of the four have been in Congress for at least two decades. Rep. Eliot Engel, 71, is seeking a 16th term in the House. Carolyn Maloney, 72, is in her 13th term in the House. Joe Crowley, 56, is in his tenth term. Yvette Clarke, 53, is the newcomer, elected for the first time in 2006.
Crowley has the most at stake. The Speaker of the House Democratic Caucus could be a speaker or a minority leader waiting. But his opponent, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, portrayed Crowley as disconnected from reality, especially with nearly half of his Latino voters. The district's geography – which contains parts of Queens and the Bronx – favors Crowley. In the 2016 presidential primary, twice as many votes in the district were cast in Queens, where Crowley dominates Democratic politics, as were enumerated from the Bronx, from where Ocasio-Cortez comes from.
Maloney's opponent, former Obama employee Suraj Patel, is the most provocative. A New York Times story last week described how Patel and his employees use dating and connection apps to draw unsuspecting singles into political discussions, and Patel's campaign has condoms bearing the campaign logo. (The Maloney District includes the East Side of Manhattan and parts of western Queens and Brooklyn.)
Engel faces off against three opponents in his district of North Bronx and South Westchester, especially the self-financed Jonathan Lewis, who contributed or lent $ 656,000 to his campaign. Clarke's opponent, community organizer Adem Bunkeddeko, was approved by the New York Times, who could have influence in parts of the Brooklyn District.
Another sign of the changing mood in the Democratic Party of the city, three of the four incumbents were unopposed at the primary two years ago – and Maloney, the only one to face a main challenger, won 90% of the votes against a nominal. opponent.
The energy left has brought these new candidates to the race – but Tuesday will show if they pose a real threat to the existing political order.
Democratic funders go for broke
David Trone, co-owner of the Total Wine & More chain of stores, really wants to become a member of Congress. Trone, who finished second in a Democratic primary of Maryland's 8th district two years ago, spent $ 13.4 million – but only won 27.1% of the vote. (That's over $ 189 per vote, for those who keep the score at home.)
Trone was defeated but unbowed. When Representative John Delaney (D-Md.) Announced last year that he was planning to forgo re-election in a neighboring district to take advance on a presidential bid, Trone's & # 39; 39 is rushed for the new neighborhood – and for his checkbook. Trone spent $ 11.5 million on its first offer in the state's 6th district, which includes all of West Maryland, but takes in some of the tony D.C. suburbs in Montgomery County.
But the appointment is far from being a sure thing. Trone faces seven other candidates in Tuesday's primary – including Del. Aruna Miller, who has been approved by EMILY's List.
In Colorado, another Democrat also made an eight-figure investment just to win a primary. Rep. Jared Polis has launched $ 11.3 million of his own money in a campaign for the governor.
Like Trone, Polis's main challenger is a woman: the former State Treasurer, Cary Kennedy. Most see Polis as a favorite in the field of the four candidates, which also includes former Senator Mike Johnston and Lieutenant Governor Donna Lynne.
Even though he wins the nomination, Polis faces a competitive and expensive general election bout in the state of the battlefield. The GOP primary favorite is the state treasurer, Walker Stapleton, but Stapleton faces another self-financed, former state representative Victor Mitchell, who lent his campaign to just under $ 5 million.
Maryland Dems are fighting for the chance to face Hogan
There are nine candidates on the ballot for the Democratic nomination in Maryland, but most observers view the contest as a two-man race between the Prince George Rushern Baker County Executive and the ### 39, former president of NAACP Ben Jealous. -American governor in state history if they could beat Hogan in the fall.
The Democratic primary drew parallels with the 2016 presidential primary: Jealous was an early supporter of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), And Sanders campaigned with Jealous in the last days before Tuesday's primary. Jealous has also had important out-of-state personalities – like Cory Booker (D-N.J.) And Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) – visit Maryland for her events.
But the Baker-Jealous battle is also a geography test: Everyone comes from one of two poles of democratic politics in the state. More than 1 in 5 Democratic voters in the state reside in Prince George County (21 percent), where Baker served as the county's executive for the past eight years. Jealous comes from the city of Baltimore (14% of registered Democrats) and should win.
Montgomery County – north and west of BC – could be decisive: 18% of registered Democrats live there and neither can claim it as a bastion.
Lamborn reborn?
Rep. Doug Lamborn of Colorado is fighting to avoid becoming the third Republican to lose his fame this year. He is lucky that he even has a chance.
Lamborn is only on the ballot thanks to a federal judge, who has reinstated Congressman six terms after the state's Supreme Court has dismissed him for primary school. use of inadmissible signature pickers.
Back on the ballot, Lamborn is not a sure thing. He has already had problems in the primary: He was nearly eliminated in the 2014 primary, and he almost did not qualify for the 2016 ballot at a GOP convention, barely gaining enough delegates to go to primary school.
A potential factor in his favor: There are four other Republicans on the ballot Tuesday who could split the anti-Lamborn vote.
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