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The toughest opponent is the one you do not see coming.
Senator Ted Cruz is the heavyweight political champion in his home state of Texas. In 2012, his long run that beat Lt. Governor David Dewhurst was nothing short of a miracle. His fame grew when he made obstruction for 21 hours on the Senate floor and defended the government's closure on spending, which made him the conservative favorite in the presidential election of 2016.
Now, Cruz faces a new type of challenger to Beto O'Rourke, who has come out of nowhere and is launching another type of punch.
In many ways, O'Rourke's rise echoes that of Barack Obama in 2004.
Both men are charismatic, with interesting life stories. O'Rourke grew up in El Paso, played bass in the Foss rock band, went to Columbia University and returned home after a few years to co-found his own software company. O & # 39; Rourke, 45, walks with a braggart, skateboarding in the restaurant car parks, taking night owls to the road, talking about young indiscretions and shooting videos on iPhone that become commercials of 30 seconds. for journalists and to give hope to Texan Democrats, who are in the political desert since 1994, the last time a state office was occupied by a Dem.
In a recent telephone interview, 47-year-old Cruz tells me that he is going to open the Beto strike. "Every week, we see fervent profiles in my opponent's media that describe him breathless. The most frequently used adjective is Kennedy-esque. He said about O'Rourke's noble profiles.
The O'Rourke campaign is celebrity-driven and funded primarily by enthusiastic digital donors, while relying on a small, close-knit group of young campaign workers who are committed to not hiring experienced consultants.
But as for the last stages of this fight, O'Rourke can not handle it, says Cruz.
"Usually in Texas, in general elections, Democrats claim to at least go to the center. Congressman O'Rourke does not do it, "says Cruz. "He voted against tax cuts and wants to raise taxes for Texans. It supports Obama's regulations that hit the state of Texas in the oil and gas industries, as well as in farmers and ranchers. He wants to extend ObamaCare to a complete socialized medicine, putting the federal government in charge of health care and your doctors. Not only is it opposed to a wall, but it also supports the city-sanctuaries and is open to the abolition of ICE and the entire Department of Homeland Security. In terms of gun control, he tweeted how proud he is of having an F rating from the NRA.
"And in 2014, he was one of only eight members of the House to vote against the funding of Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system as Hamas rained down rockets at Israel – which virtually all Republicans and Democrats have voted.
Although Democrats insist that Texans are turning blue, Democrats in this state tend to be more conservative than Beto and want to know how a candidate is positioning himself on issues. Currently, RealClearPolitics places Cruz on Beto by 4.5 percentage points in a "spin" match, but a new Quinnipiac poll shows Cruz up 9 percentage points. And for all the discussions of a blue Texas, Republican Pete Flores won last week a race in the Senate in a district of Lone Star. Hillary Clinton took 12 points, making the red seat the first time in 139 years.
Cruz's problem is mainly that of the image. He is intelligent and lets his opponents know it. Unfortunately, this can be shocking even for those voters who share their goals and values.
Although the White House's budget chief, Mick Mulvaney, hinted that Cruz may lose his re-election due to sympathy issues in a Washington Post audio cassette, President Trump pledged to visit Texas. And we can certainly expect Cruz to throw a lot of punches at Beto in the coming debates.
He still has one thing in his arsenal: the relentlessness. "I'll spend the last weeks campaigning, bombing the state," he says. "We go to big cities, small towns. We do town halls throughout the state. We see energy and enthusiasm. But this election will be resolved by participation. The good news is that there are many more conservatives than liberals in Texas.
The question is: are the Conservatives coming? "If we present ourselves, we will have a very good election in November."
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